甘肃南部武都地区泥石流危险性评价
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摘要
泥石流的发生受控于多种因子,而各因子属性段对泥石流的发生起到不同的作用。以甘肃南部武都地区为研究区,考虑到地震扰动影响并结合当地的地质环境条件,选取了高程、坡度、岩性、土地利用类型、滑坡点密度、地震因子、地质构造缓冲区及归一化植被指数(NDVI)等8个评价因子进行危险性评价。而后基于信息量模型和敏感性分析法对各影响因子属性类进行计算分析,得到各属性类的量化值。最后通过叠置分析,得到泥石流灾害危险性分区。结果表明,在中度、高度及极高度危险区内,信息量模型中分布的泥石流面积占研究区泥石流总面积的百分比为22.5%,24.7%,37.2%,而敏感性模型中占到的比例分别为25.5%,28.1%和36.4%。敏感性模型中中度危险区以上包含的泥石流比例占到90%,大于信息量模型的84.4%,因此,采用敏感性模型得到的危险性分区结果具有更高的精确性,能够为实际应用提供参考依据。
The debris flow hazard is controlled by a lot of factors,while each aspect of the factors has different effect on the occurrence of the debris flow.In this paper,the Wudu district is introduced to be studied.And taking into account the effects of seismic disturbances combined with the local geological environment conditions,we ultimately select elevation,slope,lithology,land use,landslides density,seismic,cumulative distance from fault interface and normalized NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index) for debris flow hazards assessment.Then,the information method and sensitivity analysis method are applied to calculate all aspects of the factors.And at last,the debris flow hazards zoning map was got by overlay analysis.The results show that in moderate danger zone,highly danger zone and extremely highly dangerous zone,the debris flow area accounts for 22.5%,24.7% and 37.2% of the total debris flow area respectively by information method and accounts for 25.5%,28.1% and 36.4% by sensitivity analysis method.All in all,above moderate danger zone contains 90% of the debris flow by sensitivity method which large than the 84.4% of the information method.Thus it can be seen,sensitivity analysis method combined with GIS technology for the debris flow hazards assessment has higher accuracy and it can be a reference to the practical application in the future.
The debris flow hazard is controlled by a lot of factors,while each aspect of the factors has different effect on the occurrence of the debris flow.In this paper,the Wudu district is introduced to be studied.And taking into account the effects of seismic disturbances combined with the local geological environment conditions,we ultimately select elevation,slope,lithology,land use,landslides density,seismic,cumulative distance from fault interface and normalized NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index) for debris flow hazards assessment.Then,the information method and sensitivity analysis method are applied to calculate all aspects of the factors.And at last,the debris flow hazards zoning map was got by overlay analysis.The results show that in moderate danger zone,highly danger zone and extremely highly dangerous zone,the debris flow area accounts for 22.5%,24.7% and 37.2% of the total debris flow area respectively by information method and accounts for 25.5%,28.1% and 36.4% by sensitivity analysis method.All in all,above moderate danger zone contains 90% of the debris flow by sensitivity method which large than the 84.4% of the information method.Thus it can be seen,sensitivity analysis method combined with GIS technology for the debris flow hazards assessment has higher accuracy and it can be a reference to the practical application in the future.
引文
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[17]Cui Ruiping.The research about bailongjiang midstetream area?smud-rock flow and landslide prevention system and effediveness[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2006.[崔瑞萍.白龙江中游滑坡泥石流防治体系与效益的研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2006.]
[18]Cheng Hongfang,Zhang Wenbo,Chen Feng.Advances in researcheson application of remote sensing method to estimating vegetation cov-erage[J].Remote Sensing for Land and Resources,2008,(1):13-18[程红芳,章文波,陈锋.植被覆盖度的遥感估算方法研究[J].国土资源遥感,2008,(1):13-18]
[19]Chen Liang,Meng Gaotou,Zhang Wenjie,et al.Application of in-formation model on geological hazards investigating and zoning ofcounties and cities:As an example of Xianju County,Zhejiang Prov-ince[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2003,(5):49-52[陈亮,孟高头,张文杰,等.信息量模型在县市地质灾害调查与区划中的应用研究——以浙江仙居县为例[J].水文地质工程地质,2003,(5):49-52]
[20]Zou Qiang,Cui Peng,Zhang Jianqiang,etal.Quantitative evaluationfor susceptibility of debris flow in upper Yangtze River basin[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2012,35(3):159-163[邹强,崔鹏,张建强,等.长江上游地区泥石流灾害敏感性量化评价研究[J].环境科学与技术,2012,35(3):159-163]
[2]Merio M,wohl E E.Geological hazard and risk evaluation using GIS:methodology and model applied to Medel in Clombia[J].Bulletin ofthe Association of Engineering Geologists,1994,31(4):459-481
[3]Guzzetti F.Landslide fatalities and the evaluation of landslide risk inItaly[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58:89-107
[4]Carrara A M,Cardinali R D.GIS techniques and statistical models inevaluating landslide hazard[J].Earth Surface Process and Land-forms,2001,16(5):427-445
[5]Ruan Shenyong,Huang Runqiu.Application of GIS-based informa-tion model on assessment of geological hazards risk[J].Journal ofChengdu University of Technology,2001,29(1):89-92[阮沈勇,黄润秋.基于GIS的信息量法模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J].成都理工学报学报,2001,29(1):89-92]
[6]Gao Kechang,Cui Peng,Zhao Chunyong,et al.Landslide hazard e-valuation of Wanzhou based on GIS information value method in theThree Gorges Reservoir[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics andEngineering,2006,25(5):991-996[高克昌,崔鹏,赵纯勇,等.基于地理信息系统和信息量模型的滑坡危险性评价——以重庆万州为例[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2006,25(5):991-996]
[7]Meng Fanqi,Li Guangjie,Qin Shengwu,et al.Zoning of debris flowhazard degree with weight-of-evidence method[J].Journal of JilinUniversity:Earth Science Edition,2010,40(6):1380-1384[孟凡奇,李广杰,秦胜伍,等.基于证据权法的泥石流危险度区划[J].吉林大学学报:地球科学版,2010,40(6):1380-1384]
[8]Luo Zhenfu,Pu Dacheng,Xie Hongbin,et al.Landslide hazard eval-uation in debris flow catchment area based on GIS and informationmethod[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(11):144-150[罗真富,蒲达成,谢洪斌,等.基于GIS和信息量法的泥石流流域滑坡危险性评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(11):144-150]
[9]Liu Jinfeng,Huang Jiangcheng,Ou Guoqiang,et al.Susceptibility e-valuation of debris flow in the Wudu district,Longnan city,Gansuprovience[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Con-trol,2010,21(4):8-13[柳金峰,黄江成,欧国强,等.甘肃陇南武都区泥石流易发性评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2010,21(4):8-13]
[10]Van Westen C J,Castellanos Abella E A,Kuriakose S L.Spatial da-ta for landslide susceptibility,hazard and vulnerability assessment:An overview[J].Engineering Geology,2008,102:112-131
[11]Zhu Jing,Tang Chuan.A study on the risk regionalization of debrisflow hazards in Yunnan[J].The Chinese Journal of GeologicalHazard and Control,1996,7(2):86-93[朱静,唐川.云南省泥石流灾害危险度分区研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1996,7(2):86-93]
[12]Liu Xilin,Zhang Songlin,Tang Chuan.Evaluation of the risk degreeof debris flow in ravine[J].Journal of Soiland Water Conservation,1993,7(3):20-25[刘希林,张松林,唐川.沟谷泥石流危险度评价研究[J].水土保持学报,1993,7(3):20-25]
[13]Guo Jifa,Cui Tiejun,Cui Weihong.Multi-scale regional debrisflow hazard assessment on fitting scale interval[J].Journal of JilinUniversity:Earth Science Edition,2012,42(1):150-160[郭继发,崔铁军,崔伟宏.适宜尺度区间上的多尺度区域泥石流危险性评价[J].吉林大学学报:地球科学版,2012,42(1):150-160]
[14]Han jinhua.Study on GIS-based risk assessment on debris flows ofBailong Basin[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2010.[韩金华.基于GIS的白龙江流域泥石流危险性评价研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2010.]
[15]Jiao Jinyu.Research on hazard assessment of debris flows in Mincounty Gansu province[D].Lan zhou:Northwest Normal Universi-ty,2009.[焦金鱼.甘肃岷县泥石流危险性评价研究[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2009.]
[16]Niu Quanfu,Cheng Weiming,Lan Hengxing,et al.Susceptibility as-sessment of secondary geological disaster based on information valuemethodology for Yushu earthquake region[J].Journal of MountanScience,2011,29(2):243-249[牛全福,程维明,兰恒星,等.基于信息量模型的玉树地震次生地质灾害危险性评价[J].山地学报,2011,29(2):243-249]
[17]Cui Ruiping.The research about bailongjiang midstetream area?smud-rock flow and landslide prevention system and effediveness[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2006.[崔瑞萍.白龙江中游滑坡泥石流防治体系与效益的研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2006.]
[18]Cheng Hongfang,Zhang Wenbo,Chen Feng.Advances in researcheson application of remote sensing method to estimating vegetation cov-erage[J].Remote Sensing for Land and Resources,2008,(1):13-18[程红芳,章文波,陈锋.植被覆盖度的遥感估算方法研究[J].国土资源遥感,2008,(1):13-18]
[19]Chen Liang,Meng Gaotou,Zhang Wenjie,et al.Application of in-formation model on geological hazards investigating and zoning ofcounties and cities:As an example of Xianju County,Zhejiang Prov-ince[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2003,(5):49-52[陈亮,孟高头,张文杰,等.信息量模型在县市地质灾害调查与区划中的应用研究——以浙江仙居县为例[J].水文地质工程地质,2003,(5):49-52]
[20]Zou Qiang,Cui Peng,Zhang Jianqiang,etal.Quantitative evaluationfor susceptibility of debris flow in upper Yangtze River basin[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2012,35(3):159-163[邹强,崔鹏,张建强,等.长江上游地区泥石流灾害敏感性量化评价研究[J].环境科学与技术,2012,35(3):159-163]
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