基于灰色关联法的地震灾区泥石流危险性评价——以北川县泥石流为例
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摘要
汶川地震后,地震灾区泥石流具有暴发临界雨量小,规模大,危险性高的特点。在考虑降雨和地震作用下,采用灰色关联法分析北川县72条泥石流沟的泥石流规模、流域面积、主沟长度、流域相对高差、流域切割密度、不稳定沟床比、年均降雨量和地震烈度8个影响因子的权重,在此基础上建立震区泥石流危险性评价模型并进一步对其进行危险性评价。结果表明:影响因子中,年均降雨量和地震烈度所占权重最大;运用本文模型得到的评价结果与刘希林模型基本一致,但危险度值相对提高,其中有7条泥石流沟危险度提高一个等级。
After the Wenchuan earthquake,debris flows in quake-hit area have the characteristics of smaller critical rainfall,greater scale and higher risk.Considering the effect of rainfall and earthquake,grey correlation method has been used to analyse the weights of scale,valley area,gully length,basin elevation difference,cutting density, unstable groove proportion,average annual rainfall and seismic intensity of 72 debris flow valleys in Beichuan. Thus a hazard assessment model of debris flow in quake-hit area has been established to evaluate this 72 debris flow valleys.And research results show the following: the weights of average annual rainfall and seismic intensity are greater than the other factors;the evaluation results based on the model raised in this essay are roughly consistent with those given by Liu Xilin.But the risk value improves relatively,and the risk of seven debris flow valleys among those improves a grade.
After the Wenchuan earthquake,debris flows in quake-hit area have the characteristics of smaller critical rainfall,greater scale and higher risk.Considering the effect of rainfall and earthquake,grey correlation method has been used to analyse the weights of scale,valley area,gully length,basin elevation difference,cutting density, unstable groove proportion,average annual rainfall and seismic intensity of 72 debris flow valleys in Beichuan. Thus a hazard assessment model of debris flow in quake-hit area has been established to evaluate this 72 debris flow valleys.And research results show the following: the weights of average annual rainfall and seismic intensity are greater than the other factors;the evaluation results based on the model raised in this essay are roughly consistent with those given by Liu Xilin.But the risk value improves relatively,and the risk of seven debris flow valleys among those improves a grade.
引文
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[7]苏鹏程,韦方强,冯汉中,等.“8.13”四川清平群发性泥石流灾害成因及影响[J].山地学报,2011,29(3):337～347.Su Pengcheng,Wei Fangqiang,Feng Hanzhong,et al.Causes andeffects of group-occurring debris flow disasters in Qingping town,Mianyuan river upstream,Sichuan.Journal of Mountain Science,2011,29(3):337～347.
[8]倪化勇,郑万模,唐业旗,等.绵竹清平8.13群发泥石流成因、特征与发展趋势[J].水文地质工程地质,2011,38(3):129～133.Ni Huayong,Zheng Wanmo,Tang Yeqi,et al.Formation,characteristics and trend of the group debris flows occurred onAugust 13 in Qingping,Mianzhu county.Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2011,38(3):129～133.
[9]刘传正.地质灾害勘查指南[M].北京:地质出版社,2000.Liu Chuanzheng.Geological Hazard Exploration Guide.Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2000.
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[11]刘涌江,胡厚田,白志勇.泥石流危险度评价的神经网络[J].地质与勘探,2001,37(2):84～87.Liu Yongjiang,Hu Houtian,Bai Zhiyong.Artificial neural net-work method for evaluating the dangerous degree of debris flows.Geology and Prospecting,2001,37(2):84～87.
[12]刘厚成,谷秀芝.基于可拓层次分析法的泥石流危险性评价研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2010,21(3):61～66.Liu Houcheng,Gu Xiuzhi.Hazard assessment of debris flowalong highway based on extension AHP.The Chinese Journal ofGeological Hazard and Control,2010,21(3):61～66.
[13]王欢,丁明涛,陈廷方.基于GIS的三江并流区泥石流危险性评价[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(5):167～171.Wang Huan,Ding Mingtao,Chen Tingfang.GIS-based riskassessment of debris flows in Three-Parallel-River area.Bulletinof Soil and Water Conservation,2011,31(5):167～171.
[14]刘涌江,胡厚田,白志勇.泥石流危险度评价[J].水土保持通报,2000,14(2):84～87.Liu Yongjiang,Hu Houtian,Bai Zhiyong.Evaluation of debrisflows according to dangerous degree.Bulletin of Soil and WaterConservation,2000,14(2):84～87.
[15]邹翔,崔鹏,韦方强,等.灰色关联法在泥石流活动性评价中的应用[J].山地学报,2003,21(3):360～364.Zou Xiang,Cui Peng,Wei Fangqiang,et al.Application of grey-correlation method to activity evaluation of debris flow.Journal ofMountain Science,2003,21(3):360～364.
[16]杨月巧,胡俊锋,郗蒙浩.基于灰色关联法的舟曲泥石流灾害影响因素分析[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(3):139～144.Yang Yueqiao,Hu Junfeng,Xi Menghao.Analysis of influencefactors of debris flow disaster in Zhouqu based on grey relevancemethod.Journal of Natural Disasters,2011,20(3):139～144.
[17]刘希林.我国泥石流危险度评价研究:回顾与展望[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(4):1～8.Liu Xilin.Debris flow hazard assessment in China:A review andperspective.Journal of Natural Disasters,2002,11(4):1～8.
[18]邓聚龙.灰色理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,1998.Deng Julong.Basis of Grey Theory.Wuhan:HuazhongUniversity of Science and Technology Press,1998.
[19]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.Liu Sifeng,Dang Yaoguo,Fang Zhigeng,et al.Theory andApplication of Grey Systems.Beijing:Science Press,2004.
[2]马煜,马东涛,李锋,等.汶川强震区泥石流特征研究-以银厂沟东林寺-海汇桥段为例[J].桂林理工大学学报,2011,31(3):351～356.Ma Yu,Ma Dongtao,Li Feng,et al.Characteristics of earthquakedebris flow in Wenchuan earthquake area-A case from Donglinsi-Haihui bridge in Yinchang gully.Journal of Guilin University ofTechnology,2011,31(3):351～356.
[3]唐川,梁京涛.汶川震区北川9.24暴雨泥石流特征研究[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(6):751～758.Tang Chuan,Liang Jingtao.Characteristics of debris flows inBeichuan epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake triggered byrainstorm on September 24,2008.Journal of Engineering Geology,2008,16(6):751～758.
[4]铁永波,唐川.四川省北川县暴雨泥石流的发育与汶川地震的响应特征[J].灾害学,2011,26(4):73～76.Tie Yongbo,Tang Chuan.Response characteristics betweenWenchuan earthquake and the rainfall induced debris flow inBeichuan country,Sichuan.Journal of Catastrophology,2011,26(4):73～76.
[5]汪月鹃.汶川震区北川县暴雨泥石流危险性评价[D].成都:成都理工大学,2009.Wang Yuejuan.Hazard Assessment on Rainstorm Induced DebrisFlows in Beichuan County of Wenchuan Earthquake AffectedArea.Chengdu:Chengdu University of Technology,2009.
[6]许强.四川省8.13特大泥石流灾害特点、成因与启示[J].工程地质学报,2010,18(5):596～608.Xu Qiang.The 13 August 2010 catastrophic debris flows inSichuan province:Characteristics,genetic mechanism andsuggestions.Journal of Engineering Geology,2010,18(5):596～608.
[7]苏鹏程,韦方强,冯汉中,等.“8.13”四川清平群发性泥石流灾害成因及影响[J].山地学报,2011,29(3):337～347.Su Pengcheng,Wei Fangqiang,Feng Hanzhong,et al.Causes andeffects of group-occurring debris flow disasters in Qingping town,Mianyuan river upstream,Sichuan.Journal of Mountain Science,2011,29(3):337～347.
[8]倪化勇,郑万模,唐业旗,等.绵竹清平8.13群发泥石流成因、特征与发展趋势[J].水文地质工程地质,2011,38(3):129～133.Ni Huayong,Zheng Wanmo,Tang Yeqi,et al.Formation,characteristics and trend of the group debris flows occurred onAugust 13 in Qingping,Mianzhu county.Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2011,38(3):129～133.
[9]刘传正.地质灾害勘查指南[M].北京:地质出版社,2000.Liu Chuanzheng.Geological Hazard Exploration Guide.Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2000.
[10]孙广仁,毕海良.模糊数学综合评判法造泥石流沟判别与危险度评价中的应用[J].青海环境,1997,7(2):72～77.Sun Guangren,Bi Hailiang.Application in distinguish betweendebris flow gully and non-debris flow gullyand evaluating thedangerous degree of debris flow by Fuzzy method.Environment ofQinghai,1997,7(2):72～77.
[11]刘涌江,胡厚田,白志勇.泥石流危险度评价的神经网络[J].地质与勘探,2001,37(2):84～87.Liu Yongjiang,Hu Houtian,Bai Zhiyong.Artificial neural net-work method for evaluating the dangerous degree of debris flows.Geology and Prospecting,2001,37(2):84～87.
[12]刘厚成,谷秀芝.基于可拓层次分析法的泥石流危险性评价研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2010,21(3):61～66.Liu Houcheng,Gu Xiuzhi.Hazard assessment of debris flowalong highway based on extension AHP.The Chinese Journal ofGeological Hazard and Control,2010,21(3):61～66.
[13]王欢,丁明涛,陈廷方.基于GIS的三江并流区泥石流危险性评价[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(5):167～171.Wang Huan,Ding Mingtao,Chen Tingfang.GIS-based riskassessment of debris flows in Three-Parallel-River area.Bulletinof Soil and Water Conservation,2011,31(5):167～171.
[14]刘涌江,胡厚田,白志勇.泥石流危险度评价[J].水土保持通报,2000,14(2):84～87.Liu Yongjiang,Hu Houtian,Bai Zhiyong.Evaluation of debrisflows according to dangerous degree.Bulletin of Soil and WaterConservation,2000,14(2):84～87.
[15]邹翔,崔鹏,韦方强,等.灰色关联法在泥石流活动性评价中的应用[J].山地学报,2003,21(3):360～364.Zou Xiang,Cui Peng,Wei Fangqiang,et al.Application of grey-correlation method to activity evaluation of debris flow.Journal ofMountain Science,2003,21(3):360～364.
[16]杨月巧,胡俊锋,郗蒙浩.基于灰色关联法的舟曲泥石流灾害影响因素分析[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(3):139～144.Yang Yueqiao,Hu Junfeng,Xi Menghao.Analysis of influencefactors of debris flow disaster in Zhouqu based on grey relevancemethod.Journal of Natural Disasters,2011,20(3):139～144.
[17]刘希林.我国泥石流危险度评价研究:回顾与展望[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(4):1～8.Liu Xilin.Debris flow hazard assessment in China:A review andperspective.Journal of Natural Disasters,2002,11(4):1～8.
[18]邓聚龙.灰色理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,1998.Deng Julong.Basis of Grey Theory.Wuhan:HuazhongUniversity of Science and Technology Press,1998.
[19]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.Liu Sifeng,Dang Yaoguo,Fang Zhigeng,et al.Theory andApplication of Grey Systems.Beijing:Science Press,2004.
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