地震学定量综合预测的尝试性改进及在宁夏及邻区的使用
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摘要
本文在地震学定量综合预测方法的基础上,借鉴并尝试对该方法的一些处理环节作了探索性的改进,针对宁夏及邻区作地震综合预测检验.通过对大量震例分析和计算结果的长时间检验,结果表明新的方法具有很好的内符、外推检验结果,所提出的地震预测指标对宁夏及邻区MS5.0级以上地震的预测具有一定的参考价值,但由于震例有限,进一步的检验还需要在今后的实际工作中展开.
In this paper,the Seismological Quantitative Integrated Prediction method is refered to and some skills of processing data have been made to improve the rate of culculation and accurateness of forecasting in Ningxia and its adjacent areas for seismic testing.Through analyzing many earthquakes cases and making a long time prediction calculation,the results show that the new method has good samples tests and extrapolated tests features,besides the proposed indicators of earthquakes prediction are useful for predicting earthquakes of MS 5.0 in the Ningxia and it adjacent areas.Because of the limited earthquakes cases,further tests also need to carry out in the future.
In this paper,the Seismological Quantitative Integrated Prediction method is refered to and some skills of processing data have been made to improve the rate of culculation and accurateness of forecasting in Ningxia and its adjacent areas for seismic testing.Through analyzing many earthquakes cases and making a long time prediction calculation,the results show that the new method has good samples tests and extrapolated tests features,besides the proposed indicators of earthquakes prediction are useful for predicting earthquakes of MS 5.0 in the Ningxia and it adjacent areas.Because of the limited earthquakes cases,further tests also need to carry out in the future.
引文
[1]梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.Mei S R,Feng D Y,Zhang G M,et al.Introduction to earthquake prediction in China[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1993.
[2]许绍燮,陆远忠,朱传镇,等.地震预报方法实用化研究文集[M].北京:学术书刊出版社出版,1989.Xu S X,Lu Y Z,Zhu C Z,et al.Earthquake prediction method practical application research anthology[M].Beijing:Academic literature Press,1989.
[3]陈章立,葛治洲.大陆地震预报的方法和理论[M].北京:地震出版社,1998.Chen Z L,Ge Z Z.Continental earthquake prediction methods and theories[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1998.
[4]张晓东,傅征祥,张永仙,等.1999～2002年地震预报研究进展[J].地震学报,2003,25(5):479-491.Zhang X D,Fu Z X,Zhang Y X,et al.Progress in earthquake prediction from1999to2002[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2003,25(5):479-491.
[5]陈棋福,石耀霖.基于遗传算法的分类体系在地震预报中的应用探索[J].地球物理学报,1997,40(4):539-549.Cheng Q F,Shi Y L.Classifier system based on geneticalgorithms and its application in earthquake prediction[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1997,40(4):539-549.
[6]Holland,J.,Gentenic Algorithms,Scientific American,1992,267,44-50.
[7]朱元清,石耀霖.地震活动性研究中的非线性动力学模型[J].地球物理学报,1991,34(1):20-31.Zhu Y Q,Shi Y L.Nonlinear dynamic modeling in seismicity analysis[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1991,34(1):20-31.
[8]尹祥础,陈学忠,尹灿.加卸载响应比——一个刻划构造运动稳定性的新参数及其在地质灾害预测中的应用[J].地球物理学进展,1993,8(4):97-103.Yin X C,Chen X Z,Yin C.Loading and Unloading Response Ratio—A new parameter determine the degree of stability of tectonic movement and its application to prdiction of geological disasters[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),1993,8(4):97-103.
[9]陈学忠,尹祥础.非线性科学在地震研究中的一些应用[J].地球物理学进展,1994,9(1):100-110.Chen X Z,Yin X C,Some applications of nonlinear science to earthquake research[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),1994,9(1):100-110.
[10]尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平,等.加卸载响应比——一种新的地震预报方法[J].地球物理学报,1994,37(6):767-775.Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,et al.The Load-unload Response Ratio Theory:A new approach to earthquake prediction[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1994,37(6):767-775.
[11]王炜,刘悦,李国正,等.中国大陆强震时间序列预测的支持向量机方法[J],地震,2005,25(4):26-32.Wang W,Liu R,Li G Z,et al.The support vector machine method for time sequence forecasting of strong earthquakes in China’s Mainland[J],Earthquake,2005,25(4):26-32.
[12]王炜,刘悦,李国正,等.我国大陆强震预测的支持向量机方法[J],地震学报,2006,28(1):29-36.Wang W,Liu R,Li G Z,et al.Support vector machine method for forecasting future strong earthquakes in Chinese Mainland[J],Acta Seismological Sinica,2006,28(1):29-36.
[13]Vapnik V N.The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory[M].New York:Springer-Verlag,1995.
[14]秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4):1001-1014.Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.Brittle failure mechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and exploration on a new way for earthquake prediction[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(4):1001-1014.
[15]秦四清,薛雷,徐锡伟,等.川滇地区未来强震预测与汶川M W 7.9级地震孕震过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(11):2639-2650.Qing S Q,Xue L,Xu X W,et al.A prediction of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions and analysisof the seismogenic process of the Wenchuan M W 7.9 earthquake[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(11):2639-2650.
[16]韩竹军,董绍鹏,谢富仁,等.南北地震带北部5次(1561～1920年)M S≥7级地震触发关系研究[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(6):1776-1784.Han Z J,Dong S P,Xie F R,et al.Earthquake triggering by Static stress:The5major earthquakes with M S≥7(1561～1920)in the Northern Section of South-north Seismic Zone,China[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(6):1776-1784.
[17]周斌,刘涛,文俊武.GIS技术在地震学研究中的应用[J].地球物理学进展,2005,20(1):160-164.Zhou B,Liu T,Wen J W.The current application of GIS in earthquake studies[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2005,20(1):160-164.
[18]马瑾,陈顺云,刘培洵,等.用卫星热红外信息研究关联断层活动的时空变换——以南北地震构造带为例[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(3):816-823.Ma J,CHEN S Y,LIU P X,et al.Temporal-spatial variations of associated faulting inferred from satellite infrared information:A case study of the N-S seismo-tectonic zone in China[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2006,49(3):816-823.
[19]马晓静,邓志辉,陈梅花,等.从卫星红外亮温与大地热流的关系看地震前的热红外异常[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(11):2746-2751.MA X J,DENG Z H,CHEN M H,et al.A perspective to thermal infrared anomalies before earthquakes from the relationship between satellite infrared brightness temperature and terrestrial heat flow[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(11):2746-2751.
[20]张元生,郭晓,魏从信,等.日本9级和缅甸7.2级地震热辐射表现特征[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(10):160-164.ZHANG Y S,GUO X,WEI C X,et al.The characteristics of seismic thermal radiation of Japam M S 9.0and Myanmar Ms7.2earthquake[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2011,54(10):160-164.
[21]王时标,姚振兴.地震孕育非线性动力学过程研究的“扩展概率法”[J].地球物理学进展,1998,13(3):17-31.WANG S B,YAO Z X.“The Extending Probability Method”in nonlinear dynamic research[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),1998,13(3):17-31.
[22]周翠英,朱元清,王红卫,等.华北地区地震学指标的定量对比筛选及其综合预报方法研究[J].地震学报,1999,21(2):208-213.ZHOU C Y,ZHU Y Q,WANG H W,et al.Quantitative comparison screening of seismological indexes and research on the Integrated Prediction Method in North China[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),1999,21(2):208-213.
[23]周翠英,侯海峰,王红卫,等.中国典型地区强震的地震学综合预测指标筛选及其在西南地区的检验[J].中国地震,2001,17(4):392-402.ZHOU C Y,HOU H F,WANG H W,et al.Screening of Seismological Integrated Prediction Indexes on strong earthquakes in Chinese typical area and its testing in the Southwest China Area[J].Earthquake Research In China(in Chinese),2001,17(4):392-402.
[24]张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰,等.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.ZHANG G M,FU Z X,GUI X T,et al.Introduction To Earthquake Prediction[M].Beijing:Science Press,2001.
[25]Keilis-Borok,Knopoff.Bursts of aftershocks,long-term precursors of strong earthquakes[J].Nature,1980,283:259-263.
[26]许绍燮.地震预报能力评分[M].北京:学术期刊出版社,1989.XU S X.Grading Earthquake Prediction[M].Beijing:Academic Press,1989.
[27]冯建刚,姚家骏,代炜,等.青藏高原北部地区小震目录完整性分析[J].高原地震,2010,22(2):10-14.FENG J G,YAO J J,DAI W,et al.Analysis on minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs in north region of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Plateau Earthquake Research(in Chinese),2010,22(2):10-14.
[28]王海涛,杨立明,马文静,等.西北地区强地震短期前兆特征和预测方法研究[M].北京:地震出版社,2006.WANG H T,YANG L M,MA W J,et al.Short-term precursory characteristics before strong earthquakes in Northwest China and earthquake prediction methods[M].Beijing:Earthquake Academic Press,2006.
[2]许绍燮,陆远忠,朱传镇,等.地震预报方法实用化研究文集[M].北京:学术书刊出版社出版,1989.Xu S X,Lu Y Z,Zhu C Z,et al.Earthquake prediction method practical application research anthology[M].Beijing:Academic literature Press,1989.
[3]陈章立,葛治洲.大陆地震预报的方法和理论[M].北京:地震出版社,1998.Chen Z L,Ge Z Z.Continental earthquake prediction methods and theories[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1998.
[4]张晓东,傅征祥,张永仙,等.1999～2002年地震预报研究进展[J].地震学报,2003,25(5):479-491.Zhang X D,Fu Z X,Zhang Y X,et al.Progress in earthquake prediction from1999to2002[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2003,25(5):479-491.
[5]陈棋福,石耀霖.基于遗传算法的分类体系在地震预报中的应用探索[J].地球物理学报,1997,40(4):539-549.Cheng Q F,Shi Y L.Classifier system based on geneticalgorithms and its application in earthquake prediction[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1997,40(4):539-549.
[6]Holland,J.,Gentenic Algorithms,Scientific American,1992,267,44-50.
[7]朱元清,石耀霖.地震活动性研究中的非线性动力学模型[J].地球物理学报,1991,34(1):20-31.Zhu Y Q,Shi Y L.Nonlinear dynamic modeling in seismicity analysis[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1991,34(1):20-31.
[8]尹祥础,陈学忠,尹灿.加卸载响应比——一个刻划构造运动稳定性的新参数及其在地质灾害预测中的应用[J].地球物理学进展,1993,8(4):97-103.Yin X C,Chen X Z,Yin C.Loading and Unloading Response Ratio—A new parameter determine the degree of stability of tectonic movement and its application to prdiction of geological disasters[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),1993,8(4):97-103.
[9]陈学忠,尹祥础.非线性科学在地震研究中的一些应用[J].地球物理学进展,1994,9(1):100-110.Chen X Z,Yin X C,Some applications of nonlinear science to earthquake research[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),1994,9(1):100-110.
[10]尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平,等.加卸载响应比——一种新的地震预报方法[J].地球物理学报,1994,37(6):767-775.Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,et al.The Load-unload Response Ratio Theory:A new approach to earthquake prediction[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1994,37(6):767-775.
[11]王炜,刘悦,李国正,等.中国大陆强震时间序列预测的支持向量机方法[J],地震,2005,25(4):26-32.Wang W,Liu R,Li G Z,et al.The support vector machine method for time sequence forecasting of strong earthquakes in China’s Mainland[J],Earthquake,2005,25(4):26-32.
[12]王炜,刘悦,李国正,等.我国大陆强震预测的支持向量机方法[J],地震学报,2006,28(1):29-36.Wang W,Liu R,Li G Z,et al.Support vector machine method for forecasting future strong earthquakes in Chinese Mainland[J],Acta Seismological Sinica,2006,28(1):29-36.
[13]Vapnik V N.The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory[M].New York:Springer-Verlag,1995.
[14]秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4):1001-1014.Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.Brittle failure mechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and exploration on a new way for earthquake prediction[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(4):1001-1014.
[15]秦四清,薛雷,徐锡伟,等.川滇地区未来强震预测与汶川M W 7.9级地震孕震过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(11):2639-2650.Qing S Q,Xue L,Xu X W,et al.A prediction of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions and analysisof the seismogenic process of the Wenchuan M W 7.9 earthquake[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(11):2639-2650.
[16]韩竹军,董绍鹏,谢富仁,等.南北地震带北部5次(1561～1920年)M S≥7级地震触发关系研究[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(6):1776-1784.Han Z J,Dong S P,Xie F R,et al.Earthquake triggering by Static stress:The5major earthquakes with M S≥7(1561～1920)in the Northern Section of South-north Seismic Zone,China[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(6):1776-1784.
[17]周斌,刘涛,文俊武.GIS技术在地震学研究中的应用[J].地球物理学进展,2005,20(1):160-164.Zhou B,Liu T,Wen J W.The current application of GIS in earthquake studies[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2005,20(1):160-164.
[18]马瑾,陈顺云,刘培洵,等.用卫星热红外信息研究关联断层活动的时空变换——以南北地震构造带为例[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(3):816-823.Ma J,CHEN S Y,LIU P X,et al.Temporal-spatial variations of associated faulting inferred from satellite infrared information:A case study of the N-S seismo-tectonic zone in China[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2006,49(3):816-823.
[19]马晓静,邓志辉,陈梅花,等.从卫星红外亮温与大地热流的关系看地震前的热红外异常[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(11):2746-2751.MA X J,DENG Z H,CHEN M H,et al.A perspective to thermal infrared anomalies before earthquakes from the relationship between satellite infrared brightness temperature and terrestrial heat flow[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(11):2746-2751.
[20]张元生,郭晓,魏从信,等.日本9级和缅甸7.2级地震热辐射表现特征[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(10):160-164.ZHANG Y S,GUO X,WEI C X,et al.The characteristics of seismic thermal radiation of Japam M S 9.0and Myanmar Ms7.2earthquake[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2011,54(10):160-164.
[21]王时标,姚振兴.地震孕育非线性动力学过程研究的“扩展概率法”[J].地球物理学进展,1998,13(3):17-31.WANG S B,YAO Z X.“The Extending Probability Method”in nonlinear dynamic research[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),1998,13(3):17-31.
[22]周翠英,朱元清,王红卫,等.华北地区地震学指标的定量对比筛选及其综合预报方法研究[J].地震学报,1999,21(2):208-213.ZHOU C Y,ZHU Y Q,WANG H W,et al.Quantitative comparison screening of seismological indexes and research on the Integrated Prediction Method in North China[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),1999,21(2):208-213.
[23]周翠英,侯海峰,王红卫,等.中国典型地区强震的地震学综合预测指标筛选及其在西南地区的检验[J].中国地震,2001,17(4):392-402.ZHOU C Y,HOU H F,WANG H W,et al.Screening of Seismological Integrated Prediction Indexes on strong earthquakes in Chinese typical area and its testing in the Southwest China Area[J].Earthquake Research In China(in Chinese),2001,17(4):392-402.
[24]张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰,等.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.ZHANG G M,FU Z X,GUI X T,et al.Introduction To Earthquake Prediction[M].Beijing:Science Press,2001.
[25]Keilis-Borok,Knopoff.Bursts of aftershocks,long-term precursors of strong earthquakes[J].Nature,1980,283:259-263.
[26]许绍燮.地震预报能力评分[M].北京:学术期刊出版社,1989.XU S X.Grading Earthquake Prediction[M].Beijing:Academic Press,1989.
[27]冯建刚,姚家骏,代炜,等.青藏高原北部地区小震目录完整性分析[J].高原地震,2010,22(2):10-14.FENG J G,YAO J J,DAI W,et al.Analysis on minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs in north region of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Plateau Earthquake Research(in Chinese),2010,22(2):10-14.
[28]王海涛,杨立明,马文静,等.西北地区强地震短期前兆特征和预测方法研究[M].北京:地震出版社,2006.WANG H T,YANG L M,MA W J,et al.Short-term precursory characteristics before strong earthquakes in Northwest China and earthquake prediction methods[M].Beijing:Earthquake Academic Press,2006.
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