泥石流灾害综合风险分析方法及其应用
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摘要
将挽救个人生命、保障生命安全、避免灾害造成的生命损失而必须投入的成本作为生命风险价值的体现,将用于修复灾害破坏的生态环境而必须投入的成本作为生态环境的风险价值,基于这种新的风险理念和风险价值观,以泥石流灾害为例,提出了综合风险评估的组合模型。模型输入变量涉及泥石流灾害特征、人类经济社会属性、自然生态环境条件共14个指标,模型输出结果为货币化表达的生命风险价值、经济风险价值、生态环境风险价值及综合风险价值4个数值。以汶川地震区都江堰市八一沟泥石流灾害为例,对评估模型进行了初步检验。
Risks may be classified as individual risks and integrated risk.Individual risks include the risk of life,the economic risk and ecological environment risk.Integrated risk is the sum of the three risks.Risks may also be classified as relative risk and absolute risk.The relative risk is commonly expressed as a value between 0 and 1.The absolute risk is required to represent the monetized value.The monetized risk is the needs of social development and disaster prevention and mitigation,and also the cutting-edge research in disaster science.To save individual lives,to protect the lives and safety,and to avoid the loss of life caused by disasters is put the cost as a manifestation of the value of life risk;the investment to repair the damaged ecological environment by disaster is as the cost of the risk value of the ecological environment.Based on this new risk philosophy and risk values,taking debris flows for example,a combination of integrated risk assessment model is presented in this article.The model input variables relate to the three aspects of the characteristics of debris flows,human economic and social attributes,and the natural environment conditions,a total of 14 indicators.The model output results are the monetized life risk value,economic risk value,and ecological environment value at risk,as well as the integrated risk value.For example of debris flow disaster in Bayi gully of Dujiangyan,the initial validation and practical application of the assessment method are carried out.The practicality and reliability of the assessment model has yet to be more practical in the future to further inspection.
Risks may be classified as individual risks and integrated risk.Individual risks include the risk of life,the economic risk and ecological environment risk.Integrated risk is the sum of the three risks.Risks may also be classified as relative risk and absolute risk.The relative risk is commonly expressed as a value between 0 and 1.The absolute risk is required to represent the monetized value.The monetized risk is the needs of social development and disaster prevention and mitigation,and also the cutting-edge research in disaster science.To save individual lives,to protect the lives and safety,and to avoid the loss of life caused by disasters is put the cost as a manifestation of the value of life risk;the investment to repair the damaged ecological environment by disaster is as the cost of the risk value of the ecological environment.Based on this new risk philosophy and risk values,taking debris flows for example,a combination of integrated risk assessment model is presented in this article.The model input variables relate to the three aspects of the characteristics of debris flows,human economic and social attributes,and the natural environment conditions,a total of 14 indicators.The model output results are the monetized life risk value,economic risk value,and ecological environment value at risk,as well as the integrated risk value.For example of debris flow disaster in Bayi gully of Dujiangyan,the initial validation and practical application of the assessment method are carried out.The practicality and reliability of the assessment model has yet to be more practical in the future to further inspection.
引文
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[2]殷杰,尹占娥,王军,等.基于GIS的城市社区暴雨内涝灾害风险评估[J].地理与地理信息科学,2009,25(6):92-95.
[3]刘希林,莫多闻.泥石流风险评价[M].成都:四川科学技术出版社,2003.
[4]JONKMAN S N,VAN GELDER P H A J M,VRIJLING J K.An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and e-conomic damage[J].Hazardous Materials,2003,99(1):1-30.
[5]刘希林,莫多闻.泥石流风险及沟谷泥石流风险度评价[J].工程地质学报,2002,10(3):266-273.
[6]谢高地,甄霖,鲁春霞,等.一个基于专家知识的生态系统服务价值化方法[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(5):911-919.
[7]谢高地,甄霖,鲁春霞,等.生态系统服务的供给、消费和价值化[J].资源科学,2008,30(1):93-99.
[8]INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER REDUC-TION.2009UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction[EB/OL].http://www.unisdr.org/publications.2009-06-01.
[9]尚志海,刘希林.泥石流灾害生命损失风险评价初步研究[J].安全与环境学报,2010,10(4):184-188.
[10]尚志海,刘希林.基于LQI的泥石流灾害生命风险价值评估[J].热带地理,2010,30(3):289-293.
[11]尚志海,刘希林.自然灾害生态环境风险及其评价——以汶川地震极重灾区次生泥石流灾害为例[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(9):3-8.
[12]尚志海,刘希林.泥石流灾害生态环境风险损失评价方法探讨[A].中国视角的风险分析和危机反应[C].巴黎:亚特兰蒂斯出版社,2010.180-185.
[13]尚志海.泥石流灾害综合风险货币化评估及可接受风险[D].中山大学,2012.
[14]刘希林.沟谷泥石流危险性计算公式的由来及其应用实例[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2010,30(3):241-245.
[15]刘希林,唐川.泥石流危险性评价[M].北京:科学出版社,1995.
[16]LIU X L.Assessment on the severity of debris flows in moun-tainous creeks of southwest China[A].Proceedings of Interna-tional Symposium-Interpraevent[C].Garmisch-Partenkirech-en,Germany,1996,4:145-154.
[17]刘希林,莫多闻.泥石流易损度评价[J].地理研究,2002,21(5):569-577.
[18]张自光,张志明,张顺斌.都江堰市八一沟泥石流形成条件与动力学特征分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2010,21(1):34-38.
[19]马煜,余斌,吴雨夫,等.四川都江堰龙池“8.13”八一沟大型泥石流灾害研究[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2011,43(增刊1):92-98.
[20]RACKWITZ R.Optimization and risk acceptability based onthe life quality index[J].Structural Safety,2002,24(2-4):297-331.
[2]殷杰,尹占娥,王军,等.基于GIS的城市社区暴雨内涝灾害风险评估[J].地理与地理信息科学,2009,25(6):92-95.
[3]刘希林,莫多闻.泥石流风险评价[M].成都:四川科学技术出版社,2003.
[4]JONKMAN S N,VAN GELDER P H A J M,VRIJLING J K.An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and e-conomic damage[J].Hazardous Materials,2003,99(1):1-30.
[5]刘希林,莫多闻.泥石流风险及沟谷泥石流风险度评价[J].工程地质学报,2002,10(3):266-273.
[6]谢高地,甄霖,鲁春霞,等.一个基于专家知识的生态系统服务价值化方法[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(5):911-919.
[7]谢高地,甄霖,鲁春霞,等.生态系统服务的供给、消费和价值化[J].资源科学,2008,30(1):93-99.
[8]INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER REDUC-TION.2009UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction[EB/OL].http://www.unisdr.org/publications.2009-06-01.
[9]尚志海,刘希林.泥石流灾害生命损失风险评价初步研究[J].安全与环境学报,2010,10(4):184-188.
[10]尚志海,刘希林.基于LQI的泥石流灾害生命风险价值评估[J].热带地理,2010,30(3):289-293.
[11]尚志海,刘希林.自然灾害生态环境风险及其评价——以汶川地震极重灾区次生泥石流灾害为例[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(9):3-8.
[12]尚志海,刘希林.泥石流灾害生态环境风险损失评价方法探讨[A].中国视角的风险分析和危机反应[C].巴黎:亚特兰蒂斯出版社,2010.180-185.
[13]尚志海.泥石流灾害综合风险货币化评估及可接受风险[D].中山大学,2012.
[14]刘希林.沟谷泥石流危险性计算公式的由来及其应用实例[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2010,30(3):241-245.
[15]刘希林,唐川.泥石流危险性评价[M].北京:科学出版社,1995.
[16]LIU X L.Assessment on the severity of debris flows in moun-tainous creeks of southwest China[A].Proceedings of Interna-tional Symposium-Interpraevent[C].Garmisch-Partenkirech-en,Germany,1996,4:145-154.
[17]刘希林,莫多闻.泥石流易损度评价[J].地理研究,2002,21(5):569-577.
[18]张自光,张志明,张顺斌.都江堰市八一沟泥石流形成条件与动力学特征分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2010,21(1):34-38.
[19]马煜,余斌,吴雨夫,等.四川都江堰龙池“8.13”八一沟大型泥石流灾害研究[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2011,43(增刊1):92-98.
[20]RACKWITZ R.Optimization and risk acceptability based onthe life quality index[J].Structural Safety,2002,24(2-4):297-331.
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