福建中、北部环境剪应力动态分析
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摘要
根据环境剪应力理论,利用中小地震震源参数计算福建中、北部环境剪应力值。在Arc-View平台上,对该地区环境剪应力分布特征、动态变化进行综合分析,发现福建中、北部环境剪应力在时间上存在模糊的强弱周期交替,空间上南强北弱,沿海强内地弱,具有成带性,受NE向长乐—东山断裂带、滨海断裂带和NW向台中—晋江断裂带、南日岛—沙县断裂带控制;空间动态变化具有从东向西迁移和以泉州海外乌丘屿附近、厦门海外两区域为中心向周边往复迁移的特点。福建中、北部地区环境剪应力值较低,未来2年是强地震弱发区。
According to ambient shear stress theory,ambient shear stress value of the central and north of Fujian Province was calculated with the source parameters of moderate and small earthquakes.The distribution characteristics of ambient shear stress and dynamic changes were analyzed synthetically based on the platform of Arc-View.It is found that ambient shear stress of central and north of Fujian province exists indistinct changes periodically with time and in the space it shows belting geographical distribution which is strong in south and costal regions,while weak in north and inland regions.Dynamic changes in the space appear such characteristics as transference from east to west,reciprocating transference from central region such as the region of Wuqiu island out of the Quanzhou sea,and the region out of Xiamen sea,to peripheral region due to the NE direction control of the Changle-Dongshan fault belt,Littoral fault belt,and NW direction control of Taizhong-Jinjiang fault belt(direction)& Nanri island-Shaxian fault belt.Ambient shear stress value in the area of central and north of Fujian Province is relative low, therefore it is unlikely that the strong earthquake will happen in next two years.
引文
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