汶川8.0级地震前水氡浓度的临界慢化现象研究
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摘要
近年来,临界慢化(Critical slowing down)现象在揭示复杂动力系统是否趋于临界性灾变方面展示了重要潜力.本文基于临界慢化的概念,将其用于水氡浓度观测资料的处理.以2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震前龙门山断裂带破裂段及附近地区水氡浓度观测点资料为例,分别计算了表征临界慢化现象的自相关系数和方差.结果表明,汶川8.0级地震前,不同台站的水氡浓度震前都存在明显的临界慢化现象,这表明临界慢化现象可能是强地震发生前的一个早期信号.将临界慢化理论引入地震前兆资料的研究,对深入认识地震前兆机理、判定前兆异常所处阶段以及提高地震预测水平都具有重要的现实意义和科学价值.
In recent years,critical slowing down phenomenon have shown great potentials on the aspects of disclosing whether or not a complex dynamic system is tend to critical cataclysm.Based on the concepts of critical slowing down,the observed data of radon concentrations in water were processed in this article.Take radon concentration observation data at Longmen Mountain fault zone and nearby regions before the Wenchuan M_s8.0 earthquake on May 12,2008 as an example, the autocorrelation coefficients and variances which can characterize critical slowing down have been calculated separately.The result indicated that radon data at different station had obviously critical slowing down phenomenon before the Wenchuan M_s8.0 earthquake,which indicated that critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for strong earthquakes.The introduction and study on critical slowing down theory into precursory data processing have practical significances and important scientific values to thoroughly understand precursor mechanism,to determine the stage of precursory anomalies and to enhance earthquake prediction level.
In recent years,critical slowing down phenomenon have shown great potentials on the aspects of disclosing whether or not a complex dynamic system is tend to critical cataclysm.Based on the concepts of critical slowing down,the observed data of radon concentrations in water were processed in this article.Take radon concentration observation data at Longmen Mountain fault zone and nearby regions before the Wenchuan M_s8.0 earthquake on May 12,2008 as an example, the autocorrelation coefficients and variances which can characterize critical slowing down have been calculated separately.The result indicated that radon data at different station had obviously critical slowing down phenomenon before the Wenchuan M_s8.0 earthquake,which indicated that critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for strong earthquakes.The introduction and study on critical slowing down theory into precursory data processing have practical significances and important scientific values to thoroughly understand precursor mechanism,to determine the stage of precursory anomalies and to enhance earthquake prediction level.
引文
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[8] Kump L R. Palaeoclimate: foreshadowing the glacial era. Nature, 2005, 436(7049) :333-334
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[10] Anderson C N K, Hsieh C H, Sandin S A, et al. Why fishing magnifies fluctuations in fish abundance. Nature,2008, 452(7189) : 835-839
[11] Hsieh C H, Reiss C S, Hunter J R, et al. Fishing elevates variability in the abundance of exploited species. Nature,2006, 443(7113) : 859-862
[12] Rietkerk M, Dekker S C, de Ruiter P C, et al. Self-organized patchiness and catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Science,2004, 305(5692) : 1926-1929
[13] Elger C E, Lehnertz K. Seizure prediction by non-linear time series analysis of brain electrical activity. European Journal of Neuroscience , 1998, 10(2) :786-789
[14] Venegas J G, Winkler T, Musch G, et al. Self-organized patchiness in asthma as a prelude to catastrophic shifts.Nature, 2005, 434(7034) : 777-782
[15] Bak P, Tang C. Earthquakes as a self-organized critical phenomenon. J. Geophys. Res., 1989, 94( BID : 15635-15637
[16] Godano C, Alonzo M L, Caruso V. Self-organized criticality and earthquake predictability. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 1993, 80(3-4) : 117-123
[17] Wyss M, Aceves R L, Park S K, et al. Cannot earthquakes be predicted? Science, 1997, 278(5337) : 487-490
[18] 陈颙,陈凌.分形几何学.北京:地震出版社,1998Chen Y, Chen L. Fractal Geometry (in Chinese). Beijing:Earthquake Press, 1998
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[20] Shibata T, Matsumoto N, Akita F. Fluctuation in groundwater level prior to the critical failure point of the crustal rocks.Geophys. Res. Lett. , 2003, 30(1) : 1024-1027
[21] 刘耀炜,曹玲玲,平建军.地下流体短期前兆典型特征分析.中国地震,2004,20(4) :372～379Liu Y W, Cao L L, Ping J J. Studying on typical characters of fluid short-term precursory. Earthquake Research in China (in Chinese), 2004, 20(4) :372-379
[22] 车用太,鱼金子.地震地下流体学.北京:气象出版社,2006Che Y T, Yu J Z. Underground fluids and earthquake.Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2006． (in Chinese)
[23] 于渌,郝柏林.相变和临界现象.北京:科学出版社,1984Yu L, Hao B L. Phase transitions and critical phenomena.Beijing: Science Press, 1984． (in Chinese)
[24] 张浪平,余怀忠,尹祥础等.加卸载响应比方法在结构灾变 预测中的应用.工程力学,2010,27(3) :228～235 Zhang L P, Yu H Z, Yin X C, et al. Application of the Load/Unload response ratio method in catastrophic failure prediction of structures. Engineering Mechanics (in Chinese),2010, 27(3) :228～235
[25] Bence J R. Analysis of short time series: correcting for autocorrelation. Ecology, 1995, 76(2) :628～639
[26] Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes E H, et al. Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2008, 105(38) : 14308-14312
[27] Held H, Kleinen T. Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 2004, 31: L23207, DOI: 10． 1029/2004GL020972
[28] Ramos O. Criticality in earthquakes. Good or bad for prediction? Tectonophysics, 2010, 485(1-4) :321～326
[29] Ives A R. Measuring resilience in stochastic systems.Ecological Monographs , 1995, 65(2) :217～233
[2] 柯昌安,李正媛,窦玛丽.汶川8级地震前陕西地倾斜γ值的异常反应.大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(6) :56～60Ke C A, Li Z Y, Dou M L. Anomalous response of crust tilt tidal factor y value in Shanxi before Wenchuan Ms8． 0 earthquake, journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics ( in Chinese), 2008, 28(6) :56～60
[3] 祝芙英,吴 云,林剑等.汶川Ms8． 0地震前电离层TEC异常分析.大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(6) :16～21Zhu F Y, Wu Y, Lin J, et al. Study on ionospheric TEC anomaly prior to Wenchuan Ms8． 0 earthquake. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics (in Chinese), 2008, 28(6) : 16-21
[4] Huang Q H. Seismicity changes prior to the M_s8． 0 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, China. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 2008, 35(23) : L23308, DOI: 10． 1029/2008GL036270
[5] Jiang C S, Wu Z L. PI forecast for the Sichuan-Yunnan region; retrospective test after the May 12, 2008, Wechuan Earthquake. Pure Appl. Geophys., 2010,167 (6-7) : 751 ～761, DOI: 10． 1007/s000024-010-0070-8
[6] 蒋长胜,庄建仓.基于时-空ETAS模型给出的川滇地区背景地震活动和强震潜在危险区.地球物理学报,2010,53(2) :305-317, DOI: 10． 3969/j. issn. 0001-5733． 2010． 02． 001 Jiang C S, Zhuang J C. Evaluation of background seismicity and potential source zones of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunan region based on the space-time ETAS model. Chinese]. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2010, 53(2) . 305-317 ,DOI: 10． 3969/j. issn. 0001-5733． 2010． 02． 001
[7] Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock W A, et al. Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature, 2009, 461(7260) :53-59
[8] Kump L R. Palaeoclimate: foreshadowing the glacial era. Nature, 2005, 436(7049) :333-334
[9] Tripati A, Backman J, Elderfield H, et al. Eocene bipolar glaciation associated with global carbon cycle changes.Nature, 2005, 436(7049) :341-346
[10] Anderson C N K, Hsieh C H, Sandin S A, et al. Why fishing magnifies fluctuations in fish abundance. Nature,2008, 452(7189) : 835-839
[11] Hsieh C H, Reiss C S, Hunter J R, et al. Fishing elevates variability in the abundance of exploited species. Nature,2006, 443(7113) : 859-862
[12] Rietkerk M, Dekker S C, de Ruiter P C, et al. Self-organized patchiness and catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Science,2004, 305(5692) : 1926-1929
[13] Elger C E, Lehnertz K. Seizure prediction by non-linear time series analysis of brain electrical activity. European Journal of Neuroscience , 1998, 10(2) :786-789
[14] Venegas J G, Winkler T, Musch G, et al. Self-organized patchiness in asthma as a prelude to catastrophic shifts.Nature, 2005, 434(7034) : 777-782
[15] Bak P, Tang C. Earthquakes as a self-organized critical phenomenon. J. Geophys. Res., 1989, 94( BID : 15635-15637
[16] Godano C, Alonzo M L, Caruso V. Self-organized criticality and earthquake predictability. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 1993, 80(3-4) : 117-123
[17] Wyss M, Aceves R L, Park S K, et al. Cannot earthquakes be predicted? Science, 1997, 278(5337) : 487-490
[18] 陈颙,陈凌.分形几何学.北京:地震出版社,1998Chen Y, Chen L. Fractal Geometry (in Chinese). Beijing:Earthquake Press, 1998
[19] 吴忠良.自组织临界性与地震预测-对目前地震预测问题争论的评述(之一).中国地震,1998,14(4) :9～10Wu Z L. Self-organized criticality and earthquake prediction-A review on the current discussions about earthquake prediction ( Ⅰ). Earthquake Research in China (in Chinese), 1998, 14(4) : 9～10
[20] Shibata T, Matsumoto N, Akita F. Fluctuation in groundwater level prior to the critical failure point of the crustal rocks.Geophys. Res. Lett. , 2003, 30(1) : 1024-1027
[21] 刘耀炜,曹玲玲,平建军.地下流体短期前兆典型特征分析.中国地震,2004,20(4) :372～379Liu Y W, Cao L L, Ping J J. Studying on typical characters of fluid short-term precursory. Earthquake Research in China (in Chinese), 2004, 20(4) :372-379
[22] 车用太,鱼金子.地震地下流体学.北京:气象出版社,2006Che Y T, Yu J Z. Underground fluids and earthquake.Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2006． (in Chinese)
[23] 于渌,郝柏林.相变和临界现象.北京:科学出版社,1984Yu L, Hao B L. Phase transitions and critical phenomena.Beijing: Science Press, 1984． (in Chinese)
[24] 张浪平,余怀忠,尹祥础等.加卸载响应比方法在结构灾变 预测中的应用.工程力学,2010,27(3) :228～235 Zhang L P, Yu H Z, Yin X C, et al. Application of the Load/Unload response ratio method in catastrophic failure prediction of structures. Engineering Mechanics (in Chinese),2010, 27(3) :228～235
[25] Bence J R. Analysis of short time series: correcting for autocorrelation. Ecology, 1995, 76(2) :628～639
[26] Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes E H, et al. Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2008, 105(38) : 14308-14312
[27] Held H, Kleinen T. Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 2004, 31: L23207, DOI: 10． 1029/2004GL020972
[28] Ramos O. Criticality in earthquakes. Good or bad for prediction? Tectonophysics, 2010, 485(1-4) :321～326
[29] Ives A R. Measuring resilience in stochastic systems.Ecological Monographs , 1995, 65(2) :217～233
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