自然灾害强度的评估方法及应用——基于综合灾情指数的研究
摘要
自然灾害造成的损失通常表现在多个方面,为了客观、全面地评估自然灾害,需要综合考虑多种灾情因素,最终才能得到灾害的总体评估结果。综合灾情指数(SDI)是对一系列灾情评价因子进行归一化、加权求和,这样得到的定量化的灾害评估指数,能够综合反映灾情信息。阐述了具有通用性的综合灾情指数,并设计开发了综合灾情指数工具,该工具包括评价因子、设置权重、规范化灾情指数和综合灾情指数4个模块。以汶川地震为例,利用综合灾情指数工具,对地震重灾区的灾害强度进行了综合评估。通过分析评估结果,综合灾情指数的分布真实地反映了受灾的严重程度,显示出该工具具有较好的实用性和有效性。
Losses caused by natural disasters often manifested in many respects.In order to evaluate natural disasters objectively and comprehensively,we should consider various disaster factors and finally get an overall evaluation result of natural disasters.Synthetic disaster condition index(SDI) is a kind of comprehensive evaluation index which can reflect disaster information.For constructing SDI we normalized series of disaster evaluation factors,got the weighted summation,and then,quantitative disaster evaluation index is obtained.This paper described a general synthetic disaster condition index,and implemented the design and development of synthetic disaster condition index tool.This tool consists of four modules,including evaluation factors,setting weight factors,standardized disaster index and synthetic disaster condition index.This paper take Wenchuan earthquake as the case study.We evaluated the severity of the earthquake disaster in serious earthquake disaster-affected area using synthetic disaster condition index tool.The results show that,the distribution of synthetic disaster condition index reflects the disaster severity of Wenchuan earthquake truly.The rationality and validity of the tool is proved.
Losses caused by natural disasters often manifested in many respects.In order to evaluate natural disasters objectively and comprehensively,we should consider various disaster factors and finally get an overall evaluation result of natural disasters.Synthetic disaster condition index(SDI) is a kind of comprehensive evaluation index which can reflect disaster information.For constructing SDI we normalized series of disaster evaluation factors,got the weighted summation,and then,quantitative disaster evaluation index is obtained.This paper described a general synthetic disaster condition index,and implemented the design and development of synthetic disaster condition index tool.This tool consists of four modules,including evaluation factors,setting weight factors,standardized disaster index and synthetic disaster condition index.This paper take Wenchuan earthquake as the case study.We evaluated the severity of the earthquake disaster in serious earthquake disaster-affected area using synthetic disaster condition index tool.The results show that,the distribution of synthetic disaster condition index reflects the disaster severity of Wenchuan earthquake truly.The rationality and validity of the tool is proved.
引文
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[9]汤国安,杨昕.地理信息系统空间分析教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2007,82-93.
[2]刘兰芳,邓美容,廖梦思.湖南省山洪灾害综合风险分析及安全减灾研究—以2006年衡阳市山洪灾害为例[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(10):5-10.
[3]毛德华.洞庭湖区洪涝灾情评估与分析[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(3):46-53.
[4]国家汶川地震专家委员会灾害评估组.汶川地震灾害范围评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2008,88-89.
[5]孟菲,康建成,李卫江,等.50年来上海市台风灾害分析及预评估[J].灾害学,2007,22(4):71-76.
[6]茆会勇,张相庭.多种灾情预测模型的研究—2001年后上海市热带气旋灾情预测[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(2):41-50.
[7]樊琦,梁必琪.热带气旋灾情的预测及评估[J].地理学报,2000,55(增刊):52-56.
[8]陈正江,汤国安,任晓东.地理信息系统设计与开发[M].北京:科学出版社,2007,56-61.
[9]汤国安,杨昕.地理信息系统空间分析教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2007,82-93.
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