陕西省宝鸡市陈仓区吴家沟滑坡风险评价
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摘要
吴家沟滑坡是2008年汶川Ms8.0级大地震触发的黄土塬边的一个中型滑坡。在野外调查、室内分析测试和滑坡稳定性计算的基础上,参照前人的研究成果,分2种情况对该滑坡进行了地质灾害风险评估,为防灾减灾提供决策依据。评估结果表明,在只考虑强降雨对滑坡影响的情况下,吴家沟滑坡个人风险介于7×10-4～4.375×10-5之间,位于严格详细审查区;在考虑强降雨+地震对滑坡影响的情况下,吴家沟滑坡个人风险介于1.32×10-3～8.325×10-5之间,位于不可接受区和严格详细审查区,人员社会风险位于不可接受区。
Wujiagou landslide is a medium-scale loess landslide triggered by Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake. Based on field investigation,in-door analysis and stability research,referring to previous achievements,landslide risk assessment for Wujiagou landslide has been accomplished under two different conditions in this paper. The result shows that individual risk of landslide is from 7 ×10-4 to 4.375×10-5 when considering only rainfall,which accord with the range of detailed investigation; when taking both rainfall and earthquake into consideration,the individual risk is from 1.32×10-3 to 8.325×10-5 which belong to the range of acceptable and detailed in-vestigation,while the social risk is unacceptable.
Wujiagou landslide is a medium-scale loess landslide triggered by Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake. Based on field investigation,in-door analysis and stability research,referring to previous achievements,landslide risk assessment for Wujiagou landslide has been accomplished under two different conditions in this paper. The result shows that individual risk of landslide is from 7 ×10-4 to 4.375×10-5 when considering only rainfall,which accord with the range of detailed investigation; when taking both rainfall and earthquake into consideration,the individual risk is from 1.32×10-3 to 8.325×10-5 which belong to the range of acceptable and detailed in-vestigation,while the social risk is unacceptable.
引文
[1]吴树仁.突发地质灾害研究某些新进展[J].地质力学学报,2006,12(2):265-273.
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[3]AGS.Guideline for landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk zoning for land use management.Australian geomechanics society landslide task-force landslide zoning working group[J].Australian Geomechanics,2007,42(1):13-36.
[4]AGS.Commentary on guideline for landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk zoning for land use management.Australian geomechanics society landslide taskforce landslide zoning working group[J].Australian Geomechanics,2007,42(1):37-62.
[5]AGS.Commentary on guideline for landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk zoning for land use management.Australian geomechanics society landslide taskforce landslide zoning working group[J].Australian Geomechanics,2007,42(1):63-114.
[6]AGS.Commentary on guideline for landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk zoning for land use management.Australian geomechanics society landslide taskforce landslide zoning working group[J].Australian Geomechanics,2007,42(1):115-158.
[7]吴树仁,石菊松,王涛.突发地质灾害预测评价[J].地质通报,2008,27(11):1753-1763.
[8]Robin Fell,Jordi Corominas,Christophe Bonnard,et al.Guidelines for landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk zoning for land-use plan-ning[J].Engineering Geology,2008,102:85-98.
[9]Robin Fell,Jordi Corominas,Christophe Bonnard,et al.Guidelines for landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk zoning for land-use plan-ning[J].Engineering Geology,2008,102:99-111.
[10]Dai F C,Lee C F,Ngai Y Y.Landslide risk assessment and man-agement:an overview[J].Engineering Geology,2002,64(1):65-87.
[11]Van Westen C J,Van Asch T W J,Socters R.Landslide hazard and risk zonation—Why is it still so difficult?[J].Bull.Eng.Geol.Env.,2005,64:5-23.
[12]Jordi Corominas,JoséMoya.A review of assessing landslide frequen-cy for hazard zoning purposes[J].Engineering Geology,2008,102:193-213.
[13]Wong H N.Landslide risk assessment for individual facilities[C]//The International Conference on Landslide Risk Management.Vancouver,Canada:A.A.Balkema Publishers,2005:237-296.
[14]Kaynia A M,Papathoma-K觟hle M,Neuh覿user B,et al.Proba-bilistic assessment of vulnerability to landslide:Application to the village of Lichtenstein,Baden-Württemberg,Germany[J].Engineer-ing Geology,2008,101:33-48.
[15]张梁,张业成,罗元华,等.地质灾害灾情评价理论与实践[M].北京:地质出版社,1998.
[16]张春山,吴满路,张业成.地质灾害风险评价方法及展望[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,12(1):96-102.
[17]成永刚.近二十年来国内滑坡研究的现状及动态[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2003,14(4):1.
[18]石菊松,石玲,吴树仁.滑坡风险评估的难点和进展[J].地质论评,2007,53(6):797-806.
[19]Fell R,Ho K K S,Lacasse S,et al.Estimating landslides motion mechanism,travel distance and velocity[C]//Hungr O,Fell R,Coun-ture R,et al.Landslide Risk Management.Vancouver,Canada:A.A.Balkema Publishers,2005:99-128.
[20]Leroi E,Bonnard Ch,Fell R,et al.Risk assessment and management[C]//Hungr O,Fell R,Counture R,et al.Landslide Risk Manage-ment.Vancouver,Canada:A.A.Balkema Publishers,2005:159-198.
[21]Leroi E,Bonnard Ch,Corominas J,et al.Landslide hazard and risk zoning for urban planning and development[C]//Hungr O,Fell R,Counture R,et al.Landslide Risk Management.Vancouver,Cana-da:A.A.Balkema Publishers,2005:199-236.
[22]Wilson R A,Moon A T,Hendrickx M,et al.Application of quanti-tative risk assessment to the Lawrence Hargrave Drive Project,New South Wales,Australia[C]//Hungr O,Fell R,Counture R,et al.Landslide Risk Management.Vancouver,Canada:A.A.Balkema Publishers,2005:589-588.
[23]Thomas Nix,Oswald Marinoni.Quantitative landslide risk analysis and risk evaluation for publicly accessible geosites[M].IAEG,2006.
[24]沈娜.唐川金沙江水电站工程区典型单体滑坡风险评价探讨[J].云南地理环境研究,2008,20(1):45-51.
[25]唐亚明,张茂省,薛强.陕西延安虎头峁滑坡社会风险评价[J].地质通报,2008,27(11):1780-1786.
[26]Francesca Ardizzone,Mauro Cardinali,Fausto Guzzetti,et al.Landslide hazard assessment,vulnerability,estimation,and risk evaluation at the basin scale[C]//The First World Landslide Forum,Parallel Session Volume.2008:71-74.
[27]Marco Uzielli,Farrokh Nadim,Suzanne Lacasse,et al.A concep-tual framework for quantitative estimation of physical vulnerability to landslides[J].Engineering Geology,2008,102:251-256.
[28]中国地震局震害防治司.汶川8级地震未校正加速度记录[J].中国强震记录汇报,2008,12(1):1-90.
[29]中国地震局《中国岩石圈动力学图集》编委会.中国岩石圈动力学图集[M].北京:中国地图出版社,1989.
[30]陈永明,石玉成,王旭东.天水麦积山石窟地震构造环境评价[J].敦煌研究,2005,5:78-82.
[31]潘建雄,吴业彪,张玉油,等.关于1556年华县大地震及岳阳地震的讨论[J].地震地质,1993,15(3):261-263.
[32]冉洪流.海原断裂带M≥6.7地震概率及其震级分布[J].地震学报,2004,26(6):609-615.
[33]袁丽侠.海原大地震极震区内烈度衰减异常探讨[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2004,24(2):441-445.
[34]中华人民共和国国家标准(GB18306-2001):中国地震动参数区划图及说明书[S].北京:中国计划出版社,2001.
[35]石玉成,王兰民,张颖.黄土场地覆盖层厚度和地形条件对地震动放大效应的影响[J].西北地震学报,1999,12(2):203-208.
[36]吴玮江,王念秦.黄土滑坡的基本类型与活动特征[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,13(2):36-40.
[37]徐张建,林在贯,张茂省.中国黄土与黄土滑坡[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(7):1297-1312.
[38]姚清林.中国西北黄土地区地震崩滑的分布与宏观影响因素[J].气象与减灾研究,2007,30(1):41-47.
[39]王兰民.黄土动力学[M].北京:地震出版社,2003:1-331.
[40]李保雄,王得楷.黄土滑坡空间预报的一种新理论[J].甘肃科学学报,1998,10(4):57-58.
[41]董书宁,李保雄.黄土滑坡的空间预报[J].煤田地质与勘探,2000,28(6):46-47.
[42]王念秦,张倬元,王家鼎.一种典型黄土滑坡的滑距预测方法[J].西北大学学报(自然科学版),2003,33(1):111-114.
[43]李典庆,吴帅兵.考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理[J].岩土力学,2006,27(12):2239-2249.
[2]Fell R,Ho K K S,Lacasse S,et al.A framework for landslide risk as sessment and management[C]//The International Conference on Land-slide Risk Management.Vancouver,Canada:A.A.Balkema Publish-ers,2005:3-26.
[3]AGS.Guideline for landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk zoning for land use management.Australian geomechanics society landslide task-force landslide zoning working group[J].Australian Geomechanics,2007,42(1):13-36.
[4]AGS.Commentary on guideline for landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk zoning for land use management.Australian geomechanics society landslide taskforce landslide zoning working group[J].Australian Geomechanics,2007,42(1):37-62.
[5]AGS.Commentary on guideline for landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk zoning for land use management.Australian geomechanics society landslide taskforce landslide zoning working group[J].Australian Geomechanics,2007,42(1):63-114.
[6]AGS.Commentary on guideline for landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk zoning for land use management.Australian geomechanics society landslide taskforce landslide zoning working group[J].Australian Geomechanics,2007,42(1):115-158.
[7]吴树仁,石菊松,王涛.突发地质灾害预测评价[J].地质通报,2008,27(11):1753-1763.
[8]Robin Fell,Jordi Corominas,Christophe Bonnard,et al.Guidelines for landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk zoning for land-use plan-ning[J].Engineering Geology,2008,102:85-98.
[9]Robin Fell,Jordi Corominas,Christophe Bonnard,et al.Guidelines for landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk zoning for land-use plan-ning[J].Engineering Geology,2008,102:99-111.
[10]Dai F C,Lee C F,Ngai Y Y.Landslide risk assessment and man-agement:an overview[J].Engineering Geology,2002,64(1):65-87.
[11]Van Westen C J,Van Asch T W J,Socters R.Landslide hazard and risk zonation—Why is it still so difficult?[J].Bull.Eng.Geol.Env.,2005,64:5-23.
[12]Jordi Corominas,JoséMoya.A review of assessing landslide frequen-cy for hazard zoning purposes[J].Engineering Geology,2008,102:193-213.
[13]Wong H N.Landslide risk assessment for individual facilities[C]//The International Conference on Landslide Risk Management.Vancouver,Canada:A.A.Balkema Publishers,2005:237-296.
[14]Kaynia A M,Papathoma-K觟hle M,Neuh覿user B,et al.Proba-bilistic assessment of vulnerability to landslide:Application to the village of Lichtenstein,Baden-Württemberg,Germany[J].Engineer-ing Geology,2008,101:33-48.
[15]张梁,张业成,罗元华,等.地质灾害灾情评价理论与实践[M].北京:地质出版社,1998.
[16]张春山,吴满路,张业成.地质灾害风险评价方法及展望[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,12(1):96-102.
[17]成永刚.近二十年来国内滑坡研究的现状及动态[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2003,14(4):1.
[18]石菊松,石玲,吴树仁.滑坡风险评估的难点和进展[J].地质论评,2007,53(6):797-806.
[19]Fell R,Ho K K S,Lacasse S,et al.Estimating landslides motion mechanism,travel distance and velocity[C]//Hungr O,Fell R,Coun-ture R,et al.Landslide Risk Management.Vancouver,Canada:A.A.Balkema Publishers,2005:99-128.
[20]Leroi E,Bonnard Ch,Fell R,et al.Risk assessment and management[C]//Hungr O,Fell R,Counture R,et al.Landslide Risk Manage-ment.Vancouver,Canada:A.A.Balkema Publishers,2005:159-198.
[21]Leroi E,Bonnard Ch,Corominas J,et al.Landslide hazard and risk zoning for urban planning and development[C]//Hungr O,Fell R,Counture R,et al.Landslide Risk Management.Vancouver,Cana-da:A.A.Balkema Publishers,2005:199-236.
[22]Wilson R A,Moon A T,Hendrickx M,et al.Application of quanti-tative risk assessment to the Lawrence Hargrave Drive Project,New South Wales,Australia[C]//Hungr O,Fell R,Counture R,et al.Landslide Risk Management.Vancouver,Canada:A.A.Balkema Publishers,2005:589-588.
[23]Thomas Nix,Oswald Marinoni.Quantitative landslide risk analysis and risk evaluation for publicly accessible geosites[M].IAEG,2006.
[24]沈娜.唐川金沙江水电站工程区典型单体滑坡风险评价探讨[J].云南地理环境研究,2008,20(1):45-51.
[25]唐亚明,张茂省,薛强.陕西延安虎头峁滑坡社会风险评价[J].地质通报,2008,27(11):1780-1786.
[26]Francesca Ardizzone,Mauro Cardinali,Fausto Guzzetti,et al.Landslide hazard assessment,vulnerability,estimation,and risk evaluation at the basin scale[C]//The First World Landslide Forum,Parallel Session Volume.2008:71-74.
[27]Marco Uzielli,Farrokh Nadim,Suzanne Lacasse,et al.A concep-tual framework for quantitative estimation of physical vulnerability to landslides[J].Engineering Geology,2008,102:251-256.
[28]中国地震局震害防治司.汶川8级地震未校正加速度记录[J].中国强震记录汇报,2008,12(1):1-90.
[29]中国地震局《中国岩石圈动力学图集》编委会.中国岩石圈动力学图集[M].北京:中国地图出版社,1989.
[30]陈永明,石玉成,王旭东.天水麦积山石窟地震构造环境评价[J].敦煌研究,2005,5:78-82.
[31]潘建雄,吴业彪,张玉油,等.关于1556年华县大地震及岳阳地震的讨论[J].地震地质,1993,15(3):261-263.
[32]冉洪流.海原断裂带M≥6.7地震概率及其震级分布[J].地震学报,2004,26(6):609-615.
[33]袁丽侠.海原大地震极震区内烈度衰减异常探讨[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2004,24(2):441-445.
[34]中华人民共和国国家标准(GB18306-2001):中国地震动参数区划图及说明书[S].北京:中国计划出版社,2001.
[35]石玉成,王兰民,张颖.黄土场地覆盖层厚度和地形条件对地震动放大效应的影响[J].西北地震学报,1999,12(2):203-208.
[36]吴玮江,王念秦.黄土滑坡的基本类型与活动特征[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,13(2):36-40.
[37]徐张建,林在贯,张茂省.中国黄土与黄土滑坡[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(7):1297-1312.
[38]姚清林.中国西北黄土地区地震崩滑的分布与宏观影响因素[J].气象与减灾研究,2007,30(1):41-47.
[39]王兰民.黄土动力学[M].北京:地震出版社,2003:1-331.
[40]李保雄,王得楷.黄土滑坡空间预报的一种新理论[J].甘肃科学学报,1998,10(4):57-58.
[41]董书宁,李保雄.黄土滑坡的空间预报[J].煤田地质与勘探,2000,28(6):46-47.
[42]王念秦,张倬元,王家鼎.一种典型黄土滑坡的滑距预测方法[J].西北大学学报(自然科学版),2003,33(1):111-114.
[43]李典庆,吴帅兵.考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理[J].岩土力学,2006,27(12):2239-2249.
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