对称性与部分重大自然灾害趋势研究
|
摘要
鉴于重大自然灾害为非孤立存在,且同一区域内发生重大自然灾害往往为有联系的灾害事件群,在掌握灾害基本信息后分析其时空对称性规律,为今后部分重大自然灾害发生趋势研究提供了参考。在时间对称性方面,主要采用可公度信息提取方法和"蝴蝶结构图"法对部分重大自然灾害进行趋势预测,案例分析结果表明:乌鲁木齐2011年发生Ms≥5.6级地震、太湖流域2011年发生洪水灾害、淮河流域2013年发生水灾信号较强。在空间对称性方面,主要应用于地震灾害趋势预测,通过对每一期地震震源点位置统计综合构建多边形结构(三角形或四边形结构)考虑其象限分布对称性。对1500年以来中国大陆17次Ms≥8级地震及云南20次Ms≥7级地震划分地震期判断,得出相邻两期地震时间间隔呈缩短趋势,地震有加快发展迹象,而未来地震空间位置指向云南东部地区。
It is difficult to predict and forecast several natural disasters currently.Major natural disasters frequently occurred synchronously.Several major natrual disasters generally occurred as one disaster incident group in a region.In this paper,we proposed the law of time-space symmetry of disasters,based on the basic information of each disaster.In the aspect of time symmetry,we carried out both the method of commensurability information extraction and Map of Butterfly Structure(MBS).We improved the commensurability information extraction method firstly proposed by Weng Wenbo here.On the other hand,the MBS theory in the process of commensurability study for prediction was primarily proposed.From MBS,we defined the characteristic tendencies of disaster occurrence.MBS simplfied the time period of partial major natural disasters.In this paper,it is foreseen that the following events would happen in high probability in the future: the earthquake(Ms≥5.6) in Urumqi in 2011,the flood damage in Taihu Basin in 2011 and in Huaihe River Basin in 2013.In the part of spatial symmetry,MBS was mainly used in the judgement of seismic disasters.Through the statistics of earthquake focus in each period,we built polygons(triangle or quadrilateral),and considered the symmetry in quadrant distribution.Spatial symmetry laws were revealed in this study to validate the trends manifested in a number of major natural disasters.It was observed that earthquakes occurrences in the last 500 years in Mainland China(Ms≥8) and 20 earthquakes in Yunnan(Ms≥7) had accelerated development tendency.The terminals of earthquakes in adjacent seismic periods became shorter.Spatial symmetry analysis indicated that seismic spatial information was more concentrated on a specific point.Thus,it is highly possible for strong earthquakes(Ms≥7) to occur in the eastern part of Yunnan in the next few years.Otherwise,these factors provided the prediction principles for several natural calamities,which was consistent with global changes.
It is difficult to predict and forecast several natural disasters currently.Major natural disasters frequently occurred synchronously.Several major natrual disasters generally occurred as one disaster incident group in a region.In this paper,we proposed the law of time-space symmetry of disasters,based on the basic information of each disaster.In the aspect of time symmetry,we carried out both the method of commensurability information extraction and Map of Butterfly Structure(MBS).We improved the commensurability information extraction method firstly proposed by Weng Wenbo here.On the other hand,the MBS theory in the process of commensurability study for prediction was primarily proposed.From MBS,we defined the characteristic tendencies of disaster occurrence.MBS simplfied the time period of partial major natural disasters.In this paper,it is foreseen that the following events would happen in high probability in the future: the earthquake(Ms≥5.6) in Urumqi in 2011,the flood damage in Taihu Basin in 2011 and in Huaihe River Basin in 2013.In the part of spatial symmetry,MBS was mainly used in the judgement of seismic disasters.Through the statistics of earthquake focus in each period,we built polygons(triangle or quadrilateral),and considered the symmetry in quadrant distribution.Spatial symmetry laws were revealed in this study to validate the trends manifested in a number of major natural disasters.It was observed that earthquakes occurrences in the last 500 years in Mainland China(Ms≥8) and 20 earthquakes in Yunnan(Ms≥7) had accelerated development tendency.The terminals of earthquakes in adjacent seismic periods became shorter.Spatial symmetry analysis indicated that seismic spatial information was more concentrated on a specific point.Thus,it is highly possible for strong earthquakes(Ms≥7) to occur in the eastern part of Yunnan in the next few years.Otherwise,these factors provided the prediction principles for several natural calamities,which was consistent with global changes.
引文
[1]IPCC Summary for Policymakers of Cli mate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of WorkingGroupⅠto the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli mate Change.Cambridge:Cam-bridge University Press,2007.
[2]延军平,郑宇.秦岭南北地区环境变化响应比较研究.地理研究,2001,20(5):576~582.
[3]刘燕华,李钜章,赵跃龙.中国近期自然灾害程度的区域特征.地理研究,1995,14(3):14~25.
[4]孙宗扬.物理学中的对称性.合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社,2009.5,33.
[5]徐一鸿.可畏的对称.北京:清华大学出版社,2005.15,68~69.
[6]马宗晋,杜品仁.地球的非对称性.合肥:安徽教育出版社,2007.3~21.
[7]冯培恩,马志勇,邱清盈,等.从自然科学到工程科学的对称性本体论研究.自然科学进展,2008,18(12):1441~1450.
[8]翁文波.预测论基础.北京:石油工业出版社,1984.123,131,137~138.
[9]延军平,闫军辉,白晶,等.基于可公度方法的陕西及邻近地区重大自然灾害发生趋势探讨.灾害学,2010,25(2):18~20.
[10]Emmy Noether.Invariant variation problems.Transport Theory Statist.Physics,1971,1(3):186~207.
[11]翁文波.可公度性.地球物理学报,1981,24(2):151~154.
[12]徐道一.大地震发生的网络性质——兼论有关地震预测的争论.地学前缘,2001,8(2):211~216.
[13]门可佩.新疆及其邻区M≥7强震的预测研究.西北地震学报,1994,16(4):29~36.
[14]王富强,许士国.长江流域洪水的可公度性及其预测研究.长江科学院院报,2008,25(6):23~27.
[15]李均之,苏成,夏雅琴.可公度信息系在强震预报中的应用.北京工业大学学报,2007,33(1):108~112.
[16]田在艺,徐旺,张传淦,等.愿翁文波院士的预测事业能继续发展.石油勘探与开发,2002,29(6):105~106.
[17]龙小霞,延军平,孙虎,等.基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究.灾害学,2006,21(3):81~84.
[18]延军平,闫娜.关于地震预测体系构建的可能性及验证.陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008,37(5):19~23.
[19]刘新平,刘存侠.教育统计与测评导论.北京:科学出版社,2008.74~75.
[20]翁文波,吕牛顿,张清.预测学.北京:石油工业出版社,1996.126.
[21]乌鲁木齐综合减灾规划研究课题组.乌鲁木齐综合减灾规划研究.北京:地震出版社,2001.25.
[22]胡昌新,胡岚.太湖流域洪水的周期信息图及其可公度性法预测.水文,2009,29(5):90~92.
[23]白晶,延军平,苏坤慧.新疆Ms≥7地震时空对称性及未来趋势判断.内陆地震,2010,24(4):323~329.
[24]中国地震局监测预报司预报管理处.中国强地震目录.2005.1~55.
[25]许绍燮,沈佩文.北京周围地区地震的分布特点与地壳屈曲.地震学报,1980,2(5):153~168.
[26]秦嘉政,钱晓东,刘丽芳.云南强震活动间隔时间特征研究.地震研究,2009,32(3):221~227.
[27]董春雨,王德胜.对称性与人对自然的理解.自然辩证法研究,2003,19(6):18~20.
[28]张祥平.确认—承认—兼认——科学研究的基础和研究方法的发展.北京农学院学报,1998,13(4):87~93.
[2]延军平,郑宇.秦岭南北地区环境变化响应比较研究.地理研究,2001,20(5):576~582.
[3]刘燕华,李钜章,赵跃龙.中国近期自然灾害程度的区域特征.地理研究,1995,14(3):14~25.
[4]孙宗扬.物理学中的对称性.合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社,2009.5,33.
[5]徐一鸿.可畏的对称.北京:清华大学出版社,2005.15,68~69.
[6]马宗晋,杜品仁.地球的非对称性.合肥:安徽教育出版社,2007.3~21.
[7]冯培恩,马志勇,邱清盈,等.从自然科学到工程科学的对称性本体论研究.自然科学进展,2008,18(12):1441~1450.
[8]翁文波.预测论基础.北京:石油工业出版社,1984.123,131,137~138.
[9]延军平,闫军辉,白晶,等.基于可公度方法的陕西及邻近地区重大自然灾害发生趋势探讨.灾害学,2010,25(2):18~20.
[10]Emmy Noether.Invariant variation problems.Transport Theory Statist.Physics,1971,1(3):186~207.
[11]翁文波.可公度性.地球物理学报,1981,24(2):151~154.
[12]徐道一.大地震发生的网络性质——兼论有关地震预测的争论.地学前缘,2001,8(2):211~216.
[13]门可佩.新疆及其邻区M≥7强震的预测研究.西北地震学报,1994,16(4):29~36.
[14]王富强,许士国.长江流域洪水的可公度性及其预测研究.长江科学院院报,2008,25(6):23~27.
[15]李均之,苏成,夏雅琴.可公度信息系在强震预报中的应用.北京工业大学学报,2007,33(1):108~112.
[16]田在艺,徐旺,张传淦,等.愿翁文波院士的预测事业能继续发展.石油勘探与开发,2002,29(6):105~106.
[17]龙小霞,延军平,孙虎,等.基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究.灾害学,2006,21(3):81~84.
[18]延军平,闫娜.关于地震预测体系构建的可能性及验证.陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008,37(5):19~23.
[19]刘新平,刘存侠.教育统计与测评导论.北京:科学出版社,2008.74~75.
[20]翁文波,吕牛顿,张清.预测学.北京:石油工业出版社,1996.126.
[21]乌鲁木齐综合减灾规划研究课题组.乌鲁木齐综合减灾规划研究.北京:地震出版社,2001.25.
[22]胡昌新,胡岚.太湖流域洪水的周期信息图及其可公度性法预测.水文,2009,29(5):90~92.
[23]白晶,延军平,苏坤慧.新疆Ms≥7地震时空对称性及未来趋势判断.内陆地震,2010,24(4):323~329.
[24]中国地震局监测预报司预报管理处.中国强地震目录.2005.1~55.
[25]许绍燮,沈佩文.北京周围地区地震的分布特点与地壳屈曲.地震学报,1980,2(5):153~168.
[26]秦嘉政,钱晓东,刘丽芳.云南强震活动间隔时间特征研究.地震研究,2009,32(3):221~227.
[27]董春雨,王德胜.对称性与人对自然的理解.自然辩证法研究,2003,19(6):18~20.
[28]张祥平.确认—承认—兼认——科学研究的基础和研究方法的发展.北京农学院学报,1998,13(4):87~93.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心