一颗印沟泥石流评价及震后预测
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摘要
一颗印泥石流沟位于四川省西北部理县境内,具有典型泥石流沟谷特征,历史上曾经暴发过大型泥石流。"5.12"汶川地震在沟谷中形成了丰富的松散固体物源,同时导致沟谷流通区中出现多处堵塞,初步推测震后10~20a将处于泥石流活跃期。通过野外考察及遥感影像数据,获得地震前后沟谷的流域特征信息,对比分析地震前后沟谷内物源分布情况及稳定状况后,得出地震后沟谷内不稳定物源量增多,同时受震后堰塞影响,泥石流活动强度增大,泥石流峰值流量成倍增长等结论,这些将为合理评价地震后泥石流发展趋势,在灾后重建过程中为泥石流的预测、预报及防治工作提供参考。
Yikeyin valley is located in Li County of northwest Sichuan province,which has the typical characteristics of debris flow,and had historically broken out large-scale debris flow.'5·12' Wenchuan earthquake induced a mass of secondary mountainous disasters such as collapse,landslide and at the same time lead to appear a number of jams in the circulation area,we preliminary estimated that will make the debris flow ravines be active in 10~20 years after earthquake.Through field study and remote sensing image data,we obtained the basic characteristics of the valley basin before and after the earthquake,then compared with the source on the distribution and stability in the valley before and after the earthquake,we made a series of conclusion,such as: unstable source increases,and also because of Jam activity intensity increases,peak flow increase exponentially after the earthquake,on this basis we could got a reasonable evaluation of the development trend of the debris flow after the earthquake,additionally in the post-disaster reconstruction process,which could provide the reference for the debris flow in predicting,forecasting and prevention and control work.
Yikeyin valley is located in Li County of northwest Sichuan province,which has the typical characteristics of debris flow,and had historically broken out large-scale debris flow.'5·12' Wenchuan earthquake induced a mass of secondary mountainous disasters such as collapse,landslide and at the same time lead to appear a number of jams in the circulation area,we preliminary estimated that will make the debris flow ravines be active in 10~20 years after earthquake.Through field study and remote sensing image data,we obtained the basic characteristics of the valley basin before and after the earthquake,then compared with the source on the distribution and stability in the valley before and after the earthquake,we made a series of conclusion,such as: unstable source increases,and also because of Jam activity intensity increases,peak flow increase exponentially after the earthquake,on this basis we could got a reasonable evaluation of the development trend of the debris flow after the earthquake,additionally in the post-disaster reconstruction process,which could provide the reference for the debris flow in predicting,forecasting and prevention and control work.
引文
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[2]中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所.山洪泥石流滑坡灾害及防治[M].北京:科学出版社,1994.
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[4]康志成,李悼芬,马蔼乃,等.中国泥石流研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2004:16-22.
[5]DZ/T0220-2006泥石流灾害防治工程勘查规范[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006.
[6]刘计含.理县一颗印沟泥石流危害性评价[D].成都:成都理工大学,2010.
[7]吴积善,程尊兰,耿学勇,等.西藏东南部泥石流堵塞坝的形成机理[J].山地学报,2005,3(4):399-405.
[8]张信宝.有关汶川地震及次生山地灾害研究的一些科学问题[J].山地学报,2008,26(4):402-403.
[9]苏鹏程,刘希林,王全才,等.四川丹巴县邛山沟泥石流灾害特征及危险度评价[J].地质灾害与环境保,2004,15(1):9-12.
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