新疆地区典型潜在震源区大震年发生率的估计
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摘要
利用活动断裂定量研究资料(滑动速率、古地震等),结合新疆地区的地震构造环境特征分析,研究了典型潜在震源区大震复发模式,建立了具有区域特征的混合模型,以此评定了新疆地区典型潜在震源区大震的年发生率。混合模型由截断G-R关系模型和特征地震模型构成,计算时先分别计算两个模型的大震分震级档年发生率,然后根据潜在震源区地震地质资料的完备性情况、可靠程度以及大震孕育的区域性特征为两个模型的分震级档结果赋予一定权重,最后求两个模型的加权和。大震复发间隔的计算中利用汶川地震与集集地震的最大垂直位错和平均垂直位错统计关系约束了逆冲型断裂的平均位错量,潜源区的大震年发生率的计算考虑了级联破裂问题。结果表明,本研究所得高震级档大震年发生率比第三代、第四代地震区划图小,文中对这一现象产生的原因进行了初步分析。
By using fault quantitative data (slip rate and paleoearthquake sequence et al.),accompanied by the analysis of regional seismotectonic background, we develop combined models in which the regional characteristics are considered. The annual rate of large earthquakes of typical Potential seismic Zone in Xinjiang region is estimated with our models. The Combined model consists of two recurrence models: Cut-Off G-R relationship model and characteristic earthquake model. In application the annual rates of sub-magnitudes are calculated respectively at first, then weight of each factor is assigned according to the completeness and reliability of quantitative data and regional characteristics of seismological background, Finally the weighted values are summed up. A relationship between maximum and average displacements is derived from Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake and Chi-Chi MW 7.6 earthquake respectively and used to constrain the average displacement of Manas 1906 earthquake. The result shows that the annual rate of large earthquake are smaller than that of China seismic zonation maps both of the third and the fourth generation. the reasons for this instance are analyzed in this paper.
By using fault quantitative data (slip rate and paleoearthquake sequence et al.),accompanied by the analysis of regional seismotectonic background, we develop combined models in which the regional characteristics are considered. The annual rate of large earthquakes of typical Potential seismic Zone in Xinjiang region is estimated with our models. The Combined model consists of two recurrence models: Cut-Off G-R relationship model and characteristic earthquake model. In application the annual rates of sub-magnitudes are calculated respectively at first, then weight of each factor is assigned according to the completeness and reliability of quantitative data and regional characteristics of seismological background, Finally the weighted values are summed up. A relationship between maximum and average displacements is derived from Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake and Chi-Chi MW 7.6 earthquake respectively and used to constrain the average displacement of Manas 1906 earthquake. The result shows that the annual rate of large earthquake are smaller than that of China seismic zonation maps both of the third and the fourth generation. the reasons for this instance are analyzed in this paper.
引文
丁国瑜,田勤俭,孔凡臣等,1993.活断层分段一原则、方法及应用.北京:地震出版社,143.
邓起东,冯先岳,杨晓平等,1994.利用大型探槽研究新疆北天山玛纳斯和吐谷鲁逆断裂-褶皱带全新世古地震.见:活动断裂研究——理论与应用.北京:地震出版社,3:1—17.
邓起东,冯先岳,张培震等,2000.天山活动构造.北京:地震出版社.
冯先岳,1997.新疆古地震.新疆:新疆科技卫生出版社,1—250.
高孟潭,2003.新的国家地震区划图.地震学报,25(6):630—636.
高孟潭,卢寿德,2006.关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨.震灾防御技术,1(1):1—6.
毛凤英,张培震,1995.古地震研究中的逐次限定方法与新疆北部主要断裂带的古地震研究.见:活动断裂研究——理论与应用.北京:地震出版社,4:153—164.
冉洪流,2009.潜在震源区震级上限不确定性研究.地震学报,31(4):396—402.
冉洪流,周本刚,2004.布朗模型在北京西北地区的应用.地震学报,26(增刊):96—102.
冉勇康,陈立春,杨晓平等,2003.鄂尔多斯地块北缘主要活动断裂晚第四纪强震复发特征,中国科学(D辑),33(B04):135—143.
任俊杰,张世民,冉洪流,2008.活断层定量资料在大震年发生率评定中的应用.震灾防御技术,3(3):282—291.
任俊杰,陈虹,2004.东昆仑断裂带地震复发周期及发震概率研究.大地测量与地球动力学,24(3):51—56.
徐锡伟,闻学泽,叶建青等,2008.汶川Ms8.0地震地表破裂带及其发震构造.地震地质,30(3):597—629.
沈军,李莹甄,汪一鹏,2004.地震构造的能量积累和释放特征与新疆天山部分地区地震危险性分析.中国地震,20(3):229—237.
杨晓平,邓起东,张培震等,1995.利用阶地变形资料研究北天山吐谷鲁逆断裂-背斜带晚更新世以来的褶皱变形特征.见:活动断裂研究——理论与应用.北京:地震出版社,4:46—62.
松浦一树,江娃利,2001.台湾9.21集集地震地表地震断层.地壳构造与地壳应力,1期:20—31.
王彦斌,李建成,2000.1999年台湾集集大地震的地表断层破裂特征.地震地质,22(2):97—103.
闻学泽,1995.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估.北京:地震出版社,1—150.
张培震,闵伟,邓起东,毛凤英,2003.海原活动断裂带的古地震与强震复发规律.中国科学(D辑),33(8):705—713.
张培震,邓起东,徐锡伟等,1994.盲断裂,褶皱地震,与1906年玛纳斯地震.地震地质,16(3):193—204.
张培震,邓起东,徐锡伟等,1994.天山北麓玛纳斯活动逆断裂-褶皱带的变形特征与构造演化.见:活动断裂研究——理论与应用.北京:地震出版社,3:18—32.
张永庆,谢富仁,2007.活动断裂地震危险性的研究现状和展望.震灾防御技术,2(1):64—74.
周本刚,沈得秀,2006.地震安全性评价中若干地震地质问题探讨.震灾防御技术,1(2):113—120.
Ellsworth W.L.,1999.A physically based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities.US Geol Surv Open-File Rept,99—552.
Frankel A.,Petersen M.,Mueller C.et al.,2002.Documentation for the2002Update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps.Open-file Report02-420,Washington DC:U.S.Geological Survey,2—31.
Matthews M.V.,Ellsworth W.L.,Reasenberg P.A.,2002.A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,92:2233—2250.
National Seismic Hazard Maps.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report2008—1128.
Petersen M.D.,Bryant W.A.,Cramer C.H.et al.,1996.Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the State of California.California Division of Mines and Geology Open-File Report96-08,USGS Open File Report96—706.
Petersen M.D.,Frankel A.D.,Harmsen S.C.et al.,2008.Documentation for the2008Update of the United States.
Reid H.F.,1910.The mechanics of the earthquake,v.2of The California earthquake of April18,1906.Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission:Carnegie Institution of Washington Publication87.
Schwartz D.P.,Coppersmith K.J.,1984.Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes:Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas faults.Journal of Geophysical Research,89(5):873—890.
Shimazaki K.and Nakata T.,1980.Time-predictable recurrence of large earthquake.Geophys.Res.Lett.,7:279—282.
Wallace R.E.et al.,1984.Terms for expressing earthquake patential prediction and probability.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,74:1819—1825.
Weldon R.,Fumal T.,Biasi G.et al.,2005.Past and future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault.Science,308966—967.
Wells D.L.and Coppersmith K.J.,1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement.Seismological Society of America Bulletin,84(4):974—1002.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities(WGCEP),2008.The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast.Version2(UCERF2):U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report2007-1437and California Geological Survey Special Report203.
邓起东,冯先岳,杨晓平等,1994.利用大型探槽研究新疆北天山玛纳斯和吐谷鲁逆断裂-褶皱带全新世古地震.见:活动断裂研究——理论与应用.北京:地震出版社,3:1—17.
邓起东,冯先岳,张培震等,2000.天山活动构造.北京:地震出版社.
冯先岳,1997.新疆古地震.新疆:新疆科技卫生出版社,1—250.
高孟潭,2003.新的国家地震区划图.地震学报,25(6):630—636.
高孟潭,卢寿德,2006.关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨.震灾防御技术,1(1):1—6.
毛凤英,张培震,1995.古地震研究中的逐次限定方法与新疆北部主要断裂带的古地震研究.见:活动断裂研究——理论与应用.北京:地震出版社,4:153—164.
冉洪流,2009.潜在震源区震级上限不确定性研究.地震学报,31(4):396—402.
冉洪流,周本刚,2004.布朗模型在北京西北地区的应用.地震学报,26(增刊):96—102.
冉勇康,陈立春,杨晓平等,2003.鄂尔多斯地块北缘主要活动断裂晚第四纪强震复发特征,中国科学(D辑),33(B04):135—143.
任俊杰,张世民,冉洪流,2008.活断层定量资料在大震年发生率评定中的应用.震灾防御技术,3(3):282—291.
任俊杰,陈虹,2004.东昆仑断裂带地震复发周期及发震概率研究.大地测量与地球动力学,24(3):51—56.
徐锡伟,闻学泽,叶建青等,2008.汶川Ms8.0地震地表破裂带及其发震构造.地震地质,30(3):597—629.
沈军,李莹甄,汪一鹏,2004.地震构造的能量积累和释放特征与新疆天山部分地区地震危险性分析.中国地震,20(3):229—237.
杨晓平,邓起东,张培震等,1995.利用阶地变形资料研究北天山吐谷鲁逆断裂-背斜带晚更新世以来的褶皱变形特征.见:活动断裂研究——理论与应用.北京:地震出版社,4:46—62.
松浦一树,江娃利,2001.台湾9.21集集地震地表地震断层.地壳构造与地壳应力,1期:20—31.
王彦斌,李建成,2000.1999年台湾集集大地震的地表断层破裂特征.地震地质,22(2):97—103.
闻学泽,1995.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估.北京:地震出版社,1—150.
张培震,闵伟,邓起东,毛凤英,2003.海原活动断裂带的古地震与强震复发规律.中国科学(D辑),33(8):705—713.
张培震,邓起东,徐锡伟等,1994.盲断裂,褶皱地震,与1906年玛纳斯地震.地震地质,16(3):193—204.
张培震,邓起东,徐锡伟等,1994.天山北麓玛纳斯活动逆断裂-褶皱带的变形特征与构造演化.见:活动断裂研究——理论与应用.北京:地震出版社,3:18—32.
张永庆,谢富仁,2007.活动断裂地震危险性的研究现状和展望.震灾防御技术,2(1):64—74.
周本刚,沈得秀,2006.地震安全性评价中若干地震地质问题探讨.震灾防御技术,1(2):113—120.
Ellsworth W.L.,1999.A physically based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities.US Geol Surv Open-File Rept,99—552.
Frankel A.,Petersen M.,Mueller C.et al.,2002.Documentation for the2002Update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps.Open-file Report02-420,Washington DC:U.S.Geological Survey,2—31.
Matthews M.V.,Ellsworth W.L.,Reasenberg P.A.,2002.A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,92:2233—2250.
National Seismic Hazard Maps.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report2008—1128.
Petersen M.D.,Bryant W.A.,Cramer C.H.et al.,1996.Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the State of California.California Division of Mines and Geology Open-File Report96-08,USGS Open File Report96—706.
Petersen M.D.,Frankel A.D.,Harmsen S.C.et al.,2008.Documentation for the2008Update of the United States.
Reid H.F.,1910.The mechanics of the earthquake,v.2of The California earthquake of April18,1906.Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission:Carnegie Institution of Washington Publication87.
Schwartz D.P.,Coppersmith K.J.,1984.Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes:Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas faults.Journal of Geophysical Research,89(5):873—890.
Shimazaki K.and Nakata T.,1980.Time-predictable recurrence of large earthquake.Geophys.Res.Lett.,7:279—282.
Wallace R.E.et al.,1984.Terms for expressing earthquake patential prediction and probability.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,74:1819—1825.
Weldon R.,Fumal T.,Biasi G.et al.,2005.Past and future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault.Science,308966—967.
Wells D.L.and Coppersmith K.J.,1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement.Seismological Society of America Bulletin,84(4):974—1002.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities(WGCEP),2008.The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast.Version2(UCERF2):U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report2007-1437and California Geological Survey Special Report203.
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