区域地质灾害评价的有效性周期分析
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摘要
区域地质灾害评价有效性周期是指评价可靠性的持续时间,它的影响因素主要包括地质灾害背景条件的复杂性、研究区的范围或规模、突发性自然事件以及人类工程活动等。通过分析这些因素对区域地质灾害评价的有效性周期的影响模式,提出了确定区域地质灾害评价有效性周期的基本方法。通过对汶川地震前后的青川县滑坡危险性区划进行比较,对北京市2001年、2009年的地质灾害易发性评价结果进行比较,分析了确定区域地质灾害评价有效性周期的必要性,同时验证了确定有效性周期的方法的适宜性。
The present paper intends to make an analysis of the valid period of regional geological hazards by taking Wenchuan Earthquake and a comparative study of the susceptibility assessments results of Beijing in 2001 and 2009 as the case study samples.As is known,the primary regional geological hazards assessment should be made static by nature,however,the factors affecting the geological hazards are various and evolutionary,which may cause a scaling problem in time and make the assessment results totally invalid,and even may lead to unpredictable hazards.With human activity and interference getting more and more rampant and uncontrollable,there is an aggravating tendency to the problem of the unpredictable latent risks.Therefore,it is urgent for the geological and seismic scientists to study and find the valid period of such hazards and make available assessments.The so-called valid period of regional geological hazards assessment refers to the prediction of the periodical change and the likely-to-happen regional geological hazards.And for this purpose,it is essential to analyze the factors affecting the periodical evolution,change and likely-to-happen hazards,which mainly involve the background and conditions of geological seismic hazards,the scale or scope of the areas under study,the abrupt natural events and human activities concerned and so on.Such regional geological hazard assessment is mainly concerned with the internal behaviors of the time effect of regional geological activities,mainly caused by the spatial heterogeneity and time-elapsed nonlinear seismic events.This paper has thus proposed basic applications of the ways of determining the valid periods of regional geological hazard assessment by analyzing the modes and the factors impacting such period's assessment.And,finally,comparing the landslides hazard assessments of Qingchuan County before and after the Wenchuan Earthquake in 2009 and the comparison of the susceptibility assessment results of Beijing in 2001 and 2009,we have analyzed the necessity and significance of determining such hazards,and verified the appropriateness of the method to be applied to determining such sorts of hazards.
The present paper intends to make an analysis of the valid period of regional geological hazards by taking Wenchuan Earthquake and a comparative study of the susceptibility assessments results of Beijing in 2001 and 2009 as the case study samples.As is known,the primary regional geological hazards assessment should be made static by nature,however,the factors affecting the geological hazards are various and evolutionary,which may cause a scaling problem in time and make the assessment results totally invalid,and even may lead to unpredictable hazards.With human activity and interference getting more and more rampant and uncontrollable,there is an aggravating tendency to the problem of the unpredictable latent risks.Therefore,it is urgent for the geological and seismic scientists to study and find the valid period of such hazards and make available assessments.The so-called valid period of regional geological hazards assessment refers to the prediction of the periodical change and the likely-to-happen regional geological hazards.And for this purpose,it is essential to analyze the factors affecting the periodical evolution,change and likely-to-happen hazards,which mainly involve the background and conditions of geological seismic hazards,the scale or scope of the areas under study,the abrupt natural events and human activities concerned and so on.Such regional geological hazard assessment is mainly concerned with the internal behaviors of the time effect of regional geological activities,mainly caused by the spatial heterogeneity and time-elapsed nonlinear seismic events.This paper has thus proposed basic applications of the ways of determining the valid periods of regional geological hazard assessment by analyzing the modes and the factors impacting such period's assessment.And,finally,comparing the landslides hazard assessments of Qingchuan County before and after the Wenchuan Earthquake in 2009 and the comparison of the susceptibility assessment results of Beijing in 2001 and 2009,we have analyzed the necessity and significance of determining such hazards,and verified the appropriateness of the method to be applied to determining such sorts of hazards.
引文
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[9]XU Yueren(徐岳仁),HE Honglin(何宏林),SHEN Xuhui(申旭辉),et al.Study on dynamic survey of group geological disasters inDongjiang Reservoir Region,Zixing City,using CBERS Images[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis(北京大学学报:自然科学版),2011,47(4):689-697.
[10]LI Shuangcheng(李双成),CAI Yunlong(蔡运龙).Some scalingis-sue of geography[J].Geographical Research(地理研究),2005,24(1):11-18.
[11]CHENXiaoqing(陈晓清),CUI Peng(崔鹏),ZHAO Wanyu(赵万玉).Optimal timingfor the control of debrisflowin Wenchuan Earth-quake Area[J].Journal of Sichuan University:Engineering ScienceEdition(四川大学学报:工程科学版),2009,41(3):125-130.
[12]ZHANGFanyu(张帆宇),LIU Gao(刘高),CHEN Wenwu(谌文武),et al.Evolution mechanismof Yuanjiawan landslide in the pro-cess of slope cutting and excavation[J].Chinese Journal ofGeotechni-cal Engineering(岩土工程学报),2009,31(8):1248-1254.
[13]HUANG Runqiu(黄润秋).Large-scale landslides and their slidingmechanismsin China since the 20th century[J].Chinese Journal ofRock Mechanics and Engineering(岩石力学与工程学报),2007,26(3):433-454.
[14]HOANG Runqin,CHANLungsang.Human-inducedlandslidesin Chi-na:mechanismstudy and its implications on slope management[J].Chinese Journal ofRock Mechanics and Engineering(岩石力学与工程学报),2004,23(16):2766-2777.
[15]LUOPan(罗攀).Anthropogenic material flowandits effects on urbangeological environment[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium UniversitaticsSunyatseni(中山大学学报:自然科学版),2003,42(6):120-149.
[16]ZHANG Guirong(张桂荣),YIN Kunlong(殷坤龙).Study on thespatial prediction methodfor regional landslide andresults analysis[J].Chinese Journal ofRock Mechanics and Engineering(岩石力学与工程学报),2005,24(23):4297-4302.
[17]SHANXiaoyun(单晓云),JIANG Yaodong(姜耀东),WANG Lejie(王乐杰),et al.Finite element analysis of effect of underground coalmining onlandslide of the Wei Mountain[J].Journal of China CoalSociety(煤炭学报),2008,33(1):23-27.
[18]WEI Jinglian(韦京莲),DONG Guizhi(董桂芝).Hazards and coun-termeasures of geological hazardsin Beijing[J].Hydrogeology&Engi-neering Geology(水文地质工程地质),2001,28(3):31-34.
[19]ZHAOZhonghai(赵忠海).Riskassessment of the unexpected geologi-cal disaster in Beijing[J].Journal ofGeological Hazards and Environ-ment Preservation(地质灾害与环境保护),2009,20(3):39-44.
[2]NGECU WM,ICHANG’I D W.Environmental impact of landslides onthe population living on the eastern footslopes of the aberdare ranges inKenya:a case study of Maringa Village landslide[J].EnvironmentalGeology,1999,38(3):259-264.
[3]AUS WC.Rain-inducedslopeinstabilityin Hong Kong[J].Engineer-ing Geology,1998,51(1):1-36.
[4]HUANG Runqiu(黄润秋),XIANG Xiqiong(向喜琼),JU Nengpan(巨能攀).Assessment of China’s regional hazards:present situationand problems[J].Geological Bulletin ofChina(地质通报),2004,23(11):1078-1082.
[5]LU Guangyin(鲁光银),HAN Xuli(韩旭里),ZHUZiqiang(朱自强),et al.Synthetical evaluation and classification model of geo-logical hazards[J].Journal of Central South University:Science andTechnology(中南大学学报:自然科学版),2005,36(5):877-881.
[6]WUYue(吴越),LIUDongsheng(刘东升),LUXin(陆新),et al.Aquantitative vulnerability assessment model for typical element at land-slide risk based onthe work-energytransformation[J].Chinese JournalofRock Mechanics and Engineering(岩石力学与工程学报),2011,30(S1):2946-2952.
[7]PANMao(潘懋),LI Tiefeng(李铁锋).Studyofthe geological hazard(灾害地质学)[M].Beijing:Peking University Press,2002:93-111.
[8]HANJinliang(韩金良),WUShuren(吴树仁),WANG Huabin(汪华斌).Preliminary study on geological hazard chains[J].Earth ScienceFrontiers,2007,14(6):11-23.
[9]XU Yueren(徐岳仁),HE Honglin(何宏林),SHEN Xuhui(申旭辉),et al.Study on dynamic survey of group geological disasters inDongjiang Reservoir Region,Zixing City,using CBERS Images[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis(北京大学学报:自然科学版),2011,47(4):689-697.
[10]LI Shuangcheng(李双成),CAI Yunlong(蔡运龙).Some scalingis-sue of geography[J].Geographical Research(地理研究),2005,24(1):11-18.
[11]CHENXiaoqing(陈晓清),CUI Peng(崔鹏),ZHAO Wanyu(赵万玉).Optimal timingfor the control of debrisflowin Wenchuan Earth-quake Area[J].Journal of Sichuan University:Engineering ScienceEdition(四川大学学报:工程科学版),2009,41(3):125-130.
[12]ZHANGFanyu(张帆宇),LIU Gao(刘高),CHEN Wenwu(谌文武),et al.Evolution mechanismof Yuanjiawan landslide in the pro-cess of slope cutting and excavation[J].Chinese Journal ofGeotechni-cal Engineering(岩土工程学报),2009,31(8):1248-1254.
[13]HUANG Runqiu(黄润秋).Large-scale landslides and their slidingmechanismsin China since the 20th century[J].Chinese Journal ofRock Mechanics and Engineering(岩石力学与工程学报),2007,26(3):433-454.
[14]HOANG Runqin,CHANLungsang.Human-inducedlandslidesin Chi-na:mechanismstudy and its implications on slope management[J].Chinese Journal ofRock Mechanics and Engineering(岩石力学与工程学报),2004,23(16):2766-2777.
[15]LUOPan(罗攀).Anthropogenic material flowandits effects on urbangeological environment[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium UniversitaticsSunyatseni(中山大学学报:自然科学版),2003,42(6):120-149.
[16]ZHANG Guirong(张桂荣),YIN Kunlong(殷坤龙).Study on thespatial prediction methodfor regional landslide andresults analysis[J].Chinese Journal ofRock Mechanics and Engineering(岩石力学与工程学报),2005,24(23):4297-4302.
[17]SHANXiaoyun(单晓云),JIANG Yaodong(姜耀东),WANG Lejie(王乐杰),et al.Finite element analysis of effect of underground coalmining onlandslide of the Wei Mountain[J].Journal of China CoalSociety(煤炭学报),2008,33(1):23-27.
[18]WEI Jinglian(韦京莲),DONG Guizhi(董桂芝).Hazards and coun-termeasures of geological hazardsin Beijing[J].Hydrogeology&Engi-neering Geology(水文地质工程地质),2001,28(3):31-34.
[19]ZHAOZhonghai(赵忠海).Riskassessment of the unexpected geologi-cal disaster in Beijing[J].Journal ofGeological Hazards and Environ-ment Preservation(地质灾害与环境保护),2009,20(3):39-44.
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