地震应变加速释放模型在华东地区应用
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摘要
根据华东地区的地震活动特点,定义较简单的半径搜索方法,遵循一定的准则挑选出1976年以来华东地区满足震前累积应变加速释放模型(ASR)的14次ML≥4.5地震序列。将"破裂—时间分析"法的非线性方程分成两个线性方程,采用线性最小二乘法拟合参数k/m与主震矩的经验关系,确定华东地区的ASR模型,并用来预测主震的时间和震级。经检验该方法预测震级误差约为±0.3,发震时间误差约±1.68 a。
According to the characteristics of seismic activity in East China,we define a simple approach of searching radius and choose fourteen ML≥4.5 earthquake sequences since 1976 in East China which satisfy the pre-seismic Accelerating Strain Release(ASR) model.We express the nonlinear time-to-failure analysis equation with two linear equations and fit the empirical relation between the coefficient k/m and the main seismic moment tensor by means of Linear Least Square method in order to construct ASR model of East China for the prediction of the time and magnitude of the main shock in East China.Comparing the magnitude and the original time from the ASR model with the ones of the occurred strong shocks,we find that the magnitude error is ±0.3 and the time error is ±1.68 years.
According to the characteristics of seismic activity in East China,we define a simple approach of searching radius and choose fourteen ML≥4.5 earthquake sequences since 1976 in East China which satisfy the pre-seismic Accelerating Strain Release(ASR) model.We express the nonlinear time-to-failure analysis equation with two linear equations and fit the empirical relation between the coefficient k/m and the main seismic moment tensor by means of Linear Least Square method in order to construct ASR model of East China for the prediction of the time and magnitude of the main shock in East China.Comparing the magnitude and the original time from the ASR model with the ones of the occurred strong shocks,we find that the magnitude error is ±0.3 and the time error is ±1.68 years.
引文
蒋长胜,吴忠良.2009.强震前的“加速矩释放”(AMR)现象:对一个有争议的地震前兆的回溯性震例研究[J].地球物理学报,52(3):691-702.
蒋海昆,苗青壮,董祥,等.2009.中国大陆7级强震前中小地震应变释放特征[J].地震,29(3):1-10.
李强.2000.华东地区地震活动的加速模型分析[J].西北地震学报,22(4):419-423.
钱晓东.2010.破裂时间法在云南小江断裂带强震预测中的应用[J].地震研究,33(2):138-146.
秦嘉政,钱晓东.2004.利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究[J].地震学报,26(2):140-150.
杨文政,马丽.1999.地震活动加速模型及其在中国的应用[J].地震学报,21(1):32-41.
Bowman D D,Quillon G,Sammis C G,et al.1998.An observational test ofthe critical earthquake concept[J].JGR,103(NB10):24359-24372.
Brehm D J,Braile L W.1998.Intermediate-term earthquake predictionusing precursory events in the New Madrid Seismic Zone[J].BSSA,88(2):564-580.
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Bufe C G,Varnes D J.1993.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle ofthe greater San Francisco Bay region[J].JGR,98(B6):9871-9883.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1956.Earthquake magnitude,intensity,energyand acceleration[J].BSSA,46(2):105-145.
JauméS C,Sykes L R.1999.Evolving towards a critical point:A review ofaccelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and greatearthquake[J].Pure Appl Geophys,155(2-4):279-305.
Jiang C S,Wu Z L.2006.Benioff strain release before earthquakes in Chi-na:accelerating or not?[J].Pure Appl Geophys,163(9):1965-1976,doi:10.1007/s00024-006-0107-1.
Knopoff L,Levshina T,Keilis-Borok V I,et al.1996.Increased long-range intermediate magnitude earthquake activity prior to strongearthquakes in California[J].JGR,101(B3):5779-5796.
Mignan A,Giovambattista R D.2008.Relationship between acceleratingseismicity and quiescence,two precursors to large earthquakes[J].Geophys Res Lett,35,L15306,doi:10.1029/2008GL035024.
Sykes L R,JauméS C.1990.Seismic activity on neighboring faults as along term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Fancisco Bay ar-ea[J].Nature,348:595-599.
Varnes D J.1989.Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating pre-cursory seismic activity[J].Pure Appl Geophys,130(4):661-686.
Wang Y C,Yin C,Mora P,et al.2004.Spatio-temporal scanning andstatistical test of the accelerating moment release(AMR)model usingAustralian earthquake data[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161(11-12):2281-2293.
蒋海昆,苗青壮,董祥,等.2009.中国大陆7级强震前中小地震应变释放特征[J].地震,29(3):1-10.
李强.2000.华东地区地震活动的加速模型分析[J].西北地震学报,22(4):419-423.
钱晓东.2010.破裂时间法在云南小江断裂带强震预测中的应用[J].地震研究,33(2):138-146.
秦嘉政,钱晓东.2004.利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究[J].地震学报,26(2):140-150.
杨文政,马丽.1999.地震活动加速模型及其在中国的应用[J].地震学报,21(1):32-41.
Bowman D D,Quillon G,Sammis C G,et al.1998.An observational test ofthe critical earthquake concept[J].JGR,103(NB10):24359-24372.
Brehm D J,Braile L W.1998.Intermediate-term earthquake predictionusing precursory events in the New Madrid Seismic Zone[J].BSSA,88(2):564-580.
Brehm D J,Braile L W.1999.Intermediate-term earthquake predictionusing the modified time-to-failure method in southern California[J].BSSA,89(1):275-293.
Bufe C G,Varnes D J.1993.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle ofthe greater San Francisco Bay region[J].JGR,98(B6):9871-9883.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1956.Earthquake magnitude,intensity,energyand acceleration[J].BSSA,46(2):105-145.
JauméS C,Sykes L R.1999.Evolving towards a critical point:A review ofaccelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and greatearthquake[J].Pure Appl Geophys,155(2-4):279-305.
Jiang C S,Wu Z L.2006.Benioff strain release before earthquakes in Chi-na:accelerating or not?[J].Pure Appl Geophys,163(9):1965-1976,doi:10.1007/s00024-006-0107-1.
Knopoff L,Levshina T,Keilis-Borok V I,et al.1996.Increased long-range intermediate magnitude earthquake activity prior to strongearthquakes in California[J].JGR,101(B3):5779-5796.
Mignan A,Giovambattista R D.2008.Relationship between acceleratingseismicity and quiescence,two precursors to large earthquakes[J].Geophys Res Lett,35,L15306,doi:10.1029/2008GL035024.
Sykes L R,JauméS C.1990.Seismic activity on neighboring faults as along term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Fancisco Bay ar-ea[J].Nature,348:595-599.
Varnes D J.1989.Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating pre-cursory seismic activity[J].Pure Appl Geophys,130(4):661-686.
Wang Y C,Yin C,Mora P,et al.2004.Spatio-temporal scanning andstatistical test of the accelerating moment release(AMR)model usingAustralian earthquake data[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161(11-12):2281-2293.
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