21世纪中国大陆第一个大震活动幕的预测
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摘要
基于对 2 0世纪中国大陆 7.0级以上大地震与月亮白赤交角的变化和太阳活动的研究结果 ,根据对未来 50a (年 )月亮白赤交角的值与目前太阳活动的形势 ,提出 2 1世纪中国大陆第一个大地震活动幕可能是 2 0 0 6或 2 0 0 7～ 2 0 1 5年
The research results on the relationship between the earthquakes over 7.0 in 20th century in mainland China, change of the inclination between the lunar path and the Equator,and the solar activity indicate: 1. the earthquakes over 7.0 in mainland China will be clustered in the time when the inclination between the lunar path and Equator changes from the maximum to the minimum; 2. the earthquakes will also be clustered in the even number cycles of solar activity. According to results above, based on the values of the inclination between the lunar path and the Equator,and solar activities for future 50 years the conclution is that the first curtain of the seismic activity in 21st century in mainland China would be from 2006 or 2007 to 2015.
The research results on the relationship between the earthquakes over 7.0 in 20th century in mainland China, change of the inclination between the lunar path and the Equator,and the solar activity indicate: 1. the earthquakes over 7.0 in mainland China will be clustered in the time when the inclination between the lunar path and Equator changes from the maximum to the minimum; 2. the earthquakes will also be clustered in the even number cycles of solar activity. According to results above, based on the values of the inclination between the lunar path and the Equator,and solar activities for future 50 years the conclution is that the first curtain of the seismic activity in 21st century in mainland China would be from 2006 or 2007 to 2015.
引文
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[2] 马宗晋,傅征祥,张郢珍等.1966～1976年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.189.
[3] 胡辉,李晓明.中国大地震的天文特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,1999,(1):30-34.
[4] 胡辉,王锐,李晓明(HUHui,WANGRui,LIXiao-ming).日月引潮力与地震(ForceCausedbyLuni-solarTideandEarthquake)[J].云南天文台台刊(PublicationsoftheYunnanObservatory),2000,(4):101.
[5] 杜品仁,徐道一.天文地震学引论[M].北京:地震出版社,1989.157.
[6] 吴铭蟾,胡辉(WUMing-chan,HUHui).云南强震和月相、白赤交角的关系(TheRelationshipBetweenStrongEarthquakes,LunarPhase,InclinationBetweentheMoonsPathandtheEquatoratYunnanProrine)[J].云南天文台台刊(PublicationsoftheYunnanObservatory),1999,(1):55.
[7] 罗葆荣(LUOBao-rong).高能粒子流对地震活动的可能调制(TheProbableModulationofEnergeticParticlestoSeismicActivity)[J].云南天文台刊(PublicationsoftheYunnanObservatory),1995,(2):1.
[8] 赵洪声,张世杰,胡辉等.天─地─气隅合与地震预报,昆明:云南大学出版社,1994.61.
[9] 郭增建,秦保燕,郭安宁.地气隅合与天灾预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.165.
[10] 赵洪声,刘祖荫.云南地震预报系统论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.72.
[11] HelenE ,Coffey,ed.Solar-GeophysicalDataPromptreports[J].Boulder,Colorado:No.680-partI,April2001.
[12] HelenE ,Coffey,ed.PreliminaryReportandForecastofSGD .SWOPRF 1370,04December2001,Boulder,Colorado
[13] 韩延本,王家龙.Preliminaryverificationofsunspotpredictionsofcycle23bythemethodofsimmilarcycles[J].CA&A .,Letters,1999,23:139-142.
[14] 韩延本.太阳黑子相对数峰值及其出现时间的一种预测方法[J].科学通报,2000,45(4):356-359.
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