基于概念决策模型的油气勘探模拟——以伊朗西南部德兹夫尔海湾为例
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摘要
针对含油气盆地勘探模拟问题,提出伊朗西南部德兹夫尔海湾地区油田勘探的概念决策模型。模型主要由特性生成、勘探模拟、决策分析、经济评价4个部分组成,基于贝叶斯决策理论进行勘探决策,制定合适的勘探策略。以伊朗德兹夫尔海湾地区油气勘探为例,获取了该地区油田对不同勘探方法的响应关系,生成异常区和油藏的空间分布,进行盆地勘探模拟。模拟结果证实了模型的准确性,研究区储集层受构造要素控制,要准确确定油藏规模和目标点,应依据地震勘探方法,而非地质图和地下构造图,研究区未来勘探中采用地震勘探方法可获得更好的勘探效果。
A conceptual decision model was designed to approximate the exploration of a petroleum basin in the Dezful Embayment,southwestern Iran.The model consists of four parts,namely,attribute creation,exploration simulation,decision analysis,and economic evaluation,and it is used to make exploration decisions according to Bayesian decision theory.With the oil and gas exploration in the Dezful Embayment as an example,the responses of oilfield geologic conditions to various exploration methods were obtained to create abnormal areas and reservoir distribution,and to simulate the exploration process of the basin.The simulation results prove that the model is accurate.The reservoirs in the study area are controlled by structural elements,so seismic data rather than surface and subsurface geologic maps should be used to figure out reservoir scale and targets.
A conceptual decision model was designed to approximate the exploration of a petroleum basin in the Dezful Embayment,southwestern Iran.The model consists of four parts,namely,attribute creation,exploration simulation,decision analysis,and economic evaluation,and it is used to make exploration decisions according to Bayesian decision theory.With the oil and gas exploration in the Dezful Embayment as an example,the responses of oilfield geologic conditions to various exploration methods were obtained to create abnormal areas and reservoir distribution,and to simulate the exploration process of the basin.The simulation results prove that the model is accurate.The reservoirs in the study area are controlled by structural elements,so seismic data rather than surface and subsurface geologic maps should be used to figure out reservoir scale and targets.
引文
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[2]Davis J C,Harrbaugh J W.A simulation model for oil exploration incontinental shelves[J].Economics of Exploration for EnergyResources,1981,26:19-50.
[3]Cozzolino J M.Measurement and projection of exploration searchefficiency[R].SPE 7456,1979.
[4]King K R.Bayesian decision theory and computer simulation appliedto multistage,sequential petroleum exploration[D].Pennsylvania:The Pennsylvania State University,1971.
[5]Hantschel T,Kauerauf A.Fundamentals of basin and petroleumsystems modeling[M].New York:Springer Publishing,2009.
[6]Allen P A,Allen J R.Basin analysis:Principles and application topetroleum play assessment[M].3rd Edition.New Jersey:Wiley-Blackwell,2013.
[7]Schneider F,Wolf S,Faille I,et al.A 3D basin model for hydrocarbonpotential evaluation:Application to Congo offshore[J].Oil and GasScience and Technology,2000,55:3-13.
[8]Pannell D J.Sensitivity analysis of normative economic models:Theoretical framework and practical strategies[J].AgriculturalEconomics,1997,16(2):51-60.
[9]Telnaes N,Zwach C,Fladmark G.3D basin modeling:A new tool forpetroleum system analysis[R].Calgary:16th World PetroleumCongress,2000.
[10]Kagawa T,Zhao B,Miyakoshi K.A case study in constructing a 3-Dbasin structure model corresponding to information available in thetarget area[R].Vancouver:13th World Conference on EarthquakeEngineering,2004.
[11]Müller J P,Guzofski C,Rivero C.New approaches to 3D structuralrestoration in fold-and-thrust belts using growth strata[R].Calgary:AAPG Annual Meeting,2005.
[12]Cozzolino J M.Sequential search for an unknown number of objectsof nonuniform size[J].Operational Research,1979,20:293-308.
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