水库地震的综合概率增益预测法研究
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摘要
在水库地震预测中首次引进了地震概率增益综合预测模型,叙述了该方法的基本原理;探讨了影响水库地震最大震级发生的因素;结合中国水库及其水库地震震例资料,对水库地震综合影响因素E值、库容、库水深度因素或指标预测水库地震最大震级的效能R值和经验概率增益K值进行了统计和评价,表明概率增益综合预测能够对各种预测方法预测水库地震的效果进行定量分析。在此基础上,选择国内外若干水库进行了水库地震最大震级回溯性检验,表明该方法作为一种新的水库地震最大震级预测方法是可行的。
The synthetic probability gain model for earthquake prediction is first introduced into the prediction of reservoir induced earthquake.Its basic principle is described.The possible factors affecting the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake are approached.According to the basic reservoir data and the cases of reservoir induced earthquakes in China,the forecast efficiency R-value and the empirical probability gain K-value of partial factors or predicting indices for maximum magnitude forecast of reservoir induced earthquake,such as comprehensive effect parameter E-value,the reservoir capacity and the water depth of reservoir,are statistically calculated and appraised.The results demonstrate that the synthetic probability gain model can make a quantitative analysis of the efficiency of the various predicting indices.Then some of reservoirs at home and abroad are selected for retrospective forecast test of maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake using the above indices.The results indicate that the probability gain method is practicable as a new method forecasting the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake.
The synthetic probability gain model for earthquake prediction is first introduced into the prediction of reservoir induced earthquake.Its basic principle is described.The possible factors affecting the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake are approached.According to the basic reservoir data and the cases of reservoir induced earthquakes in China,the forecast efficiency R-value and the empirical probability gain K-value of partial factors or predicting indices for maximum magnitude forecast of reservoir induced earthquake,such as comprehensive effect parameter E-value,the reservoir capacity and the water depth of reservoir,are statistically calculated and appraised.The results demonstrate that the synthetic probability gain model can make a quantitative analysis of the efficiency of the various predicting indices.Then some of reservoirs at home and abroad are selected for retrospective forecast test of maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake using the above indices.The results indicate that the probability gain method is practicable as a new method forecasting the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake.
引文
[1]林思诚,彭美风,1997,水口水库诱发地震的发展趋势及防震减灾对策研究(福建省地震局,工作报告)。
[1]王晓青等,2003,基于强震时空概率增益综合预测模型的十年尺度地震危险性预测方法研究(见国家973项目”大陆强震机理研究”报告)。
常宝琦,梁纪彬.1987.水库“规模”与水库诱发地震震级的预测[J].华南地震,7(1):94-95. CHANG Bao-qi,LIANG Ji-bin.1987.Correlation between the“size”of reservoir and the magnitude of induced earthquake [J].South China Journal of Seismology,7(1):94-95(in Chinese).
常宝琦,梁纪彬.1992.水库诱发地震最大震级的预测[J].华南地震,12(1):74-79. CHANG Bao-qi,LIANG Ji-bin.1992.Prediction about the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake[J]. South China Journal of Seismology,12(1):74-79(in Chinese).
丁香,王晓青.2002.基于MapInfo的中长期地震预测动态系统[J].中国地震,18(1):86-95. DING Xiang,WANG Xiao-qing.2002.The dynamic medium-and long-term earthquake prediction system based on M apInfo[J].Earthquake Research in China,18(1):86-95(in Chinese).
国家地震局地震研究所.1984.中国诱发地震[M].北京:地震出版社.202. Seismological Institute of State Seismological Bureau.1984.Discussion on The Genesis of Reservoir-induced Earthquakes [M].Seismological Press,Beijing.202(in Chinese).
梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.1993.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社.498. MEI Shi-Rong,FENG De-yi,ZHANG Guo-min,et al.1993.Introduction to Earthquake Prediction in China[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.498(in Chinese).
毛玉平,余丰晏,李志祥,等.2008.对水库诱发地震研究的几点认识[J].地震研究,31(4):399-405. MAO Yu-ping,YU Feng-yan,LI Zhi-xiang,et al.2008.Understanding of reservoir-induced seismicity[J].Journal of Seismological Research,31(4):399-405(in Chinese).
王晓青,傅征祥,张立人,等.2000.中长期地震时空概率增益预测模型及其初步应用[J].地震学报,22(1): 45-53. WANG Xiao-qing,FU Zheng-xiang,ZHANG Li-ren,et al.2000.Model of spatial and temporal synthesized probability gains for middle and long-term earthquake forecast and its preliminary application[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica, 13(1):50-60.
王晓青.2000.R值用于地震预测效能评估中的问题与改进[J].中国地震,16(3):256-262. WANG Xiao-qing.2001.The problem and improvement of R-values applied to the assessment of earthquake forecast [J].Earthquake Research in China,16(3):256-262(in Chinese).
王晓青,吕金霞,丁香.2002.强震时-空综合概率增益模型与中长期预测方法效能研究[J].中国地震,18(4): 346-355. WANG Xiao-qing,L(U|¨) Jin-xia,DING Xiang.2002.The spatial-temporal synthetical probability gain model and the study of efficiency of medium-and long-term earthquake prediction methods[J].Earthquake Research in China, 18(4):346-355(in Chinese).
王晓青,邵辉成,丁香.2004.地震预测模型优化方法研究[J].地震,24(2):53-58. WANG Xiao-qing,SHAO Hui-cheng,DING Xiang.2004.Study on efficiency evaluation and optimization of earthquake forecast method[J].Earthquake,24(2):53-58(in Chinese).
王晓青,张国民,傅征祥,等.2007.2006-2020年中国大陆强震危险区综合预测研究[A].见:2006-2020年中国大陆地震危险区与地震灾害损失预测研究.北京:地震出版社.219-226. WANG Xiao-qing,ZHANG Guo-min,FU Zheng-xiang,et al.2007.The study on the synthetic prediction of strong earthquake risk region for 2006-2020[A].In:Study on the earthquake hazard and losses prediction in China for 2006-2020.Seismological Press,Beijing.219-226(in Chinese).
许强,黄润秋.1996.用神经网络理论预测水库诱发地震[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,7(3):10-17. XU Qiang,HUANG Run-qiu.1996.The prediction of reservoir induced seismicity using artificial neural network[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,7(3):10-17(in Chinese).
许绍燮.1989.地震预报能力评分[A].见:国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用化文集:地震学专辑.北京:学术书刊出版社.586-590. XU Shao-xie.1989.The grading of efficiency of earthquake prediction[A].In:Department of Science,Technology and Monitoring,CSB(ed).Corpus of practical methods of earthquake prediction:A special collection of seismology. Academic Books Press,Beijing.586-590(in Chinese).
杨清源,胡毓良,陈献程,等.1996.国内外水库诱发地震目录[J].地震地质,18(4):454-461. YANG Qing-yuan,HU Yu-liang,CHEN Xian-cheng,et al.1996.Catalogue of reservoir induced seismic events in the world[J].Seismology and Geology,18(4):454-461(in Chinese).
张飞宇,王晓青,付虹,等.2009.水库地震最大震级预测初步研究[J].地震地质,3l(4):747-757. ZHANG Fei-Yu,WANG Xiao-Qing,FU Hong,et al.2009.A preliminary study on prediction for maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake[J].Seismology and Geology,31(4):747-757(in Chinese).
曾心传,高士钧.1989.水诱发地震应力场初步探讨[J].华南地震,9(1):73-85. ZENG Xin-chuan,GAO Shi-jun.1989.A preliminary study on the stress field of water induced-earthquake[J]. South China Seismological Journal,9(1):73-85(in Chinese).
Aki K.1981.A probabilistic synthesis of precursory phenomena[A].In:Simpson D W,Richards P G(eds).Earthquake prediction-an international review.A G U,Washington D C.566-574.
Aki K.1984.The use of physical model of fault mechanics for earthquake prediction[A].In:The Organizing Committee of ISCESP(ed).A Collection of Papers of International Symposium on Continental Seismicity and Earthquake Prediction.Seismological Press,Beijing.653-659.
Baecher B G,Keeney R L.1982.Statistical examination of reservoir induced seismicity[J].BSSA,72(2):553- 569.
Kagan Y,Knopoff L.1977.Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process[J].Phys Earth Planet Inter,14:97- 108.
Kenji M and Akio Yoshida.1990.A probabilistic estimation of earthquake occurrence on the basis of the appearance times of multiple precursory phenomena[J].J Phys Earth,38:431-444.
Packer D R,Cluff L S.1979.A study of reservoir induced seismicity[R].Woodward-Clyde Consultants,U.S.A,U S Geol Surv,Contract 14-08-0001-16809.
Utsu T.1979.Calculation of the probability of success of an earthquake prediction(in the case of Lzu-Oshima-Kinkai earthquake of 1978)[J].Rep Coord Comm Earthq Predict,21:164-166(in Japanese).
Utsu T.1977.Probabilities in earthquake prediction[J].Zisin Ser,30(2):179-185(in Japanese).
U tsu T.1983.Probabilities associated with earthquake prediction and their relationships[J].Earthq Predict Res,2: 105-144.
Vere-Jones D.1978.Earthquake prediction-a statistician view[J].J Phys Earth,26:129-146.
Wang Xiaoqing,Ding Xiang.2001.Research on synthesized spatial and temporal probability gain model and earthquake forecast[C].In:Collected Papers of the 3rd International Conference on Continental Earthquakes:Mechanism, Prediction,Emergency Management & Insurance,July,2004,Beijing.11-14.
[1]王晓青等,2003,基于强震时空概率增益综合预测模型的十年尺度地震危险性预测方法研究(见国家973项目”大陆强震机理研究”报告)。
常宝琦,梁纪彬.1987.水库“规模”与水库诱发地震震级的预测[J].华南地震,7(1):94-95. CHANG Bao-qi,LIANG Ji-bin.1987.Correlation between the“size”of reservoir and the magnitude of induced earthquake [J].South China Journal of Seismology,7(1):94-95(in Chinese).
常宝琦,梁纪彬.1992.水库诱发地震最大震级的预测[J].华南地震,12(1):74-79. CHANG Bao-qi,LIANG Ji-bin.1992.Prediction about the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake[J]. South China Journal of Seismology,12(1):74-79(in Chinese).
丁香,王晓青.2002.基于MapInfo的中长期地震预测动态系统[J].中国地震,18(1):86-95. DING Xiang,WANG Xiao-qing.2002.The dynamic medium-and long-term earthquake prediction system based on M apInfo[J].Earthquake Research in China,18(1):86-95(in Chinese).
国家地震局地震研究所.1984.中国诱发地震[M].北京:地震出版社.202. Seismological Institute of State Seismological Bureau.1984.Discussion on The Genesis of Reservoir-induced Earthquakes [M].Seismological Press,Beijing.202(in Chinese).
梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.1993.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社.498. MEI Shi-Rong,FENG De-yi,ZHANG Guo-min,et al.1993.Introduction to Earthquake Prediction in China[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.498(in Chinese).
毛玉平,余丰晏,李志祥,等.2008.对水库诱发地震研究的几点认识[J].地震研究,31(4):399-405. MAO Yu-ping,YU Feng-yan,LI Zhi-xiang,et al.2008.Understanding of reservoir-induced seismicity[J].Journal of Seismological Research,31(4):399-405(in Chinese).
王晓青,傅征祥,张立人,等.2000.中长期地震时空概率增益预测模型及其初步应用[J].地震学报,22(1): 45-53. WANG Xiao-qing,FU Zheng-xiang,ZHANG Li-ren,et al.2000.Model of spatial and temporal synthesized probability gains for middle and long-term earthquake forecast and its preliminary application[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica, 13(1):50-60.
王晓青.2000.R值用于地震预测效能评估中的问题与改进[J].中国地震,16(3):256-262. WANG Xiao-qing.2001.The problem and improvement of R-values applied to the assessment of earthquake forecast [J].Earthquake Research in China,16(3):256-262(in Chinese).
王晓青,吕金霞,丁香.2002.强震时-空综合概率增益模型与中长期预测方法效能研究[J].中国地震,18(4): 346-355. WANG Xiao-qing,L(U|¨) Jin-xia,DING Xiang.2002.The spatial-temporal synthetical probability gain model and the study of efficiency of medium-and long-term earthquake prediction methods[J].Earthquake Research in China, 18(4):346-355(in Chinese).
王晓青,邵辉成,丁香.2004.地震预测模型优化方法研究[J].地震,24(2):53-58. WANG Xiao-qing,SHAO Hui-cheng,DING Xiang.2004.Study on efficiency evaluation and optimization of earthquake forecast method[J].Earthquake,24(2):53-58(in Chinese).
王晓青,张国民,傅征祥,等.2007.2006-2020年中国大陆强震危险区综合预测研究[A].见:2006-2020年中国大陆地震危险区与地震灾害损失预测研究.北京:地震出版社.219-226. WANG Xiao-qing,ZHANG Guo-min,FU Zheng-xiang,et al.2007.The study on the synthetic prediction of strong earthquake risk region for 2006-2020[A].In:Study on the earthquake hazard and losses prediction in China for 2006-2020.Seismological Press,Beijing.219-226(in Chinese).
许强,黄润秋.1996.用神经网络理论预测水库诱发地震[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,7(3):10-17. XU Qiang,HUANG Run-qiu.1996.The prediction of reservoir induced seismicity using artificial neural network[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,7(3):10-17(in Chinese).
许绍燮.1989.地震预报能力评分[A].见:国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用化文集:地震学专辑.北京:学术书刊出版社.586-590. XU Shao-xie.1989.The grading of efficiency of earthquake prediction[A].In:Department of Science,Technology and Monitoring,CSB(ed).Corpus of practical methods of earthquake prediction:A special collection of seismology. Academic Books Press,Beijing.586-590(in Chinese).
杨清源,胡毓良,陈献程,等.1996.国内外水库诱发地震目录[J].地震地质,18(4):454-461. YANG Qing-yuan,HU Yu-liang,CHEN Xian-cheng,et al.1996.Catalogue of reservoir induced seismic events in the world[J].Seismology and Geology,18(4):454-461(in Chinese).
张飞宇,王晓青,付虹,等.2009.水库地震最大震级预测初步研究[J].地震地质,3l(4):747-757. ZHANG Fei-Yu,WANG Xiao-Qing,FU Hong,et al.2009.A preliminary study on prediction for maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake[J].Seismology and Geology,31(4):747-757(in Chinese).
曾心传,高士钧.1989.水诱发地震应力场初步探讨[J].华南地震,9(1):73-85. ZENG Xin-chuan,GAO Shi-jun.1989.A preliminary study on the stress field of water induced-earthquake[J]. South China Seismological Journal,9(1):73-85(in Chinese).
Aki K.1981.A probabilistic synthesis of precursory phenomena[A].In:Simpson D W,Richards P G(eds).Earthquake prediction-an international review.A G U,Washington D C.566-574.
Aki K.1984.The use of physical model of fault mechanics for earthquake prediction[A].In:The Organizing Committee of ISCESP(ed).A Collection of Papers of International Symposium on Continental Seismicity and Earthquake Prediction.Seismological Press,Beijing.653-659.
Baecher B G,Keeney R L.1982.Statistical examination of reservoir induced seismicity[J].BSSA,72(2):553- 569.
Kagan Y,Knopoff L.1977.Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process[J].Phys Earth Planet Inter,14:97- 108.
Kenji M and Akio Yoshida.1990.A probabilistic estimation of earthquake occurrence on the basis of the appearance times of multiple precursory phenomena[J].J Phys Earth,38:431-444.
Packer D R,Cluff L S.1979.A study of reservoir induced seismicity[R].Woodward-Clyde Consultants,U.S.A,U S Geol Surv,Contract 14-08-0001-16809.
Utsu T.1979.Calculation of the probability of success of an earthquake prediction(in the case of Lzu-Oshima-Kinkai earthquake of 1978)[J].Rep Coord Comm Earthq Predict,21:164-166(in Japanese).
Utsu T.1977.Probabilities in earthquake prediction[J].Zisin Ser,30(2):179-185(in Japanese).
U tsu T.1983.Probabilities associated with earthquake prediction and their relationships[J].Earthq Predict Res,2: 105-144.
Vere-Jones D.1978.Earthquake prediction-a statistician view[J].J Phys Earth,26:129-146.
Wang Xiaoqing,Ding Xiang.2001.Research on synthesized spatial and temporal probability gain model and earthquake forecast[C].In:Collected Papers of the 3rd International Conference on Continental Earthquakes:Mechanism, Prediction,Emergency Management & Insurance,July,2004,Beijing.11-14.
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