旱灾的地气环流形势分类
摘要
旱灾与地气环流有很好的相关,根据对近50多年旱灾成因的普查,可将形成旱灾的地气环流形势分成4类:(1)大地冷涡;(2)月(季)际地温的大片负变温区;(3)大震前的大旱(旱震关系);(4)强震地热涡出现之后的地冷涡区。研究发现,大地冷涡因其波长较长,故移动缓慢,造成的干旱一般均较严重。T′_(32)的月际负变温区一般是表示该地区地下热活动减弱,故可预测下月将少雨;T′_(32)的季际负变温区,同理也可预测下季将少雨。强地震对正常地热活动是一个强干扰,我国的大旱大涝几乎均与强地震有关。
A good correlation exists between drought and underground general circulation.Based on about the data of drought of recent 50 years,there are 4 types in total of who create drought.The first is large underground cold vortex,the second is large negative area anomaly of inter-monthly(inter-seasonal) underground temperature of 3.2 m depths.The third is serious drought before strong earthquakes (drought-earthquake relationships).The last one is region that cold vortex stayed after a macroseism. Further more,we found that cold vortexes slowly move because of its long wavelength,and droughts result from cold vortexes are usually more serious.Negative anomaly of underground temperature of 3.2 m depths shows a weakened thermal process,it can be seen a signal to predict rainless the next month.After all,both serious droughts and floods of China are related to strong earthquake.
A good correlation exists between drought and underground general circulation.Based on about the data of drought of recent 50 years,there are 4 types in total of who create drought.The first is large underground cold vortex,the second is large negative area anomaly of inter-monthly(inter-seasonal) underground temperature of 3.2 m depths.The third is serious drought before strong earthquakes (drought-earthquake relationships).The last one is region that cold vortex stayed after a macroseism. Further more,we found that cold vortexes slowly move because of its long wavelength,and droughts result from cold vortexes are usually more serious.Negative anomaly of underground temperature of 3.2 m depths shows a weakened thermal process,it can be seen a signal to predict rainless the next month.After all,both serious droughts and floods of China are related to strong earthquake.
引文
[1]张书余.干旱气象学[M].北京:气象出版社,2008
[2]布和朝鲁,纪立人,崔茂常.夏季我国干旱、半干旱区陆面过程能量平衡及其局地大气环流[J].气候与环境研究,2002,7 (1):61-73
[3]张庆云,卫捷,陶诗言.近50年华北干旱的年代际和年际变化及大气环流特征[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3):307- 318
[4]黄刚.与华北干旱相关联的全球尺度气候变化现象[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3):270-279
[5]汤懋苍,赵红岩,张存杰,等.地气图预测气候变化的原理和方法(上)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:1-132
[6]汤懋苍,张拥军,李栋梁.近50年中国冬季大地冷涡与春夏季干旱相关的统计[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):1006-1009
[7]郭维栋,柳艳香,汤懋苍.1998年夏季地震、地温场演变与洪涝过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(3):411-416
[8]耿庆国.中国旱震关系研究[M].北京:海洋出版社,1985:1 -457
[9]宋连春,邓振镛,董安详.干旱[M].北京:气象出版社, 2003
[10]汤懋苍,刘小凤,李栋梁,等.对2003年下半年的天灾预测意见和结果检验[J].高原气象,2005,24(4):585-589
[11]汤懋苍,张拥军,李栋梁.短期气候预测地气图方法的7条预报规则[J].高原气象,2005,24(2):218 222
[12]汤懋苍,成青燕,张东方,等.地气图预测全国月降水的实践总结[J].高原气象,2008,27(5):1054-1059
[13]汤懋苍,柳苗,朱德琴,等.我国东部的准经向降水带及其成因分析[J].高原气象,2006,25(5):964-968
[14]汤懋苍,惠小英,郭维栋,等.强地震前的“暖干异常”与地温、降水波及应变[J].西北地震学报(待发表)
[15]汤懋苍,赵红岩,张存杰,等.地气图预测气候变化的原理和方法(下)[M].北京:气象出版社(待出版)
[2]布和朝鲁,纪立人,崔茂常.夏季我国干旱、半干旱区陆面过程能量平衡及其局地大气环流[J].气候与环境研究,2002,7 (1):61-73
[3]张庆云,卫捷,陶诗言.近50年华北干旱的年代际和年际变化及大气环流特征[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3):307- 318
[4]黄刚.与华北干旱相关联的全球尺度气候变化现象[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3):270-279
[5]汤懋苍,赵红岩,张存杰,等.地气图预测气候变化的原理和方法(上)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:1-132
[6]汤懋苍,张拥军,李栋梁.近50年中国冬季大地冷涡与春夏季干旱相关的统计[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):1006-1009
[7]郭维栋,柳艳香,汤懋苍.1998年夏季地震、地温场演变与洪涝过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(3):411-416
[8]耿庆国.中国旱震关系研究[M].北京:海洋出版社,1985:1 -457
[9]宋连春,邓振镛,董安详.干旱[M].北京:气象出版社, 2003
[10]汤懋苍,刘小凤,李栋梁,等.对2003年下半年的天灾预测意见和结果检验[J].高原气象,2005,24(4):585-589
[11]汤懋苍,张拥军,李栋梁.短期气候预测地气图方法的7条预报规则[J].高原气象,2005,24(2):218 222
[12]汤懋苍,成青燕,张东方,等.地气图预测全国月降水的实践总结[J].高原气象,2008,27(5):1054-1059
[13]汤懋苍,柳苗,朱德琴,等.我国东部的准经向降水带及其成因分析[J].高原气象,2006,25(5):964-968
[14]汤懋苍,惠小英,郭维栋,等.强地震前的“暖干异常”与地温、降水波及应变[J].西北地震学报(待发表)
[15]汤懋苍,赵红岩,张存杰,等.地气图预测气候变化的原理和方法(下)[M].北京:气象出版社(待出版)
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