基于实例推理系统的滑坡预警判据研究
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摘要
为研究滑坡预警预报指标,建立了31个典型岩质滑坡组成的滑坡数据库,基于滑坡数据库、工程类比和模糊综合评判方法开发了滑坡实例推理系统。首先将滑坡特征属性分为6大项:破坏模式、滑面倾角、滑面类型、边坡岩体结构、边坡倾角、滑坡的诱发因素(降雨、地下水、水库蓄水、开挖、爆破、地震),用11个特征值表示边坡的特征属性;其次采用比值法相似度计算理论在滑坡数据库中搜索与目标边坡最相似的滑坡,通过工程类比给出滑坡预警判据建议值;最后依据模糊综合评判模型修正建议值,得到预警判据确认值,形成滑坡实例推理系统。以锦屏一级水电站为例,通过计算找到了滑坡数据库中与锦屏一级水电站左岸边坡最为相似的5个滑坡实例;其中大冶铁矿狮子山滑坡和安家岭露天矿滑坡有较为完整的变形监测数据,深入分析类似边坡变形破坏过程,分4个阶段给出了锦屏一级水电站左岸边坡预警判据建议值;并建立边坡预警判据修正的模糊综合评判模型,修正相似边坡预警判据,给出锦屏一级水电站左岸边坡进入加速变形阶段的位移速率阀值的精确区间为1.0～1.2 mm/d。
In order to study the early warning index of landslide,a landslide database composed of 31 typical rock landslides is established;and based on the database a landslide case-based reasoning system is developed using engineering analogy and fuzzy comprehensive assessment model.The feature attribute of landslide is divided into 6 items,including failure mode,dip angle of slip plane,slip-zone type,rock mass structure,slope angle,inducing factors in landslide(rainfall,groundwater,reservoir impoundment,excavation,blasting and seismic peak acceleration),whereupon the characteristics of properties of slope is represented by 11 eigenvalues.The most similar slopes are searched from the database using theory of similarity based on ratio method;and the suggested warning criterion is given based on engineering analogy;and then revised criterion is get based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment model.Taking JinpingⅠhydropower station for example,five landslides that are most similar with the slope at left bank of JinpingⅠhydropower station are got.Anjialing open-pit mine landslide and landslide in eastern open pit in Daye among the result have intact deformation monitoring data,so in terms of four periods the early warning criterion of the slope at left bank of JinpingⅠhydropower station is given,based on deep analysis of deformation and failure process of the similar slopes.A fuzzy comprehensive assessment model is established to revise the criterion mentioned above;and exact interval of(1,1.2) mm/d is given which determines the displacement rate threshold when the slope at left bank of JinpingⅠhydropower station develops into the accelerated deformation stage.
In order to study the early warning index of landslide,a landslide database composed of 31 typical rock landslides is established;and based on the database a landslide case-based reasoning system is developed using engineering analogy and fuzzy comprehensive assessment model.The feature attribute of landslide is divided into 6 items,including failure mode,dip angle of slip plane,slip-zone type,rock mass structure,slope angle,inducing factors in landslide(rainfall,groundwater,reservoir impoundment,excavation,blasting and seismic peak acceleration),whereupon the characteristics of properties of slope is represented by 11 eigenvalues.The most similar slopes are searched from the database using theory of similarity based on ratio method;and the suggested warning criterion is given based on engineering analogy;and then revised criterion is get based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment model.Taking JinpingⅠhydropower station for example,five landslides that are most similar with the slope at left bank of JinpingⅠhydropower station are got.Anjialing open-pit mine landslide and landslide in eastern open pit in Daye among the result have intact deformation monitoring data,so in terms of four periods the early warning criterion of the slope at left bank of JinpingⅠhydropower station is given,based on deep analysis of deformation and failure process of the similar slopes.A fuzzy comprehensive assessment model is established to revise the criterion mentioned above;and exact interval of(1,1.2) mm/d is given which determines the displacement rate threshold when the slope at left bank of JinpingⅠhydropower station develops into the accelerated deformation stage.
引文
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[12]钱兆明,顾凤鸣.平朔安家岭露天矿边坡滑坡预报[J].采矿技术,2007,7(4):25-26.
[2]王尚庆,陈磊.长江三峡滑坡监测预报[M].北京:地质出版社,1999.
[3]ROBERTO R.Seismically induced landslide displacements:A predictive model[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58(3/4):337-351.
[4]李秀珍,许强,黄润秋,等.滑坡预报判据研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,14(4):5-11.LI Xiu-zhen,XU Qiang,HUANG Run-qiu,et al.Research on prediction criterion for temporary prediction of landslide[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2003,14(4):5-11.
[5]金海元,徐卫亚,孟永东,等.锦屏一级水电站左岸边坡稳定综合预报研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(10):2058-2063.JIN Hai-yuan,XU Wei-ya,MENG Yong-dong,et al.Research on comprehensive prediction for slope stability at left bank of JinpingⅠhydropower station[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(10):2058-2063.
[6]许强,曾裕平.具有蠕变特点滑坡的加速度变化特征及临滑预警指标研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(6):1099-1106.XU Qiang,ZENG Yu-ping.Research on acceleration variation characteristics of creep landslide and early-warning prediction indicator of critical sliding[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(6):1099-1106.
[7]许强,曾裕平,钱江澎,等.一种改进的切线角及对应的滑坡预警判据[J].地质通报,2009,28(4):501-505.XU Qiang,ZENG Yu-ping,QIAN Jiang-peng,et al.Study of a improved tangential angle and the corresponding landslide pre-warning criteria[J].Geological Bulletin of China,2009,28(4):501-505.
[8]HERRERA G,FERNáNDEZ-MERODO J A,MULAS J,et al.A landslide forecasting model using ground based SAR data:The Portalet case study[J].Engineering Geology,2009,105(3/4):220-230.
[9]黄润秋,许强,戚国庆.降雨及水库诱发滑坡的评价与预测[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.
[10]赵民,闫韶兵,朱民,等.基于实例推理的强夯设计辅助系统[J].工业建筑,2007,37(增刊):892-894.ZHAO Min,YAN Shao-bing,ZHU Min,et al.Aided dynamic consolidation design system using case-based reasoning[J].Industrial Construction,2007,37(Supp.):892-894.
[11]温世亿,李建林,杨学堂,等.卸荷高边坡稳定性分析的多级模糊综合评判[J].岩土力学,2006,27(11):2041-2044.WEN Shi-yi,LI Jian-lin,YANG Xue-tang,et al.Multistage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for analyzing unloading high-steep slope stability[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2006,27(11):2041-2044.
[12]钱兆明,顾凤鸣.平朔安家岭露天矿边坡滑坡预报[J].采矿技术,2007,7(4):25-26.
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