藏东南典型冰湖溃决危险性分析
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摘要
自川藏公路南线(西藏境内)修建通车以来,因受到泥石流、滑坡崩塌等自然灾害的影响而经常出现交通被迫中断的现象。其中,冰湖溃决泥石流由于其突发性强、洪峰高、流量大、破坏性强、持续时间短、范围广等特点,已成为藏东南地区危害程度最为严重的特殊灾种。通过对错下湖区域水文气候、冰川活动以及地震等要素的分析,初步认为该冰湖存在可能溃决的危险;通过终碛堤1/3和1/2溃决模式进行计算,得到溃决洪峰流量分别为2 236 m3/s和3 697 m3/s。错下湖一旦溃决,洪水汇入帕隆臧布江时将淹没以至冲毁沟口段公路、桥梁等基础设施,同时,主河还将面临泥石流堵江的危险。
Since construction and opening to traffic,traffic interruptions occur often along the southern line of Sichuan-Tibet highway(in Tibet) due to hazards like debris flow and landslides.Debris flows caused by glacier-lake outburst have become the most serious disasters with the characteristics of unexpected occurrence,high flood peak,great discharge,destructive, short time duration and broad range.Based on analysis on important factors as hydrological climate,glacier movement and earthquake records,etc. in Cuoxiahu area,the glacier-lake is preliminarily proved to be in danger of outburst.Outburst peak flows are obtained respectively as 2 236m3/s and 3 697m3/s by calculation in the mode of 1/3 and 1/2 dam break.Once the outburst of the lake happen,infrastructure such as roads,bridges along the Parlung Tsangpo River would be washed off,even worse,the main river also faces the danger of being blocked by debris flows.
Since construction and opening to traffic,traffic interruptions occur often along the southern line of Sichuan-Tibet highway(in Tibet) due to hazards like debris flow and landslides.Debris flows caused by glacier-lake outburst have become the most serious disasters with the characteristics of unexpected occurrence,high flood peak,great discharge,destructive, short time duration and broad range.Based on analysis on important factors as hydrological climate,glacier movement and earthquake records,etc. in Cuoxiahu area,the glacier-lake is preliminarily proved to be in danger of outburst.Outburst peak flows are obtained respectively as 2 236m3/s and 3 697m3/s by calculation in the mode of 1/3 and 1/2 dam break.Once the outburst of the lake happen,infrastructure such as roads,bridges along the Parlung Tsangpo River would be washed off,even worse,the main river also faces the danger of being blocked by debris flows.
引文
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[2]徐道明,冯清华.西藏喜马拉雅山区危险性冰湖及其溃决特征[J].地理学报,1989,44(3):343-352.
[3]徐道明.西藏波曲河冰湖溃决泥石流的形成与沉积特征[J].冰川冻土,1987,9(1):23-34.
[4]吕儒仁,唐邦兴,朱平一.西藏泥石流与环境[M].成都:成都科技大学出版社,1999.
[5]程尊兰,田金昌,张正波,等.藏东南冰湖溃决泥石流形成的气候因素与发展趋势[J].地学前缘,2009,16(6):207-214.
[6]程尊兰,朱平一,党超,等.藏东南冰湖溃决泥石流灾害及其发展趋势[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(6):954-959.
[7]Richardson S D,Reynolds J M.An overview of glacial hazards inthe Himalayas[J].Quaternary International,2000,65(6):31-47.
[8]Huggel C Haeberliw.An assessment procedure for glaceier hazardsin swess Alps[J].Can Geotech,2004,41(6):1068-1083.
[9]McKillop R J,Clague J J.A procedure for making objective prelim-inary assessments of outburst flood hazard from moraine-dammedlakes in southwestern British Columbia[J].Nat Hazards,2007,41:131-157.
[10]假拉,杜军,边巴扎西,等.西藏气象灾害区划研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[11]苗秋菊,张婉佩,沈永平.2006年全球气候异常,多项纪录被打破[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(1):50-54.
[12]国家地震局.中国地震简目[M].北京:地震出版社,1977.
[13]Popovn.Glacier debris flows migration in Kazakstan:assessment,prediction and control,in:Debris-flow hazard mitigation:me-chanics[C]//1st international conference.San Francisco,Califor-nia:American Society of Civil Engineers,1997:113-122.
[14]Froehlich D C.Embankment dam breach parameters revisited[C]//Proceeding of the 1995 ASEC conference on Water Re-source Engineering.San Antonio,Texas,1995:887-891.
[15]Froehlich D C.Peak outflow from breached embankment dam[J].Journal of Water Resource Planning and Management,1996,121(1):90-97.
[16]铁道部第三勘测设计院.桥涵水文[M].北京:人民铁道出版社,1979.
[17]程尊兰,田金昌,张正波,等.西藏江河堵溃灾害及成灾环境分析[J].灾害学,2009.24(1):26-30.
[18]吴积善,程尊兰,耿学勇.西藏东南部泥石流堵塞坝的形成机理[J].山地学报,2005,23(4):399-405.
[19]乔建平,蒲晓虹,王萌,等.大地震诱发滑坡的分布特点及危险性区划研究[J].灾害学,2009,24(2),25-29.
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