应用遥感构造解析方法分析汶川和玉树地震的构造活动过程——试作区域性地震活动预测分析
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摘要
每次地震都是一次岩石圈表层的构造变形与位移,一组时空相近而有成生联系的地震,代表着某种方式与方向的地壳运动,即每次地震均可视为一次"地震—构造事件"。应用遥感构造解析方法,将地震视为"地震—构造事件",对中国近20年来的地震活动进行分析和危险区评估,结果比较合乎实际。据此,对未来5～10年中国东部地区的地震活动趋势进行了预测,认为:两广及其沿海地带和华北平原中部存在发生强破坏性地震的较大风险。
The earthquake is an deformation and displace of enveloping rock in crust.A succession earthquake in the same belt represents some diastrophism(crustal movement).viz.an earthquake is a "Seismic-Structural Event".The dangerous of seismic area in China for the past 20 years were predicted tentatively on the basis of "Seismic-Structural Event" analysis by using remote sensing.The dangerous of seismic area in eastern china for coming 5-10 years are forecasted in this paper through iterative verification.A violent earthquake probably occurs in littoral areas of Guangdong-Guangxi and the middle part of north China plain area.
The earthquake is an deformation and displace of enveloping rock in crust.A succession earthquake in the same belt represents some diastrophism(crustal movement).viz.an earthquake is a "Seismic-Structural Event".The dangerous of seismic area in China for the past 20 years were predicted tentatively on the basis of "Seismic-Structural Event" analysis by using remote sensing.The dangerous of seismic area in eastern china for coming 5-10 years are forecasted in this paper through iterative verification.A violent earthquake probably occurs in littoral areas of Guangdong-Guangxi and the middle part of north China plain area.
引文
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①有关地震的信息来自中国地震信息网(http://www.csi.ac.cn)和中国地震网专业地震信息网(http://www.ceic.ac.cn),地震发生日期为世界协调时。
①有关地震的信息来自中国地震信息网(http://www.csi.ac.cn)和中国地震网专业地震信息网(http://www.ceic.ac.cn),地震发生日期为世界协调时。
①李述靖,刘刚.念青唐古拉走滑断裂带与藏东平行双剪切—推覆构造系统的遥感构造解析.第十七届中国遥感大会学术论文,2010。
①有关地震的信息来自中国地震信息网(http://www.csi.ac.cn)和中国地震网专业地震信息网(http://www.ceic.ac.cn),地震发生日期为世界协调时。
[2]吴珍汉,张作辰.四川汶川MS 8.0地震的地表变形与同震位移[J].地质通报,2008,27(12):2067～2075.WU Zhen-han,ZHANG Zuo-chen.Seismic deformation and co-seismic displacement of the MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake inSichuan,China[J].Geological Bulletin of China,2008,27(12):2067～2075.
[3]徐锡伟,闻学泽,叶建青,等.汶川MS 8.0地震地表破裂带及其发震构造[J].地震地质,2008,30(3):597～629.XU Xi-wei,WEN Xue-ze,YE Jian-qing,et al.The MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake surface ruptures and its seismogenicstructure[J].Seismology and Geology,2008,30(3):597～629.
[4]李海兵,王宗秀,付小方,等.2008年5月12日汶川地震(MS 8.0)地表破裂带的分布特征[J].中国地质,2008,35(5):803～813.LI Hai-bing,WANG Zong-xiu,FU Xiao-fang,et al.The surface rupture zone distribution of the Wenchuan earthquake(MS8.0)happened on May 12th,2008[J].Geology in China,2008,35(5):803～813.
[5]李海兵,付小方,Jér(o)me VANDER WOERD,等.汶川地震(MS 8.0)地表破裂及其同震右旋斜向逆冲作用[J].地质学报,2008,82(12):1623～1643.LI Hai-bing,FU Xiao-fang,Jér(o)me VAN DER WOERD,et al.Co-seisimic surface rupture and dextral-slip obliquethrusting of the MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,2008,82(12):1623～1643.
[6]李延兴,张静华,周伟,等.汶川MS 8.0地震孕育发生的机制与动力学问题[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):519～530.LI Yan-xing,ZHANG Jing-hua,ZHOU Wei,et al.The mechanism and dynamics of the generation and occurrence forWenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2009,52(2):519～530.
[7]张勇,冯万鹏,许力生,等.2008年汶川大地震的时空破裂过程[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2008,38(10):1186～1194.ZHANG Yong,FENG Wan-peng,XU Li-sheng,et al.Spatio-temporal rupture process of the 2008 great Wenchuanearthquake[J].Science in China Series D:Geosciences,2008,38(10):1186～1194.
[8]王连捷,崔军文,周春景,等.汶川5.12地震发震机理的数值模拟[J].地质力学学报,2009,15(2):105～113.WANG Lian-jie,CUI Jun-wen,ZHOU Chun-jing,et al.Numerical modeling for Wenchuan earthquake mechanism[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2009,15(2):105～113.
[9]程裕淇.中国区域地质概论[M].北京:地质出版社,1994.CHENG Yu-qi.Introduction of China regional geology[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1994.
[10]崔作舟,陈纪平,吴苓,等.花石峡—邵阳深部地壳的结构和构造[M].北京:地质出版社,1996.CUI Zuo-zhou,CHEN Ji-ping,WU Ling,et al.The deep crust structures and tectonics in Huashixia-Shaoyang[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1996.
[11]马杏垣.中国岩石圈动力学地图集[M].北京:地震出版社,1989.MA Xing-yuan.Lithospheric dynamics atlas of China[M].Beijing:Seismological Publishing House,1989.
[12]王卫民,赵连锋,李娟,等.1999年台湾集集地震震源破裂过程[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(1):132～147.WANG Wei-min,ZHAO Lian-feng,LI Juan,et al.Rupture process of the Chi-Chi(Taiwan)earthquake in 1999[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2005,48(1):132～147.
[13]陈杰,陈宇坤,丁国瑜,等.2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震地表破裂带[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(6):629～639.CHEN Jie,CHEN Yu-kun,DING Guo-yu,et al.Surface rupture zones of the 2001 earthquake MS 8.1 west of KunlunPass,northern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Quaternary Sciences,2003,23(6):629～639.
[14]李述靖,郑达兴.遥感构造解析与地壳表层结构构造型式[J].地质力学学报,2006,12(3):279～286.LI Shu-jing,ZHENG Da-xing.Structural interpretation of remote sensing data and structural patterns of the crust surface:One aspect of extended geomechanical research[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2006,12(3):279～286.
[15]刘刚,李述靖,赵福岳,等.阿尔金—康西瓦剪切—推覆系统和帕米尔推覆构造的遥感解析[J].地球学报,2006,27(1):25～29.LIU Gang,LI Shu-jing,ZHAO Fu-yue,et al.A remote sensing analysis of Altun-Kangxiwa shear thrust system and Pamirnappe structure[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2006,27(1):25～29.
[16]曹建玲,石耀霖,张怀,等.青藏高原GPS位移绕喜玛拉雅东构造结顺时针旋转成因的数值模拟[J].科学通报,2009,54(2):224～234.CAO Jian-ling,SHI Yao-ling,ZHANG Huai,et al.[J].Numerical simulation of GPS observed clockwise rotation aroundthe eastern Himalayan syntax in the Tibetan Plateau[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2009,54(2):224～234.
[17]易桂喜,闻学泽,王思维,等.由地震活动参数分析龙门山—岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性[J].中国地震,2006,22(2):117～125.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,WANG Si-wei,et al.Study on fault sliding behaviors and strong-earthquake risk of theLongmenshan-Minshan fault zones from current seismicity parameters[J].Earthquake Research in China,2006,22(2):117～125.
[18]张永双,雷伟志,石菊松,等.四川5.12地震次生地质灾害的基本特征初析[J].地质力学学报,2008,14(2):110～116.ZHANG Yong-shuang,LEI Wei-zhi,SHI Ju-song,et al.General characteristics of 5.12 earthquake induced geo-hazards inSichuan[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2008,14(2):110～116.
[19]张永双,石菊松,孙萍,等.汶川地震内外动力耦合及灾害实例[J].地质力学学报,2009,15(2):131～141.ZHANG Yong-shuang,SHI Ju-shong,SUN Ping,et al.Coupling between endogenic and exogenic geological processes inthe Wenchuan earthquake and example analysis of geo-hazards[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2009,15(2):131～141.
[20]谭成轩,孙叶,吴树仁,等.“5.12”汶川MS 8.0大地震后关于我国区域地壳稳定性评价的思考[J].地质力学学报,2009,15(2):142～150.TAN Cheng-xuan,SUN Ye,WU Shu-ren,et al.A consideration on regional crustal stability assessment after Ms 8.0Wenchuan strong earthquake in China[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2009,15(2):142～150.
[21]彭华,马秀敏,姜景捷.龙门山北端青川断层附近应力测量与断层稳定性[J].地质力学学报,2009,15(2):114～130.PENG Hua,MA Xiu-min,JIANG Jing-jie.Stability and stress measurement near the Qingchuan fault in the northernLongmen Mountains[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2009,15(2):114～130.
[22]王连捷,周春景,孙东生,等.汶川5.12地震引起的库仑应力变化及其对周边地震活动的影响[J].地质力学学报,2008,14(3):193～200.WANG Lian-jie,ZHOU Chun-jing,SUN Dong-sheng,et al.Coulomb stress changes caused by Wenchuan earthquake andits influence on seismic activity in the adjacent area[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2008,14(3):193～200.
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①有关地震的信息来自中国地震信息网(http://www.csi.ac.cn)和中国地震网专业地震信息网(http://www.ceic.ac.cn),地震发生日期为世界协调时。
①有关地震的信息来自中国地震信息网(http://www.csi.ac.cn)和中国地震网专业地震信息网(http://www.ceic.ac.cn),地震发生日期为世界协调时。
①李述靖,刘刚.念青唐古拉走滑断裂带与藏东平行双剪切—推覆构造系统的遥感构造解析.第十七届中国遥感大会学术论文,2010。
①有关地震的信息来自中国地震信息网(http://www.csi.ac.cn)和中国地震网专业地震信息网(http://www.ceic.ac.cn),地震发生日期为世界协调时。
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