长江上游地区泥石流灾害敏感性量化评价研究
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摘要
泥石流敏感性分析对灾害分析评价预测具有重要作用。文章以长江上游为研究区,选择坡度、相对高差、地层岩性、年降雨量、地震烈度等5方面因素为评价因子,探讨运用GIS技术管理分析泥石流灾害信息和区域泥石流敏感性分析的方法。量化评价因子的作用分值大小,有效表达泥石流敏感性指数(DFSI),进而,结合空间分析与条件概率模型,实现了区域泥石流敏感性分析并制作了泥石流敏感性专题图。长江上游地区泥石流敏感性区域具有一定的规律性,高度敏感区主要分布在第一级阶梯与第二级阶梯的过渡地带,比较集中的区域有雅砻江中下游、安宁河、小江、普渡河、大渡河中下游、理塘河、白龙江、岷江上游、涪江上游等干支流的5～10 km范围内;中度敏感区主要分布在高度敏感区的外围约10～30 km范围内。利用历史泥石流资料验证,表明已经发生的泥石流主要分布在泥石流敏感性指数较高地区,说明敏感性分析的结果基本反映出研究区泥石流敏感性特性。
It is very important to analyze the debris flow susceptibility for hazard analysis,evaluation and prediction.Based on GIS technology,the debris flow susceptibility for the upper Yangtze River basin was evaluated,with slope,relative elevation,stratum lithology,annual rainfall and earthquake intensity as evaluation factors.Through quantitatively analyzing the potential probability of triggering factors,visualizing the debris flow susceptibility index(DFSI) and applying spatial analysis and conditional probability model,susceptibility analysis and topic mapping for regional debris flow were studied.Analysis result showed that the susceptive regions of debris flow have some distribution characteristics in the upper Yangtze River basin.High sensitive area is the transition area between the first stepped landform and second stepped landform in China,mainly within a 5 to 10 km distance of artery of Anning River,Xiaojiang River,Pudu River,mid and lower reaches of Dadu River,Bailong River,Litang River,the upper reaches of Min River and Fujiang River.Middle sensitive area is within a distance of 10~30 km around high sensitive area.According to historical data,it shows the debris flows that have happened distribute in high DFSI area and topic map can express the characteristics of debris flows in the upper Yangtze River basin.
It is very important to analyze the debris flow susceptibility for hazard analysis,evaluation and prediction.Based on GIS technology,the debris flow susceptibility for the upper Yangtze River basin was evaluated,with slope,relative elevation,stratum lithology,annual rainfall and earthquake intensity as evaluation factors.Through quantitatively analyzing the potential probability of triggering factors,visualizing the debris flow susceptibility index(DFSI) and applying spatial analysis and conditional probability model,susceptibility analysis and topic mapping for regional debris flow were studied.Analysis result showed that the susceptive regions of debris flow have some distribution characteristics in the upper Yangtze River basin.High sensitive area is the transition area between the first stepped landform and second stepped landform in China,mainly within a 5 to 10 km distance of artery of Anning River,Xiaojiang River,Pudu River,mid and lower reaches of Dadu River,Bailong River,Litang River,the upper reaches of Min River and Fujiang River.Middle sensitive area is within a distance of 10~30 km around high sensitive area.According to historical data,it shows the debris flows that have happened distribute in high DFSI area and topic map can express the characteristics of debris flows in the upper Yangtze River basin.
引文
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[15]向灵芝,崔鹏,张建强,等.汶川县地震诱发崩滑灾害影响因素的敏感性分析[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2010,42(5):105-112.Xiang Ling-zhi,Cui Peng,Zhang Jian-qiang,et al.Trig-gering factors susceptibility of earthquake-induced collapsesand landslides in Wenchuan County[J].Journal of SichuanUniversity:Engineering Science Edition,2010,42(5):105-112.(in Chinese)
[16]张建强,范建容,严冬,等.地震诱发崩塌滑坡敏感性评价:以北川县为例[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2009,41(3):140-145.Zhang Jian-qiang,Fan Jian-rong,Yan Dong,et al.Sensi-tivity evaluation to the earthquake-induced landslide andcollapse:A case study of Beichuan County,Sichuan Province[J].Journal of Sichuan University:Engineering Science Edi-tion,2009,41(3):140-145.(in Chinese)
[17]兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1500-1506.Lan Heng-xing,Wu Fa-quan,Zhou Cheng-hu,et al.Analysis on susceptibility of GIS based landslide triggeringfactors in Yunnan Xiaojiang watershed[J].Chinese Journalof Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2002,21(10):1500-1506.(in Chinese)
[18]骆银辉,夏柏如,李俊东,等.“三江”并流区地质灾害危险性量化评价[J].环境科学与技术,2010,33(9):192-196.Luo Yin-hui,Xia Bai-ru,Li Jun-dong,et al.Quantitativeevaluation for danger level of geologic hazards in the regionof three parallel rivers[J].Environmental Science&Technol-ogy,2010,33(9):192-196.(in Chinese)
[19]朱平一,程尊兰,汪阳春.长江上游暴雨泥石流与环境研究[J].水土保持学报,2000,14(5):35-41.Zhu Ping-yi,Cheng Zun-lan,Wang Yang-chun.Researchof rainfall-debris flow and environment in upper reaches ofYangtze River[J].Journal of Soil Water Conservation,2000,14(5):35-41.(in Chinese)
[20]李树德,任秀生,岳升阳,等.地震与泥石流活动[J].水土保持学报,2001,8(2):26-27.Li Shu-de,Ren Xiu-sheng,Yue Sheng-yang,et al.Earthquake and debris flow activities[J].Research of Soil andWater Conservation,2001,8(2):26-27.(in Chinese)
[21]Carrasco R M,Pedraza J F.Hazard zoning for landslidesconnected to torrential floods in the Jerte Valley(Spain)byusing GIS techniques[J].Natural Hazards,2003,30:361-381.
[22]唐川.金沙江流域(云南境内)山地灾害危险性评价[J].山地学报,2004,22(4):451-460.Tang Chuan.Assessment of mountain disasters in JinshaRiver watershed of Yunnan[J].Journal of Soil MountainScience,2004,22(4):451-460.(in Chinese)
[2]Pike R J.Quantifying landslide-terrain types from digitalelevation models[J].Mathematical Geology,1998,20(5):491-511.
[3]Carrara A.Multivariate methods for landslide hazard evalua-tion[J].Mathematical Geology,1983,15:403-426.
[4]Chung C F,Fabbri A G.Probabilistic prediction models forlandslide hazard mapping[J].Photogrammetric Engineer-ing&Remote Sensing,1999,65(12):1388-1399.
[5]Montgomery D R,Dietrich W E.A physically based modelfor the topographic control on shallow landsliding[J].WaterResource Research,1994,30(4):1157-1171.
[6]Dietrich E W,Reisss R,Hsu M L,et al.A process-basedmodel for colluvial soil depth and shallow landsliding usingdigital elevation data[J].Hydrological Processes,1995,9:383-400.
[7]Arora M K,DasGupta A S,Gupta R P.An artificial neuralnetwork approach for landslide hazard zonation in the Bha-girathi(Ganga)Valley,Himalayas[J].International Journalof Remote Sensing,2004,25(3):559-572.
[8]李长江,麻土华,朱兴盛,等.区域群发性滑坡灾害概率预报系统[J].国土资源信息化,2005(4):32-38.Li Chang-jiang,Ma Tu-hua,Zhu Xing-sheng,et al.Probability prediction system for regional group-occurringlandslide hazards[J].Land and Resources Information,2005(4):32-38.(in Chinese)
[9]Majid H,Tangestani.A comparative study of dempster-shafer and fuzzy models for landslide susceptibility mappingusing a GIS:An experience from Zagros Mountains,SW I-ran[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2009,35:66-73.
[10]叶少有,符烨敏,陆俊.基于模糊综合评判的河堤滑坡分类聚类分析[J].工程与建设,2007,21(5):676-678.Ye Shao-you,Fu Hua-min,Lu Jun.Classification and clus-ter analysis of riverbank landslide based on fuzzy syntheticappraisal[J].Engineering and Construction,2007,21(5):676-678.(in Chinese)
[11]胡德勇,李京,陈云浩,等.基于GIS的热带雨林地区滑坡敏感性分析:马来西亚金马伦高原个案研究[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(6):147-152.Hu De-yong,Li Jing,Chen Yun-hao,et al.GIS-basedsusceptibility analysis of landslide in tropical rainforestarea:A case study of Cameron Highland,Malaysia[J].Jour-nal of Natural Disasters,2008,17(6):147-152.(in Chinese)
[12]崔鹏,林勇明.自然因素与工程作用对山区道路泥石流、滑坡形成的影响[J].灾害学,2007,22(3):11-12.Cui Peng,Lin Yong-ming.Influences of natural and engi-neering factors on formation of debris flow and landslide a-long mountainous roads[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2007,22(3):11-12.(in Chinese)
[13]唐川.云南怒江流域泥石流敏感性空间分析[J].地理研究,2005,24(2):178-185.Tang Chuan.Susceptibility spatial analysis of debris flowsin the Nujiang River basin of Yunnan[J].Geographical Re-search,2005,24(2):178-185.(in Chinese)
[14]Adnan Ozdemir.Landslide susceptibility mapping of vicini-ty of yaka landslide(Gelendost,Turkey)using conditionalprobability approach in GIS[J].Environmental Geology,2009,57(7):1675-1686.
[15]向灵芝,崔鹏,张建强,等.汶川县地震诱发崩滑灾害影响因素的敏感性分析[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2010,42(5):105-112.Xiang Ling-zhi,Cui Peng,Zhang Jian-qiang,et al.Trig-gering factors susceptibility of earthquake-induced collapsesand landslides in Wenchuan County[J].Journal of SichuanUniversity:Engineering Science Edition,2010,42(5):105-112.(in Chinese)
[16]张建强,范建容,严冬,等.地震诱发崩塌滑坡敏感性评价:以北川县为例[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2009,41(3):140-145.Zhang Jian-qiang,Fan Jian-rong,Yan Dong,et al.Sensi-tivity evaluation to the earthquake-induced landslide andcollapse:A case study of Beichuan County,Sichuan Province[J].Journal of Sichuan University:Engineering Science Edi-tion,2009,41(3):140-145.(in Chinese)
[17]兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1500-1506.Lan Heng-xing,Wu Fa-quan,Zhou Cheng-hu,et al.Analysis on susceptibility of GIS based landslide triggeringfactors in Yunnan Xiaojiang watershed[J].Chinese Journalof Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2002,21(10):1500-1506.(in Chinese)
[18]骆银辉,夏柏如,李俊东,等.“三江”并流区地质灾害危险性量化评价[J].环境科学与技术,2010,33(9):192-196.Luo Yin-hui,Xia Bai-ru,Li Jun-dong,et al.Quantitativeevaluation for danger level of geologic hazards in the regionof three parallel rivers[J].Environmental Science&Technol-ogy,2010,33(9):192-196.(in Chinese)
[19]朱平一,程尊兰,汪阳春.长江上游暴雨泥石流与环境研究[J].水土保持学报,2000,14(5):35-41.Zhu Ping-yi,Cheng Zun-lan,Wang Yang-chun.Researchof rainfall-debris flow and environment in upper reaches ofYangtze River[J].Journal of Soil Water Conservation,2000,14(5):35-41.(in Chinese)
[20]李树德,任秀生,岳升阳,等.地震与泥石流活动[J].水土保持学报,2001,8(2):26-27.Li Shu-de,Ren Xiu-sheng,Yue Sheng-yang,et al.Earthquake and debris flow activities[J].Research of Soil andWater Conservation,2001,8(2):26-27.(in Chinese)
[21]Carrasco R M,Pedraza J F.Hazard zoning for landslidesconnected to torrential floods in the Jerte Valley(Spain)byusing GIS techniques[J].Natural Hazards,2003,30:361-381.
[22]唐川.金沙江流域(云南境内)山地灾害危险性评价[J].山地学报,2004,22(4):451-460.Tang Chuan.Assessment of mountain disasters in JinshaRiver watershed of Yunnan[J].Journal of Soil MountainScience,2004,22(4):451-460.(in Chinese)
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