矿山微地震活动特征的概率分析方法研究
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摘要
为了研究矿山微地震活动的随机特征,提出了用于描述矿山微地震活动随机特征的三个统计量:微地震能量分布率、微地震发生率和微地震空间分布率,基于概率论和数理统计原理,研究了三个统计量的概率计算方法。通过对某矿山微地震实际数据的计算发现:该矿区微地震能量分布率的概率密度曲线类似于正态分布;微地震发生率的概率密度曲线类似于泊松分布;微地震空间分布率的概率密度曲线虽然呈现多种形式,但微地震事件大部分在固定工作面前方、工作面两侧边缘和煤层顶底板位置处,反映了在岩体特性突变位置处,发生微地震的概率较大。因此利用这三个统计量及其概率密度分布特征,可以从时间-空间-能量的角度,描述矿山微地震活动特征,对矿山微地震监测技术的基础研究和应用具有一定的意义。
To characterize the stochastic features of microseismic activities in coal mining,three statistical variables,including distribution rate of microseismic energy,occurrence rate of microseismic events,and spatial distribution of events,were proposed in this paper.In addition,the methods to analyze probabilities of these variables were also established based on the probability theory and mathematical statistical principle.The calculation results of the field microseismic data in one mine show thatthe probability density of microseismic energy presents the normal distribution;,the probability density of microseismic occurrence is similar to Poso distribution,while the probability density of microseismic spatial distribution presents multi-patterns.Meanwhile,although no certain patter is revealed from the spatial distribution,most microseismic events are occurred in the front and two sides of the working face,as well as the top and bottom of the coal seam,which means the occurrence probability of microseismic events is higher in the mutation location of rock mass characteristics.The field application proves that these three statistical variables and the corresponding probability density distributions can be well used to characterize the microseismic activities in time,spatial and energy,which may significantly improve the fundamental research in microseismic monitoring and its application in coal mining.
To characterize the stochastic features of microseismic activities in coal mining,three statistical variables,including distribution rate of microseismic energy,occurrence rate of microseismic events,and spatial distribution of events,were proposed in this paper.In addition,the methods to analyze probabilities of these variables were also established based on the probability theory and mathematical statistical principle.The calculation results of the field microseismic data in one mine show thatthe probability density of microseismic energy presents the normal distribution;,the probability density of microseismic occurrence is similar to Poso distribution,while the probability density of microseismic spatial distribution presents multi-patterns.Meanwhile,although no certain patter is revealed from the spatial distribution,most microseismic events are occurred in the front and two sides of the working face,as well as the top and bottom of the coal seam,which means the occurrence probability of microseismic events is higher in the mutation location of rock mass characteristics.The field application proves that these three statistical variables and the corresponding probability density distributions can be well used to characterize the microseismic activities in time,spatial and energy,which may significantly improve the fundamental research in microseismic monitoring and its application in coal mining.
引文
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[4]张山,刘清林,赵群,等.微地震监测技术在油田开发中的应用[J].石油物探,2002,41(2):226-231.ZHANG Shan,LIU Qing-lin,ZHAO Qun,et al.Application of micro-seismic monitoring technology indevelopment of oil field[J].Geophysical Prospecting forPetroleum,2002,41(2):226-231.
[5]逄焕东,姜福兴,张兴民.微地震监测技术在矿井灾害防治中的应用[J].金属矿山,2004,342(12):58-61.PANG Huan-dong,JIANG Fu-xing,ZHANG Xing-min.Application of micro-seismic monitoring method in dis-aster prevention of underground mine[J].Metal Mine,2004,342(12):58-61.
[6]裴琳.微地震监测技术在地下工程中应用研究[J].工程地球物理学报,2008,5(5):554-559.PEI Lin.Investigation of micro-earthquake monitoringtechnology’s application in subsurface engineering[J].Chinese Journal of Engineering Geophysics,2008,5(5):554-559.
[7]刘珺,刘亚.微地震技术在银行金库监控系统中的应用研究[J].微型机与应用,2011(1):77-79.LIU Jun,LIU Ya.Application of the micro-seismicmonitoring technology in the monitoring and control sys-tem of the bank[J].Microcomputer&its applications,2011(1):77-79.
[8]谢和平.岩爆的分形特征和机理[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1993,12(1):28-37.XIE He-ping.Fractal character and mechanism of rockbursts[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and En-gineering,1993,12(1):28-37.
[9]李智敏,苟先太,金炜东,等.微地震信号的分形特征[J].信号处理,2007,23(4):96-98.LI Zhi-min,GOU Xian-tai,JIN Wei-dong,et al.Fractalfeatures of microseismic[J].Signal Processing,2007,23(4):96-98.
[10]袁子清.矿震地震活动响应规律及其危险性预测研究[D].长沙:中南大学资源与安全工程学院,2007.
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