2011年3月11日日本地震海啸越洋传播及对中国影响的数值分析
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摘要
北京时间2011年3月11日13时46分(05∶46UTC)日本东北部近海(38.3°N,142.4°E)发生Mw9.0级特大地震,此次地震的强度为日本近1200a来最强.随后环太平洋的数十个国家和地区的验潮站和海啸监测浮标均监测到了强震引发的越洋海啸,海啸奔袭23h到达南美洲的智利沿岸;此次海啸除了对近场的日本东北部沿岸地区造成了巨大灾害,还对太平洋东岸的部分国家和地区造成了一定程度的影响.地震发生4h后海啸波到达我国台湾东部沿海,6～8h海啸波到达我国大陆东南沿海,受此影响我国发布了第一份海啸蓝色警报.本文利用海啸数值模型对此次地震海啸的产生、越洋传播过程进行了数值模拟,给出了海啸波能量在我国近海及泛太平洋区域分布特征;同时重点模拟分析了海啸波在日本及中国近海传播的波动特征,模拟结果与观测数据吻合良好.最后通过对数值模拟结果的分析,阐述了此次海啸对中国的影响,给出了潜在的日本地震海啸对中国的风险估计.
The Mw=9.0 megathrust earthquake rocked off the northeast coast of Honshu Japan(38.3°N,142.4°E) on March 11,2011 at 13 ∶ 46 Beijing time,which was the most strong earthquake for the past 1200 years in Japan history.A teletsunami was triggered by the huge earthquake and then propagated across the entire Pacific in less than 23 hrs.Tsunami waves were subsequently recorded by a large number of tide gauges throughout the Pacific Ocean and Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami(DART) buoys in the Pacific Ocean.Tsunami not only caused tremendous damage to the northeast coast of Japan,but also impacted a certain extent of some nations and regions which are located on the east Pacific Coast.The initial tsunami wave arrived in the east coast of Taiwan 4 hours later and the southeast coast of Mainland China about 6～8 hours later.The first Tsunami Warning(Phase: Blue) was issued for the event in China.The aim of the present work is to simulate the tsunami generating,propagating throughout the Pacific Ocean,to attain the tsunami energy spatial distribution in the Pacific region and China offshore.We mainly focus on tsunami wave propagation scenarios around Japan and China coastal areas.The simulation results fit well with the observational data.Impact of this event on China coasts was represented quantitatively based on the simulation results and also evaluation of potential risk from Honshu Japan tsunami was implemented.
The Mw=9.0 megathrust earthquake rocked off the northeast coast of Honshu Japan(38.3°N,142.4°E) on March 11,2011 at 13 ∶ 46 Beijing time,which was the most strong earthquake for the past 1200 years in Japan history.A teletsunami was triggered by the huge earthquake and then propagated across the entire Pacific in less than 23 hrs.Tsunami waves were subsequently recorded by a large number of tide gauges throughout the Pacific Ocean and Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami(DART) buoys in the Pacific Ocean.Tsunami not only caused tremendous damage to the northeast coast of Japan,but also impacted a certain extent of some nations and regions which are located on the east Pacific Coast.The initial tsunami wave arrived in the east coast of Taiwan 4 hours later and the southeast coast of Mainland China about 6～8 hours later.The first Tsunami Warning(Phase: Blue) was issued for the event in China.The aim of the present work is to simulate the tsunami generating,propagating throughout the Pacific Ocean,to attain the tsunami energy spatial distribution in the Pacific region and China offshore.We mainly focus on tsunami wave propagation scenarios around Japan and China coastal areas.The simulation results fit well with the observational data.Impact of this event on China coasts was represented quantitatively based on the simulation results and also evaluation of potential risk from Honshu Japan tsunami was implemented.
引文
[1]王培涛,于福江,赵联大等.越洋海啸的数值模拟及其对我国的影响分析.海洋学报,2012,34(2):39-47.Wang P T,Yu F J,Zhao L D,et al.Numerical simulation of trans-oceanics tsunami and its impact analysis on Chinese coasts.Acta Oceanologica Sinica(in Chinese),2012,34(2):39-47.
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[7]Liu Y C,SantoS Angela,Wang S M,et al.Tsunami hazards along Chinese coast from potential earthquakes in South China Sea.Physics of the earth and planetary interiors,2007,163:233-244.
[8]于福江,王培涛,赵联大等.2010年智利地震海啸数值模拟及其对我国沿海的影响分析.地球物理学报,2011,54(4):918-925.Yu F J,Wang P T,Zhao L D,et al.Numerical simulation of 2010Chile tsunami and its impact on.Chinese coasts.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2011,54(4):918-925.
[9]于福江,原野,赵联大等.2010年2月27日智利8.8级地震海啸对我国影响分析.科学通报,2011,56(1):1-8.Yu F J,Yuan Y,Zhao L D,et al.Evaluation of potential hazards from teletsunami in China:Tidal observations of a teletsunami generated by the Chile8.8Mw earthquake.Chinese Science Bulletin.(in Chinese),2011,56(1):1-8.
[10]姚远,蔡树群,王盛安.海啸波数值模拟的研究现状.海洋科学进展,2007,25(4):487-494.Yao Y,Cai S Q,Wang S A.Present Status of Study on Numerical Simulation of Tsunami Wave.Advances in Marine Science(in Chinese).2007,25(4):487-494.
[11]李燕林,毛献忠.深圳海域潮汐海啸波耦合数值研究.海洋学报,2012,34(3):11-18.Li Y L,Mao X Z.Numerical study for tide-tsunami coupling model in Shenzhen Waters.Acta Oceanologica Sinica(in Chinese),2012,34(3):11-18.
[12]张超凡,石耀霖.海啸灾害的数值模拟研究.中国科学院研究生院学报,2008,25(3):289-296.Zhang C F,Shi Y L.Numerical simulation research on tsunami hazards.Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(in Chinese),2008,25(3):289-296.
[13]Mansinha L,Smylie D E.The displacement fields of inclined faults.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1971,61(5):1433-1440.
[14]OkadaY.Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1985,75(4),113-1154.
[15]Wu T R,Chen P F,Wu T T,et al.Numerical study on Tsunamis excited by2006Pingtung earthquake doublet.Terr.Atmos.Ocean.Sci.,2008,19(6):705-715.
[16]Dao M H,Pavel T,Chan E S,et al.Tsunami propagation scenarios in the South China Sea.Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2009,36:67-73.
[17]Imamura F,Goto C.Truncation error in numerical tsunami simulation by the finite difference method.Coastal Engineering(in Japanese),1988,JSCE31,245-263.
[18]Liu P L,Cho Y S,Yoon S B,et al.Numerical simulations of the1960Chilean tsunami propagation and inundation at Hilo,Hawaii∥In Tsunami Progress in Prediction,Disaster Prevention and Warning,edited by Y.Tsuchiya and N.Shut o,Kluwer Academic Publishers,Netherlands,1995:99-115.
[19]Liu P L-F,Wang X M,Andrew J S.Tsunami hazard and early warning system in South China Sea.Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2009,36:2-12.
[20]Wang X M,Liu P L-F.An analysis of2004sumatra earthquake fault plane mechanisms and indian ocean tsunami.J.Hydraulic Res.,2006,44(2):147-154.
[21]Wang X M and Liu P L-F.Numerical simulations of the2004 Indian Ocean tsunamis coastal effects.Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami,2007,1(3):273-297.
[22]Aida I.Numerical experiments for the tsunami propagation—the1954Niigata tsunami and1968Tokachi-oki tsunami.Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute,1969,47:498-512.
[23]Nobuhito Mori,Tomoyuki Takahashi,Tomohiro Yasuda,et al.Survey of2011Tohoku earthquake tsunami inundation and run-up.Geophysical Research Letters,2011,38,L00G14(1-6)..
[24]Charles S.McCreery.Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Intersessional Activities for the PTWS.The24th conference of ICG/PTWS.Beijing,China.in2011.
[25]Harold O M,Frank I G,Titov V V.Tsunami Scattering and Earthquake Faults in the Deep Pacific Ocean.Oceanography,2004,17(1):38-46.
[2]Alexander B.R,Rogerio N.C.Richard E.T.Energy decay of the2004Sumatra Tsunami in the World ocean.Pure and Applied Geophysic,2011,168:1919-1950.
[3]UNESCO-IOC.Tsunami Glossary.IOC information document O.1221.Paris,UNESCO,2006.
[4]温燕玲,朱元清,宋治平等.冲绳海槽地震海啸的数值试验研究.地球物理学进展,2008,23(2):326-332.Wen Y L,Zhu Y Q,Song Z P,et al.Numerical experiment of earthquake tsunami in Okinawa Trough.Progress In Geophysics(in Chinese),2008,23(2):326-332.
[5]温燕林,朱元清,宋治平等.东海海域潜在地震海啸的数值模拟研究.地震学报,2008,30(5):456-463.Wen Y L,Zhu Y Q,Song Z P,et al.Preliminary numerical simulation of potential earthquake-induced tsunami in East China Sea.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2008,30(5):456-463.
[6]潘文亮,王盛安,蔡树群.南海潜在海啸灾害的数值模拟.热带海洋学报,2009,28(6):7-14.Pan W L,Wang S A,Cai S Q.Simulation of potential tsunami hazards in the South China Sea.Journal of Tropical Oceanography(in Chinese).2009,28(6):7-14.
[7]Liu Y C,SantoS Angela,Wang S M,et al.Tsunami hazards along Chinese coast from potential earthquakes in South China Sea.Physics of the earth and planetary interiors,2007,163:233-244.
[8]于福江,王培涛,赵联大等.2010年智利地震海啸数值模拟及其对我国沿海的影响分析.地球物理学报,2011,54(4):918-925.Yu F J,Wang P T,Zhao L D,et al.Numerical simulation of 2010Chile tsunami and its impact on.Chinese coasts.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2011,54(4):918-925.
[9]于福江,原野,赵联大等.2010年2月27日智利8.8级地震海啸对我国影响分析.科学通报,2011,56(1):1-8.Yu F J,Yuan Y,Zhao L D,et al.Evaluation of potential hazards from teletsunami in China:Tidal observations of a teletsunami generated by the Chile8.8Mw earthquake.Chinese Science Bulletin.(in Chinese),2011,56(1):1-8.
[10]姚远,蔡树群,王盛安.海啸波数值模拟的研究现状.海洋科学进展,2007,25(4):487-494.Yao Y,Cai S Q,Wang S A.Present Status of Study on Numerical Simulation of Tsunami Wave.Advances in Marine Science(in Chinese).2007,25(4):487-494.
[11]李燕林,毛献忠.深圳海域潮汐海啸波耦合数值研究.海洋学报,2012,34(3):11-18.Li Y L,Mao X Z.Numerical study for tide-tsunami coupling model in Shenzhen Waters.Acta Oceanologica Sinica(in Chinese),2012,34(3):11-18.
[12]张超凡,石耀霖.海啸灾害的数值模拟研究.中国科学院研究生院学报,2008,25(3):289-296.Zhang C F,Shi Y L.Numerical simulation research on tsunami hazards.Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(in Chinese),2008,25(3):289-296.
[13]Mansinha L,Smylie D E.The displacement fields of inclined faults.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1971,61(5):1433-1440.
[14]OkadaY.Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1985,75(4),113-1154.
[15]Wu T R,Chen P F,Wu T T,et al.Numerical study on Tsunamis excited by2006Pingtung earthquake doublet.Terr.Atmos.Ocean.Sci.,2008,19(6):705-715.
[16]Dao M H,Pavel T,Chan E S,et al.Tsunami propagation scenarios in the South China Sea.Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2009,36:67-73.
[17]Imamura F,Goto C.Truncation error in numerical tsunami simulation by the finite difference method.Coastal Engineering(in Japanese),1988,JSCE31,245-263.
[18]Liu P L,Cho Y S,Yoon S B,et al.Numerical simulations of the1960Chilean tsunami propagation and inundation at Hilo,Hawaii∥In Tsunami Progress in Prediction,Disaster Prevention and Warning,edited by Y.Tsuchiya and N.Shut o,Kluwer Academic Publishers,Netherlands,1995:99-115.
[19]Liu P L-F,Wang X M,Andrew J S.Tsunami hazard and early warning system in South China Sea.Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2009,36:2-12.
[20]Wang X M,Liu P L-F.An analysis of2004sumatra earthquake fault plane mechanisms and indian ocean tsunami.J.Hydraulic Res.,2006,44(2):147-154.
[21]Wang X M and Liu P L-F.Numerical simulations of the2004 Indian Ocean tsunamis coastal effects.Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami,2007,1(3):273-297.
[22]Aida I.Numerical experiments for the tsunami propagation—the1954Niigata tsunami and1968Tokachi-oki tsunami.Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute,1969,47:498-512.
[23]Nobuhito Mori,Tomoyuki Takahashi,Tomohiro Yasuda,et al.Survey of2011Tohoku earthquake tsunami inundation and run-up.Geophysical Research Letters,2011,38,L00G14(1-6)..
[24]Charles S.McCreery.Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Intersessional Activities for the PTWS.The24th conference of ICG/PTWS.Beijing,China.in2011.
[25]Harold O M,Frank I G,Titov V V.Tsunami Scattering and Earthquake Faults in the Deep Pacific Ocean.Oceanography,2004,17(1):38-46.
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