半年度地震趋势数值预测
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摘要
采用"自激励门限自回归模型"(SETAR)对山西、河北平原带及郯庐带1970年以来半年度最高震级序列进行了分析计算,给出了1998年以来山西、河北平原带及郯庐带半年度最高预测震级。结果表明,该模型对半年度地震趋势预测具有良好的预测效果,这种建模方法有效,模型可信。
The highest half-yearly magnitude series of the Shanxi seismic belt, the Pingyuan seismic belt in Hebei Province and the Tanlu seismic belt since 1970 have been analyzed and calculated by use of self-exciting threshold autoregressive model (SETAR). The highest predicted magnitudes of the Shanxi seismic belt, the Pingyuan seismic belt in Hebei Province and Tanlu seismic belt since 1998 are presented. The result indicates that the model has good prediction effect on half-yearly earthquake tendency and that the modeling method is effective and the model is reliable.
The highest half-yearly magnitude series of the Shanxi seismic belt, the Pingyuan seismic belt in Hebei Province and the Tanlu seismic belt since 1970 have been analyzed and calculated by use of self-exciting threshold autoregressive model (SETAR). The highest predicted magnitudes of the Shanxi seismic belt, the Pingyuan seismic belt in Hebei Province and Tanlu seismic belt since 1998 are presented. The result indicates that the model has good prediction effect on half-yearly earthquake tendency and that the modeling method is effective and the model is reliable.
引文
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黎令仪,刘德富.月际地震趋势的数值预测法[J].地震学报,2004,26(5) :529-532．
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刘德富.气候多雨与强震发生的延时关系[J].地球物理学报,1987,30(5) :488-491．
罗新恒,张哲,陈景华.ADAPT数字遥测地震台网中传递函数的辨识[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2003,24(3) :67-74．
赵仲和,罗新恒,周超.ADAPT区域数字地震台网数据汇集与处理软件包[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2003,24(2) :34-39．
黎令仪,刘德富.月际地震趋势的数值预测法[J].地震学报,2004,26(5) :529-532．
黎令仪,刘德富.震级序列的门限建模[J].地球物理学报,1985,28(3) :303-310．
刘德富.气候多雨与强震发生的延时关系[J].地球物理学报,1987,30(5) :488-491．
罗新恒,张哲,陈景华.ADAPT数字遥测地震台网中传递函数的辨识[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2003,24(3) :67-74．
赵仲和,罗新恒,周超.ADAPT区域数字地震台网数据汇集与处理软件包[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2003,24(2) :34-39．
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