随机AMR模型的参数估计及其在几次强震中的应用
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摘要
通过模拟强震前累积应变能释放具有加速特征地震目录的方法 ,系统地研究了随机AMR模型参数估计特征 .在此基础上 ,应用AIC(Akaike′sinformationcriteria)准则 ,分别对中国和新西兰几次强震加速情况进行了考察 ,分析强震前地震活动类型 ,有无加速 ,及何种因素引起的加速 ,同时探讨加速活动的区域分布特征和预测未来强震发生时间的可能途径 .
Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaike′s AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.
Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaike′s AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.
引文
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《数学手册》编写组.1979.数学手册[M ].北京:高等教育出版社,590～591
王丽凤,马丽,李勇,等.2002.试用累积求和方法研究地震活动平静现象及大震概率预报[J].地球物理学报,45(5):672～683
徐成贤,陈志平,李乃成.2002.近代优化方法[M ].北京:科学出版社,90～102
张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰.2001.地震预报引论[M ].北京:科学出版社,27～28
BowmanDD ,OuillonG ,SammisCG ,etal.1998.Anobservationaltestofthecriticalearthquakeconcept[J].JGeophysRes,103:24359～24372
BrehmDJ ,BraileLW .1998.Intermediate termearthquakepredictionusingprecursoryeventsintheNewMadridseismiczone[J].BullSeisSocAmer,88:564～580
BufeCG ,VarnesDJ .1993.PredictivemodelingoftheseismiccycleinthegreaterSanFranciscoBayRegionzone[J].JGeo physRes,98:9871～9983
BufeCG ,NishenkoSP ,VarnesDJ.1994.SeismicitytrendsandpotentialforlargeearthquakesintheAlaskaAleutianregion[J].PureApplGeophys,142:83～99
HarteD .1999.DocumentationfortheStatisticalSeismologyLibrary[M ].NewZealand:VictoriaUniversity,98～100
JaumeSC ,SykesLR .1999.Evolvingtowardsacriticalpoint:areviewofacceleratingseismicmoment/energyreleasepriortolargeandgreatearthquakes[J].PureApplGeophys,155:279～360
LynnrS ,StevenCJ.1990.Seismicactivityonneighboringfaultsasalong termprecursortolargeearthquakesintheSanFran ciscoBayArea[J].Nature,348:595～599
MogiK .1969.SomefeaturesofrecentseismicactivityinandnearJapan(2).Activitybeforeandaftergreatearthquakes[J].BullEarthqResInst,TokyoUniv,47:395～417
OgataY .1998.QuiescencerelativetotheETASmodel,toappearinZisin[J].JSeismolSocJapan,2:1035～1045
OgataY .1989.StatisticalmodelforstandardseismicityanddetectionofanomaliesbyresidualAnalysis[J].Tectophysics,169:159～174
RobinsonR .2000.AtestoftheprecursoryacceleratingmomentreleasemodelonsomerecentNewZealandearthquakes[J].GeophysJInt,140:568～576
SaleurH ,SammisCG ,SornetteD .1996.Discretescaleinvariance,complexfractaldimensionsandlog periodicfluctuationsinseismicity[J].JGeophysRes,101:17661～17677
SchnabelRB ,KoontzJE ,WeissBE .1985.Amodularsystemofalgorithmsforunconstrainedminimization[J].ACMTransMathSoftware,11:419～440
ShibataR .1976.SelectionoftheorderofanAutoregressiveModelbyAkaike’sInformationCriterion[J].Biometrica,63:1117～126
SornetteD ,SammisCG .1995.Complexcriticalexponentfromrenormalizationgrouptheoryofearthquakes:implicationsforearthquakeprediction[J].GeophysJInt,5:607～619
VarnesDJ .1989.Predictingearthquakesbyanalyzingacceleratingprecursoryseismicactivity[J].PureApplGrophys,130:661～686
VereJonesD ,RobinsonR ,YangWZ .2001.Remarksontheacceleratedmomentreleasemodel:predictionofmodelformula tion,simulationandestimation[J].GoephysJInt,144:517～531
YangW ,VereJonesD ,MaL .2001.Aproposedmethodforlocatingthecriticalregionofafutureearthquakeusingthecriticalearthquakeconcept[J].JGeophysRes,106:4121～4128
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