基于马尔科夫链模型的岱海地区气候变化周期研究
|
摘要
岱海湖相沉积物很好记录了近万年来区域气候变化的相关信息。利用马尔科夫链模型对岱海孢粉组合反映的气温和降水数据进行的周期性分析表明:该地区气候变化存在大约60 a8、0 a、180 a、400 a9、00 a等周期;周期变化与利用深水区沉积物、孢粉等研究结论以及相关地区的气候变化周期相一致,证明了马尔科夫链模型是研究环境变化周期性可利用的方法之一;在短时间尺度上,岱海地区气候变化与太阳活动和火山地震活动的周期存在相关性,太阳活动是该地区气候变化的主要驱动力之一,火山地震等因素对气候变化有一定的影响。
Daihai is an enclosed inland basin,which is located in the southern edge of Inner Mongolia Plateau.The lacustrine sediments in the basin has better recorded the regional climate change information in recent about 10 ka.The periodicity analysis on the data of air temperature and precipitation obtained from the pollen assemblage analysis by means of Markov Chain Model shows that the climate change has some relatively stable periods such as 60 a,80 a,180 a,400 a and 900 a,and so on.The periodicity is consistent with other research results by means of sediment in deeper water area and pollen analysis,also is consistent with the research results in other relative regions,which shows Markov Chain Model is one of available methods to study the periodicity of environmental change.In short time scale,there are relativities between Daihai regional climate change and solar activities,and volcanic earthquake activities,from which it is known that the solar activities is one of main driving forces to cause climate change,earthquakes and volcano eruptions also impact on the periodicity of climate change to a certain extent.
Daihai is an enclosed inland basin,which is located in the southern edge of Inner Mongolia Plateau.The lacustrine sediments in the basin has better recorded the regional climate change information in recent about 10 ka.The periodicity analysis on the data of air temperature and precipitation obtained from the pollen assemblage analysis by means of Markov Chain Model shows that the climate change has some relatively stable periods such as 60 a,80 a,180 a,400 a and 900 a,and so on.The periodicity is consistent with other research results by means of sediment in deeper water area and pollen analysis,also is consistent with the research results in other relative regions,which shows Markov Chain Model is one of available methods to study the periodicity of environmental change.In short time scale,there are relativities between Daihai regional climate change and solar activities,and volcanic earthquake activities,from which it is known that the solar activities is one of main driving forces to cause climate change,earthquakes and volcano eruptions also impact on the periodicity of climate change to a certain extent.
引文
[1]许清海,肖举乐,中村俊夫,等.孢粉资料定量重建全新世以来岱海盆地的古气候[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2003,23(4):99-108.
[2]钱家忠,朱学愚,吴剑锋.地下水资源评价中降水量的时间序列马尔科夫模型[J].地理科学,2001,21(4):350-353.
[3]郭笃发.利用马尔科夫过程预测黄河三角洲新生湿地土地利用/覆被格局的变化[J].土壤,2006,38(1):42-47.
[4]李凤娟,刘吉平.近百年长春市旱涝的马尔科夫链分析[J].吉林农业大学学报,2005,27(6):594-598.
[5]王梓坤.随机过程论[M].北京:科学出版社,1978.
[6]袁荫棠.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1989.
[7]曹建廷,王苏民,沈吉,等.近千年来内蒙古岱海气候环境演变的湖泊沉积记录[J].地理科学,2000,20(5):391-396.
[8]许清海,肖举乐,中村俊夫,等.孢粉记录的岱海盆地1500年以来气候变化[J].第四纪研究,2004,24(3):341-347.
[9]鲜锋,周卫健,余华贵.全新世气候系统的突变及周期性[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2006,26(5):109-115.
[10]徐国昌.中国干旱半干旱区气候变化[M].北京:中国气象出版社,1997.
[11]张兰生,方修琦,任国玉.全球变化[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999.
[12]STUI VER M,BRAZI UNAS T F.At mospheric 14Cand centu-ry-scale solar oscillations[J].Nature,1989,338:405-408.
[13]HONG Y T,JI ANG HB,LI U T S,et al.Response of cli mateto solar forcing recorded in a 6000-yearδ18O ti me series ofChinese peat cellulose[J].The Holocene,2000,10(1):1-7.
[14]郭增建.海洋中和海洋边缘的巨震是调节气候的恒温器之一[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(3):287.
[2]钱家忠,朱学愚,吴剑锋.地下水资源评价中降水量的时间序列马尔科夫模型[J].地理科学,2001,21(4):350-353.
[3]郭笃发.利用马尔科夫过程预测黄河三角洲新生湿地土地利用/覆被格局的变化[J].土壤,2006,38(1):42-47.
[4]李凤娟,刘吉平.近百年长春市旱涝的马尔科夫链分析[J].吉林农业大学学报,2005,27(6):594-598.
[5]王梓坤.随机过程论[M].北京:科学出版社,1978.
[6]袁荫棠.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1989.
[7]曹建廷,王苏民,沈吉,等.近千年来内蒙古岱海气候环境演变的湖泊沉积记录[J].地理科学,2000,20(5):391-396.
[8]许清海,肖举乐,中村俊夫,等.孢粉记录的岱海盆地1500年以来气候变化[J].第四纪研究,2004,24(3):341-347.
[9]鲜锋,周卫健,余华贵.全新世气候系统的突变及周期性[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2006,26(5):109-115.
[10]徐国昌.中国干旱半干旱区气候变化[M].北京:中国气象出版社,1997.
[11]张兰生,方修琦,任国玉.全球变化[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999.
[12]STUI VER M,BRAZI UNAS T F.At mospheric 14Cand centu-ry-scale solar oscillations[J].Nature,1989,338:405-408.
[13]HONG Y T,JI ANG HB,LI U T S,et al.Response of cli mateto solar forcing recorded in a 6000-yearδ18O ti me series ofChinese peat cellulose[J].The Holocene,2000,10(1):1-7.
[14]郭增建.海洋中和海洋边缘的巨震是调节气候的恒温器之一[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(3):287.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心