地壳形变与强震地点预测问题与认识
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摘要
通过对昆仑山口西8.1级地震和汶川8.0级地震震前GPS资料所反映的孕震特征的分析,对地壳形变资料应用于孕震机理和地震预测研究中在最近几十年的主要进展进行了回顾分析,并对比了中外学者针对上述问题科学思路的异同。在此基础上,对走滑型和倾滑型地震断层带区域孕震形变场特征进行分析,强调孕震过程地壳形变的认识模式需要从孕震断层拓展到区域甚至更大区域,并需从多尺度地壳形变时空过程来认识强震孕震形变动态特征,进而获取强震预测判据。
Based on the analysis of the preparation characteristics of the Kunlun 8.1 earthquake and the Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake revealed from GPS data,we review the main research developments of earthquake mechanism and forecast using crustal deformation data in the past decades,and discuss the similarities and differences of scientific approachs between Chinese and foreign scholars.Deformation characteristics of earthquake preparation associated with slip faults and dip-slip faults are analyzed.It is emphasized that,in order to understand the model of relationship between the crustal deformation and earthquake preparation,we should expand the attentions from fault scale to regional scale,and recognize the dynamic deformation characteristics associated with earthquake preparation in multi-scale,spatial-temporal process,and so to obtain the criteria of strong earthquake forecast.
Based on the analysis of the preparation characteristics of the Kunlun 8.1 earthquake and the Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake revealed from GPS data,we review the main research developments of earthquake mechanism and forecast using crustal deformation data in the past decades,and discuss the similarities and differences of scientific approachs between Chinese and foreign scholars.Deformation characteristics of earthquake preparation associated with slip faults and dip-slip faults are analyzed.It is emphasized that,in order to understand the model of relationship between the crustal deformation and earthquake preparation,we should expand the attentions from fault scale to regional scale,and recognize the dynamic deformation characteristics associated with earthquake preparation in multi-scale,spatial-temporal process,and so to obtain the criteria of strong earthquake forecast.
引文
①江在森等,国家科技支撑计划“强震动力动态图像预测技术研究”课题研究报告,2010年。
[1]马宗晋,陈鑫连,叶叔华,等.中国大陆现今地壳运动的GPS研究[J].科学通报,2001,46(13):1118-1120.
[2]江在森,马宗晋,张希,等.GPS初步结果揭示的中国大陆水平应变场与构造变形[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(3):352-358.
[3]江在森,杨国华,王敏,等.中国大陆地壳运动与强震关系研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(3):1-9.
[4]江在森,张希,祝意青,等.昆仑山口西M S 8.1地震前区域构造变形背景[J].中国科学,D缉2003,33(B04):163-172.
[5]江在森,方颖,武艳强,等.汶川8.0级地震前区域地壳运动与变形动态过程[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):505-518.
[6]江在森,杨立明,陈虹,等.强地震中期预测新技术物理基础及其应用研究[J].北京:地震出版社,2008.
[7]Reid H F.The Mechanics of the Earthquake,The California Earthquake of April18,1906,Report of the State Investigation Commission,Vol.2,Carnegie Institution of Washington,Washington,D.C.1910(see especially pages16-28).
[8]Scholz C H.Earthquakes and friction laws[J].Nature,1998,391:721-732.
[9]Savage J C,Burford R O.Geodetic determination of relative plate motion in central California[J].Geophys Res,1973,78:832-845.
[10]Savage J C,Prescott W H.Precision of Geodolit distance measurements for determining fault move-ments[J].J Geophys Res,1973,78:6001-6008.
[11][日]力武常次著.地震预报[M].冯锐,周新华译.北京:地震出版社,1978.
[12]周硕愚.地震预报的性质是什么?[J].地震学刊,1993,(1):39-43.
[13]大地形变学科地震预报实用化攻关学术领导小组.大地形变学科地震分析预报实用化工作指南及软件[J].震情研究,1989.(1):11-25.
[14]张祖胜,杨国华.地壳垂直形变速率梯度,断层形变速率变化与强震危险区研究[J].中国地震,1996,12(4):347-357.
[15]江在森,丁平,王双绪,等.中国西部大地形变监测与地震预测[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
[16]周硕愚.板内地壳形变系统动力学与地震预报[J].地壳形变与地震,1990,10(4):1-7.
[17]车兆宏,张艳梅.南北地震带中南段断层现今活动[J].地震,2001,21(3):31-38.
[18]江在森,祝意青,王庆良,等.永登5.8级地震孕育发生过程中的断层形变与重力场动态图象特征[J].地震学报,1998,20(3):264-271.
[19]王双绪,江在森.景泰5.9级地震的断层形变异常及中短期预报[J].地震学报,2001,23(2):151-158.
[20]杨国华,桂昆长.板内强震蕴震过程中地形变图象及模式的研究[J].地震学报,1995,17(2):156-163.
[21]江在森,王双绪,赵振才.南北地震带和青藏块体东部近期大地形变与地震特征[J].中国地震,1997,13(2):139-150.
[22]张国民,石耀霖.构造块体的成组孕震模型和前兆场某些特征的分析[J].地震学报,1995,17(1):1-10.
[23]张国民,石耀霖.地壳应变速率与地震活动关系的研究:从地壳应变场探索强震活动的场源关系[J].中国地震,1999,15(1):1-13.
[24]周硕愚,梅世蓉,施顺英.对可重现性地震前兆的研究[A].姚家榴(编).中国地震学会第6届学术年会论文[C].北京:地震出版社,2000.83.
[25]李延兴,赵承坤.华北地区GPS监测网建设,地壳水平运动与应力场及地震活动性的关系[J].中国地震,1998,14(2):115-125.
[26]杨国华.GPS用于区域地壳运动及地点危险区判定的初步研究[J].中国地震,1998,14(1):40-46.
[27]陈光齐,武艳强,江在森,等.GPS资料反映的日本东北M W 9.0地震的孕震特征[J].地球物理学报,2012(待刊).
[1]马宗晋,陈鑫连,叶叔华,等.中国大陆现今地壳运动的GPS研究[J].科学通报,2001,46(13):1118-1120.
[2]江在森,马宗晋,张希,等.GPS初步结果揭示的中国大陆水平应变场与构造变形[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(3):352-358.
[3]江在森,杨国华,王敏,等.中国大陆地壳运动与强震关系研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(3):1-9.
[4]江在森,张希,祝意青,等.昆仑山口西M S 8.1地震前区域构造变形背景[J].中国科学,D缉2003,33(B04):163-172.
[5]江在森,方颖,武艳强,等.汶川8.0级地震前区域地壳运动与变形动态过程[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):505-518.
[6]江在森,杨立明,陈虹,等.强地震中期预测新技术物理基础及其应用研究[J].北京:地震出版社,2008.
[7]Reid H F.The Mechanics of the Earthquake,The California Earthquake of April18,1906,Report of the State Investigation Commission,Vol.2,Carnegie Institution of Washington,Washington,D.C.1910(see especially pages16-28).
[8]Scholz C H.Earthquakes and friction laws[J].Nature,1998,391:721-732.
[9]Savage J C,Burford R O.Geodetic determination of relative plate motion in central California[J].Geophys Res,1973,78:832-845.
[10]Savage J C,Prescott W H.Precision of Geodolit distance measurements for determining fault move-ments[J].J Geophys Res,1973,78:6001-6008.
[11][日]力武常次著.地震预报[M].冯锐,周新华译.北京:地震出版社,1978.
[12]周硕愚.地震预报的性质是什么?[J].地震学刊,1993,(1):39-43.
[13]大地形变学科地震预报实用化攻关学术领导小组.大地形变学科地震分析预报实用化工作指南及软件[J].震情研究,1989.(1):11-25.
[14]张祖胜,杨国华.地壳垂直形变速率梯度,断层形变速率变化与强震危险区研究[J].中国地震,1996,12(4):347-357.
[15]江在森,丁平,王双绪,等.中国西部大地形变监测与地震预测[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
[16]周硕愚.板内地壳形变系统动力学与地震预报[J].地壳形变与地震,1990,10(4):1-7.
[17]车兆宏,张艳梅.南北地震带中南段断层现今活动[J].地震,2001,21(3):31-38.
[18]江在森,祝意青,王庆良,等.永登5.8级地震孕育发生过程中的断层形变与重力场动态图象特征[J].地震学报,1998,20(3):264-271.
[19]王双绪,江在森.景泰5.9级地震的断层形变异常及中短期预报[J].地震学报,2001,23(2):151-158.
[20]杨国华,桂昆长.板内强震蕴震过程中地形变图象及模式的研究[J].地震学报,1995,17(2):156-163.
[21]江在森,王双绪,赵振才.南北地震带和青藏块体东部近期大地形变与地震特征[J].中国地震,1997,13(2):139-150.
[22]张国民,石耀霖.构造块体的成组孕震模型和前兆场某些特征的分析[J].地震学报,1995,17(1):1-10.
[23]张国民,石耀霖.地壳应变速率与地震活动关系的研究:从地壳应变场探索强震活动的场源关系[J].中国地震,1999,15(1):1-13.
[24]周硕愚,梅世蓉,施顺英.对可重现性地震前兆的研究[A].姚家榴(编).中国地震学会第6届学术年会论文[C].北京:地震出版社,2000.83.
[25]李延兴,赵承坤.华北地区GPS监测网建设,地壳水平运动与应力场及地震活动性的关系[J].中国地震,1998,14(2):115-125.
[26]杨国华.GPS用于区域地壳运动及地点危险区判定的初步研究[J].中国地震,1998,14(1):40-46.
[27]陈光齐,武艳强,江在森,等.GPS资料反映的日本东北M W 9.0地震的孕震特征[J].地球物理学报,2012(待刊).
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