地球系统10~(-1)年变化原因概述
摘要
我们曾论述了地球系统10~0～10~8年变化的原因,唯对10~(-1)年(月一年)的地球系统变化未指出其变化原因。经过近年的研究,现在可以明确地指出,地球内部有两类流体:地外核和岩石圈裂隙中地下流体(地气)的活动是引发10~(-1)年地球系统变化的原因。外核的上升运动会使其上部岩石圈产生上抬和压缩,在地表层就出现3.2 m地温升高和降水减少的"干热异常",经过"孕震三步曲"最终引发构造地震。外核的下降运动会使其上部岩石圈产生下沉和拉张作用,地表层表现为3.2 m地温降低,同时降水增多的"湿冷异常",最终可导致发生陷落地震。外核的脉冲运动是引发岩石圈中形成地热(冷)涡的"源"。地气环流也是旋转地球上的一种流体运动,其特征速度(地下风速)约为0.2 m/s,据此可推得"自然气候周期"约为8个月。地气环流是使地气系统得以"流"的动力源。地热(冷)涡的"源"、"流"相结合是使短期气候呈现纷繁复杂变化的原因。
The causes of the earth system variations at the time scale of 10~0～10~8a have been systematically studied in our previous studies except for that at 10~(-1) a.In this paper,we propose that the driving force for the latter is the underground fluids(gases in the earth) widely distributed in the outer layer of the earth core and the crust.The ascending movement in the outer layer of the earth core will cause the uplifting and compressing effects in the crust.As a result,an increased soil temperature field at 3.2 m and a decreased precipitation field are founded,which is regarded as the precursor of the tectonic earthquake.On the contrary,the descending movements in the outer layer of the earth core will cause the sinking and expending effects in the crust followed by an decreased soil temperature field at 3.2 m and an increased precipitation field,which is thought of as the reason for the"subsiding earthquake".The impulse from the outer layer of the earth core is the driving force of the geothermal vortex in the crust.As a kind of flowing fluid on the rotating earth,the characteristic movement of the underground fluid is about 0.2 m/s,corresponding to a"natural climate period"of 8 months or so.The underground circulation is the driving force of the earth-atmosphere system.The reason for the high complexity and uncertainty of the short-term climate change is that it is comprehensively influenced by the geothermal vortex and the underground circulation.
The causes of the earth system variations at the time scale of 10~0～10~8a have been systematically studied in our previous studies except for that at 10~(-1) a.In this paper,we propose that the driving force for the latter is the underground fluids(gases in the earth) widely distributed in the outer layer of the earth core and the crust.The ascending movement in the outer layer of the earth core will cause the uplifting and compressing effects in the crust.As a result,an increased soil temperature field at 3.2 m and a decreased precipitation field are founded,which is regarded as the precursor of the tectonic earthquake.On the contrary,the descending movements in the outer layer of the earth core will cause the sinking and expending effects in the crust followed by an decreased soil temperature field at 3.2 m and an increased precipitation field,which is thought of as the reason for the"subsiding earthquake".The impulse from the outer layer of the earth core is the driving force of the geothermal vortex in the crust.As a kind of flowing fluid on the rotating earth,the characteristic movement of the underground fluid is about 0.2 m/s,corresponding to a"natural climate period"of 8 months or so.The underground circulation is the driving force of the earth-atmosphere system.The reason for the high complexity and uncertainty of the short-term climate change is that it is comprehensively influenced by the geothermal vortex and the underground circulation.
引文
[1]汤懋苍,赵红岩,张存杰,等.地气图预测气候变化的原理和方法(上)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:1-132
[2]汤懋苍,惠小英,郭维栋,等.强地震前的“于热异常”与地温降水波及应变弱停[J].西北地震学报(待发表)
[3]汤懋苍,高晓清.1980-1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征.Ⅰ.“热涡”的时空分布[J].中国科学(B辑),1995,25 (11):1186-1192
[4]汤懋苍,高晓清.1980-1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征.Ⅱ.“热涡”与地震的统计相关[J].中国科学(B辑), 1995,25(12):1313-1319
[5]汤懋苍.短期气候预测探索的新方向和新方法[M].中国寒区旱区环境与工程科学50年.北京:科学出版社,2009:320 -323
[6]汤懋苍,成青燕,张东方,等.地气图预测全国月降水的实践总结[J].高原气象,2008,27(5):1054-1059
[7]汤懋苍,李洁,张拥军,等.地下渗流体的大尺度运动特征初探[J].2009,已投稿
[8]赵复垣,张国栋,王泽之.微破裂弹性回跳模型和一次地震的三种波[C].天灾预测学术研讨会议文集.天灾预测专业委员会.北京:2009:152-157
[9]高晓清,汤懋苍,郭维栋,等.西北太平洋M_s≥7.8级强震影响我国月季降水场的过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2008,51 (4):1022-1028
[10]汤懋苍,刘小凤,李栋梁,等.对2003年下半年的天灾预测意见和结果检验[J].高原气象,2005,24(4):585-589
[11]汤懋苍,张拥军,唐红玉,等.青海省雪灾气候预测的地气图方法[J].高原气象,2005,24(3):315-319
[12]汤懋苍,张拥军.我国东南象限冬春季雨带的相关分析[J].高原气象,2006,25(2):352-355
[13]汤懋苍,张拥军,李栋梁.短期气候预测地气图方法的7条预报规则[J].高原气象,2005,24(2):218-222
[14]赵红岩,汤懋苍,张拥军,等.冬季亚洲强震与夏季我国主雨带的准同纬性[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(3):766-711
[15]汤懋苍,高晓清,柳艳香,等.长江、黄河大洪水前期地球系统演变的分析[J].高原气象,2000,19(4):441-449
[16]柳艳香,郭维栋,汤懋苍,等.1996-1998年逐月地震地温场与降水场演变分析[J].高原气象,2000,19(3):304-309
[17]柳艳香,汤懋苍.我国西部冬季的“扰动源涡”与东部夏季雨带分布[J].高原气象,2001,20(1):109-112
[18]陈文海,柳艳香,汤懋苍.利用地热异常定性预测年度降水之方法”[J].高原气象,2001,20(4):429-434
[19]汤懋苍,赵红岩,张存杰,等.地气图预测气候变化的原理和方法(下)[M].北京:气象出版社(待出版)
[20]郭维栋,柳艳香,汤懋苍.1998年夏季地震、地温场演变与洪涝过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(3):411-416
[21]张拥军,汤懋苍,李栋梁.淮河大水的基本原因及预测途径探讨[J].高原气象,2005,24(1):112-116
[22]汤懋苍,张拥军,李栋梁.青藏铁路沿线的天灾及其预测方法探索[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(5):1316-1320
[2]汤懋苍,惠小英,郭维栋,等.强地震前的“于热异常”与地温降水波及应变弱停[J].西北地震学报(待发表)
[3]汤懋苍,高晓清.1980-1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征.Ⅰ.“热涡”的时空分布[J].中国科学(B辑),1995,25 (11):1186-1192
[4]汤懋苍,高晓清.1980-1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征.Ⅱ.“热涡”与地震的统计相关[J].中国科学(B辑), 1995,25(12):1313-1319
[5]汤懋苍.短期气候预测探索的新方向和新方法[M].中国寒区旱区环境与工程科学50年.北京:科学出版社,2009:320 -323
[6]汤懋苍,成青燕,张东方,等.地气图预测全国月降水的实践总结[J].高原气象,2008,27(5):1054-1059
[7]汤懋苍,李洁,张拥军,等.地下渗流体的大尺度运动特征初探[J].2009,已投稿
[8]赵复垣,张国栋,王泽之.微破裂弹性回跳模型和一次地震的三种波[C].天灾预测学术研讨会议文集.天灾预测专业委员会.北京:2009:152-157
[9]高晓清,汤懋苍,郭维栋,等.西北太平洋M_s≥7.8级强震影响我国月季降水场的过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2008,51 (4):1022-1028
[10]汤懋苍,刘小凤,李栋梁,等.对2003年下半年的天灾预测意见和结果检验[J].高原气象,2005,24(4):585-589
[11]汤懋苍,张拥军,唐红玉,等.青海省雪灾气候预测的地气图方法[J].高原气象,2005,24(3):315-319
[12]汤懋苍,张拥军.我国东南象限冬春季雨带的相关分析[J].高原气象,2006,25(2):352-355
[13]汤懋苍,张拥军,李栋梁.短期气候预测地气图方法的7条预报规则[J].高原气象,2005,24(2):218-222
[14]赵红岩,汤懋苍,张拥军,等.冬季亚洲强震与夏季我国主雨带的准同纬性[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(3):766-711
[15]汤懋苍,高晓清,柳艳香,等.长江、黄河大洪水前期地球系统演变的分析[J].高原气象,2000,19(4):441-449
[16]柳艳香,郭维栋,汤懋苍,等.1996-1998年逐月地震地温场与降水场演变分析[J].高原气象,2000,19(3):304-309
[17]柳艳香,汤懋苍.我国西部冬季的“扰动源涡”与东部夏季雨带分布[J].高原气象,2001,20(1):109-112
[18]陈文海,柳艳香,汤懋苍.利用地热异常定性预测年度降水之方法”[J].高原气象,2001,20(4):429-434
[19]汤懋苍,赵红岩,张存杰,等.地气图预测气候变化的原理和方法(下)[M].北京:气象出版社(待出版)
[20]郭维栋,柳艳香,汤懋苍.1998年夏季地震、地温场演变与洪涝过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(3):411-416
[21]张拥军,汤懋苍,李栋梁.淮河大水的基本原因及预测途径探讨[J].高原气象,2005,24(1):112-116
[22]汤懋苍,张拥军,李栋梁.青藏铁路沿线的天灾及其预测方法探索[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(5):1316-1320
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