河北地区空间分布函数的地质因子和中长期预报因子的计算
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摘要
利用华北平原地震带潜在震源区和河北省活动断裂资料,采用地质资料的定量化方法和中长期预报的震级-时间模型计算每个潜在震源区的地质因子和中长期预报因子。地质因子计算结果为:(1)地质因子最高的地区出现在唐山、北京、邢台、邯郸;(2)3类地区(全新世断裂活动、晚更新世断裂活动和无全新世或晚更新世断裂活动)的地质因子比值约为12∶4∶1。中长期预报因子采用邵辉成等人的研究成果,考虑历史地震和现代地震资料等不同精度的地震矩年变化率,其结果能代表长期的平均值,避免了使用部分平静期或活跃期的资料而掩盖长期地震活动的真实情况,从而减少结果的不确定性。
Based on the data of latent focal region in North China seismic belt and active faults in Hebei Province,the geological factor and mid-and long-term forecast factor were determined by using the quantity method of geological data and magnitude-time model of mid-and long term prediction.The geological factor show(1)the highest values in Tangshan,Beijing,Xingtai and Handan;(2)the ratio of geological factor in three types region(Holocene,late Pleistocene and no Holocene or late Pleistocene fault activity) is about 12:4:1.The mid-and long-term forecast factor use the result of Shao Huicheng et al,considering the historical earthquakes and modern seismic data,the annual change rate of seismic moment can represent the long-term average,which can avoid the situation of obscure the real long-term seismicity by using the data of inactive or active period and reduce the the uncertainty of the results.
Based on the data of latent focal region in North China seismic belt and active faults in Hebei Province,the geological factor and mid-and long-term forecast factor were determined by using the quantity method of geological data and magnitude-time model of mid-and long term prediction.The geological factor show(1)the highest values in Tangshan,Beijing,Xingtai and Handan;(2)the ratio of geological factor in three types region(Holocene,late Pleistocene and no Holocene or late Pleistocene fault activity) is about 12:4:1.The mid-and long-term forecast factor use the result of Shao Huicheng et al,considering the historical earthquakes and modern seismic data,the annual change rate of seismic moment can represent the long-term average,which can avoid the situation of obscure the real long-term seismicity by using the data of inactive or active period and reduce the the uncertainty of the results.
引文
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[11]邵辉成,谢家树,王平,等.地震资料精度和完整性对地震危险性参数的影响[J].地震学报,1996,18(4):494-501.
[12]Papazachos B.C.and CH.A Papaioannou.Long-term Earthquake Prediction in the Aegean Area Based on a Time and Magnitude Pre-dictable Model[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1993,140(4):593-612.
[13]Nishenko S P,Buland R T.A Generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,1987,79:1382-1399.
[14]Papazachos B.C.and CH.A Papaioannou.Long-term Earthquake Prediction in the Aegean Area Based on a Time and Magnitude Pre-dictable Model[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1993,140(4):593-612.
[15]Davis P M,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y.The longer it has been since the last earthquake、The longer the expected time till the next?[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer.,1989,79:1439-1489.
[2]傅征祥,粟生平,王晓青.地震发生非稳态泊松过程和中长期概率预测研究[J].地震,1998,18(2):105-111.
[3]傅征祥,姜立新.汾渭带和华北平原带强震活动的群集特征[J].中国地震,1994,10(2):160-167.
[4]张国民,傅征祥.华北强震的时间分布及物理解释.地球物理学报[J].1985,28(06):569-578.
[5]庄建仓,马丽.应力释放模型及其对中国几个地震区活动特征的模拟结果[J].地震学报,1998,20(1):48-59.
[6]邵辉成,金学申.区域时间和震级可预报模型在华北及西南地区的应用[J].地震学报,1999,21(3):291-296.
[7]Molnar P.Earthquake recurrence intervals and plate tectonics[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1979,69(1):115-133.
[8]Papazachos B.C.,G.F.Karakaisis,and E.E.Papadimitriou,et al.The Regional time and magnitude Predictable Model and its Appli-cation to the Alpine-Himalayan Belt[J].Tectonphysics,1997a,271:295-323.
[9]Papazachos B.C.,E.E.Papadimitriou and G.F.Karakaisis,et al.Long-term Earthquake Prediction in the Circum-Pacific ConvergentBelt[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1997b,149:173-217.
[10]Papazachos B.C.and E.E.Papadimitriou.Evaluation of the Global Applicability of the Regional Time-and Magnitude-PredictableSeismicty Model[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1997c,87(4):799-808.
[11]邵辉成,谢家树,王平,等.地震资料精度和完整性对地震危险性参数的影响[J].地震学报,1996,18(4):494-501.
[12]Papazachos B.C.and CH.A Papaioannou.Long-term Earthquake Prediction in the Aegean Area Based on a Time and Magnitude Pre-dictable Model[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1993,140(4):593-612.
[13]Nishenko S P,Buland R T.A Generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,1987,79:1382-1399.
[14]Papazachos B.C.and CH.A Papaioannou.Long-term Earthquake Prediction in the Aegean Area Based on a Time and Magnitude Pre-dictable Model[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1993,140(4):593-612.
[15]Davis P M,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y.The longer it has been since the last earthquake、The longer the expected time till the next?[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer.,1989,79:1439-1489.
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