改进型BP-网络的岩溶塌陷预测评价
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摘要
为了解决多因素影响下岩溶塌陷预测评价问题,采用改进型BP-神经网络方法,推导带参数的神经网络公式,分析学习因子、动量因子和陡度因子的变化对系统收敛性的影响,确定最优的参数组合,并以唐山市区为例,建立了岩溶塌陷安全性评价模型.研究结果表明:基于改进型BP-神经网络的岩溶塌陷预测与实际情况吻合很好.该成果对中国地震多发区和地下水严重开采区的岩溶塌陷预测具有借鉴作用.
In order to solve the prediction and assessment problem of karst collapse under multi-factor conditions,this paper adopts the improved BP-neural network method,deduces the formula of ANN with parameters,and analyzes the impact of system convergence caused by variation of three factors of BP-neural network including learning factors,momentum factors and steepness factors,determines an optimal parameter combination,and constructs a safety assessment model of karst collapse in Tangshan City.The result of calculation shows very good consistency with actual conditions.The production holds a good reference to the karst collapse prediction of earthquake-prone areas and serious groundwater mining area in China.
In order to solve the prediction and assessment problem of karst collapse under multi-factor conditions,this paper adopts the improved BP-neural network method,deduces the formula of ANN with parameters,and analyzes the impact of system convergence caused by variation of three factors of BP-neural network including learning factors,momentum factors and steepness factors,determines an optimal parameter combination,and constructs a safety assessment model of karst collapse in Tangshan City.The result of calculation shows very good consistency with actual conditions.The production holds a good reference to the karst collapse prediction of earthquake-prone areas and serious groundwater mining area in China.
引文
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[2]魏凤华.唐山市岩溶塌陷机制分析[J].地质与勘探,2006,42(2):86-89.Wei Fenghua.Study in the mechanism of karst collapse in Tangshancity[J].Geology and Prospecting,2006,42(2):86-89.
[3]郑彦华,李昌存.唐山市典型岩溶塌陷概述[J].地球与环境,2005,33(增刊):331-336.Zheng Yanhua,Li Changcun.The type of karst collapse summarizationin Tangshan[J].Earth and Environment,.2005,33(sup):331-336.
[4]朱庆杰,刘挺权,张秀彦.唐山市岩溶塌陷的神经网络预测模型[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报:自然科学版,2003,22(6):753-755.Zhu Qingjie,Liu Tingquan,Zhang Xiuyan.Neural network predictingmodel of karst collapse in Tangshan city[J].Journal of LiaoningTechnical University:Natural Science,2003,22(6):753-755.
[5]朱庆杰,苏幼坡,刘廷全.唐山市岩溶塌陷安全评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2004,14(2):91-94.Zhu Qingjie,Su Youpo,Liu Tingquan.Safety evaluation of karstcollapse in Tangshan City[J].China Safety Science Journal,2004,14(2):91-94.
[6]陈静,马亚杰,朱庆杰.人工神经网络模型在岩溶塌陷安全评价中的应用[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2005,16(2):139-144.Chen Jing,Ma Yajie,Zhu Qingjie.Application of neural network modelto safety evaluationin for karst collapse[J].Journal of Geolo-gicalHazards and Environment Preservation,2005,16(2):139-144.
[7]王洪涛.唐山市城市岩溶地面塌陷地质灾害与宏观减灾对策研究[D].北京:中国地质大学,1995.Wang Hongtao.Urban karst land collapse hazard in Tangshan and itsremedial strategy[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences,1995.
[8]付林平,宋利震,付丹平,等.唐山市滨河路西陡河河床岩溶塌陷调查[J].河北遥感,2011(11):22-24.Fu Linping,Song Lizhen,Fu Danping,et al.Investigation of karstcollapse on the west Binhe road of Douhe river in TangshanCity[J].Hebei remote sensing,2011(11):22-24.
[9]韩立群.人工神经网络理论设计及应用[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2007.Han Liqun.Artificial neural network theory design and application[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2007.
[10]李忠,宁书年,张进德,等.矿山灾害评价的BP-神经网络模型研究[J].计算机工程与应用,2007,43(16):238-240.Li Zhong,Ning Shunian,Zhang Jinde,etc.Research for the model ofBP neural network in assessment of mine disaster[J].ComputerEngineering and Applications,2007,43(16):238-240.
[11]于红志,刘凤鑫,邹开其.改进的模糊BP神经网络及在犯罪预测中的应用[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报:自然科学版,2012,31(2):244-247.Yu Hongzhi,Liu Fengxin,Zou Kaiqi.Improved fuzzy BP neuralnetwork and its application in crime prediction[J].Journal of LiaoningTechnical University:Natural Science,2012,31(2):244-247.
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