发震断层的永久位移概率评估方法
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摘要
基于Cornell地表地震动的概率方法,提出发震断层未来地震引起地表永久位移的概率分析方法,其中断层模型、地震发生模型、震级与破裂面的长度、宽度、地表位移之间关系的参数采用物探结果、震源运动学反演、历史地震资料、现场考察及测年确定。主要技术有2点:(1)概率分析场点地震动是场点周围断层所有潜在地震的贡献,而场点的地表永久位移仅是该断层的贡献;(2)场点所在断层发生的所有地震对场点的地震动均有贡献,而场点所在断层发生的少数地震才能对场点永久位移有贡献。应用提出的方法,结合海原断裂地震地质资料和地震活动性资料,给出2种特征地震模型下的不同概率水准的地震地表永久位移。发震断层不同概率水准下的地表永久位移评估为穿越断层的管线和桥梁工程提供基础数据,以便采取合理的抵抗永久地表位移措施,减小地震灾害带来的损失。
A probabilistic approach to evaluate permanent displacement of causative faults is presented based on engineering seismic risk analysis frame work of Cornell,of which the parameters includes the fault model,probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence,the relations among of earthquake magnitude with rupture length,width and surface displacement.The parameters can be determined or verified by results of geophysical prospecting,inversion of kinematics source,historical earthquake data,site investigations and fault dating.In engineering technical points of view,the method adopts two suppositions,one is that all the potential earthquake of fault around the field point contributes to the earquake motion while only the fault contributes to the permanent displacement of the analysis field point;the other is that permanent displacement origins from only a few strong earthquakes on the fault,rather than strong ground motion origins from all earthquakes on the fault.The values of permanent displacement on Haiyuan fault in different probabilistic levels are given by using the data of seismic geology and characteristics of seismic activity.The objective of this research is to determine the value of permanent displacement of causative faults in different probabilistic levels,which have the same probabilistic levels of strong ground motion claimed on the code for a seismic design of buildings and the code for a seismic design of oil and gas steel pipelines of China.Based on the results,the engineers may take measures of to resist the displacement in pipeline and long bridge engineering to minimize loss caused by earthquakes.
A probabilistic approach to evaluate permanent displacement of causative faults is presented based on engineering seismic risk analysis frame work of Cornell,of which the parameters includes the fault model,probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence,the relations among of earthquake magnitude with rupture length,width and surface displacement.The parameters can be determined or verified by results of geophysical prospecting,inversion of kinematics source,historical earthquake data,site investigations and fault dating.In engineering technical points of view,the method adopts two suppositions,one is that all the potential earthquake of fault around the field point contributes to the earquake motion while only the fault contributes to the permanent displacement of the analysis field point;the other is that permanent displacement origins from only a few strong earthquakes on the fault,rather than strong ground motion origins from all earthquakes on the fault.The values of permanent displacement on Haiyuan fault in different probabilistic levels are given by using the data of seismic geology and characteristics of seismic activity.The objective of this research is to determine the value of permanent displacement of causative faults in different probabilistic levels,which have the same probabilistic levels of strong ground motion claimed on the code for a seismic design of buildings and the code for a seismic design of oil and gas steel pipelines of China.Based on the results,the engineers may take measures of to resist the displacement in pipeline and long bridge engineering to minimize loss caused by earthquakes.
引文
[1]赵纪生,陶夏新,师黎静.地震地表破裂特征及其对应得分析方法[J].世界地震工程,2007,23(3):68-73.(ZHAO Jisheng,TAO Xiaxin,SHI Lijing.Characteristics of earthquake surface ruptures and related analytical methods[J].World Earthquake Engineering,2007,23(3):68-73.(in Chinese))
[2]ZHAO J S,TAO X X,SHI L J.An approach to evaluate ground surface rupture caused by reverse fault movement[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2006,5(1):27-39.
[3]赵纪生,陶夏新,师黎静.弹塑性固体中间断位移的刚性进化[J].岩土力学,2007,28(1):2254-2258.(ZHAO Jisheng,TAO Xiaxin,SHI Lijing.Rigid evolution of displacement jump on elastoplastic solids[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2007,28(1):2254-2258.(in Chinese))
[4]赵纪生,刘艳琼,师黎静,等.基于第四代地震区划的跨越发震断层永久位移概率分析方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,24(4):22-27.(ZHAO Jisheng,LIU Yanqiong,SHI Lijing,et al.A probabilistic approach to evaluate permanent displacement crossing fault by the4th generation seismic zoning map of China[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2008,24(4):22-27.(in Chinese))
[5]TODOROVSKA M I,TRIFUNAC M D,LEE V W.Shaking hazard compatible methodology for probabilistic assessment of permanent ground displacement across earthquake faults[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,2007,27(6):586-597.
[6]CORNELL C A.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1968,58(5):1583-1606.
[7]YOUNGS R R,ARABASZ W J,ANDERSON R E,et al.A methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis(PFDHA)[J].Earthquake Spectra,2003,19(1):191-219.
[8]中华人民共和国国家标准编写组.GB17741-2005工程场地地震安全性评价[M].北京:中国标准出版社,2005.(The National Standards Compilation Group of People′s Republic of China.GB17741-2005Evaluation of seismic safety for engineering sites[M].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2005.(in Chinese))
[9]中华人民共和国国家标准编写组.GB18306-2001中国地震动参数区划图[M].北京:中国标准出版社,2001.(The National Standards Compilation Group of People′s Republic of China.GB18306-2001Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China[M].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2001.(in Chinese))
[10]WELLS D L,COPPERSMITH K J.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1994,84(4):974-1002.
[11]LEE V W,TRIFUNAC M D,TODOROVSKA M I,et al.Empirical equations describing attenuation of the peaks of strong ground motion,in terms of magnitude,distance,path effects and site conditions.Report No.CE95-02[R].Los Angeles:Department of Civil Engineering,University of Southern California,1995.
[12]HEMPHILL-HALEY M A,WELDON R J.Estimating prehistoric earthquake magnitude from point measurements of surface rupture[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1999,89(5):1264-1279.
[13]俞言祥,汪素云.中国东部和西部地区水平向基岩加速度反应谱衰减关系[J].震灾防御技术,2006,1(3):206-217.(YU Yanxiang,WANG Suyun.Attenuation relations for horizontal peak ground acceleration and response spectrum in eastern and western China[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2006,1(3):206-217.(in Chinese))
[14]郭增建,马宗晋.中国特大地震研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1988.(GUO Zengjian,MA Zongjin.Study on strong earthquakes in China[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1988.(in Chinese))
[15]国家地震局科技发展司.中国近代地震目录(MS≥4.7,公元1912～1990年)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999.(Office of Science and Technology,China Seismological Bureau.Catalogue of Chinese earthquakes(1912-1990,MS≥4.7)[M].Beijing:Chinese Science and Technology Press,1999.(in Chinese))
[16]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪～公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.(Department of Seismic Hazard Prevention,China Seismological Bureau.Catalogue of Chinese earthquakes(2300B.C.-1911A.D.)[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1995.(in Chinese))
[2]ZHAO J S,TAO X X,SHI L J.An approach to evaluate ground surface rupture caused by reverse fault movement[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2006,5(1):27-39.
[3]赵纪生,陶夏新,师黎静.弹塑性固体中间断位移的刚性进化[J].岩土力学,2007,28(1):2254-2258.(ZHAO Jisheng,TAO Xiaxin,SHI Lijing.Rigid evolution of displacement jump on elastoplastic solids[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2007,28(1):2254-2258.(in Chinese))
[4]赵纪生,刘艳琼,师黎静,等.基于第四代地震区划的跨越发震断层永久位移概率分析方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,24(4):22-27.(ZHAO Jisheng,LIU Yanqiong,SHI Lijing,et al.A probabilistic approach to evaluate permanent displacement crossing fault by the4th generation seismic zoning map of China[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2008,24(4):22-27.(in Chinese))
[5]TODOROVSKA M I,TRIFUNAC M D,LEE V W.Shaking hazard compatible methodology for probabilistic assessment of permanent ground displacement across earthquake faults[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,2007,27(6):586-597.
[6]CORNELL C A.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1968,58(5):1583-1606.
[7]YOUNGS R R,ARABASZ W J,ANDERSON R E,et al.A methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis(PFDHA)[J].Earthquake Spectra,2003,19(1):191-219.
[8]中华人民共和国国家标准编写组.GB17741-2005工程场地地震安全性评价[M].北京:中国标准出版社,2005.(The National Standards Compilation Group of People′s Republic of China.GB17741-2005Evaluation of seismic safety for engineering sites[M].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2005.(in Chinese))
[9]中华人民共和国国家标准编写组.GB18306-2001中国地震动参数区划图[M].北京:中国标准出版社,2001.(The National Standards Compilation Group of People′s Republic of China.GB18306-2001Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China[M].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2001.(in Chinese))
[10]WELLS D L,COPPERSMITH K J.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1994,84(4):974-1002.
[11]LEE V W,TRIFUNAC M D,TODOROVSKA M I,et al.Empirical equations describing attenuation of the peaks of strong ground motion,in terms of magnitude,distance,path effects and site conditions.Report No.CE95-02[R].Los Angeles:Department of Civil Engineering,University of Southern California,1995.
[12]HEMPHILL-HALEY M A,WELDON R J.Estimating prehistoric earthquake magnitude from point measurements of surface rupture[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1999,89(5):1264-1279.
[13]俞言祥,汪素云.中国东部和西部地区水平向基岩加速度反应谱衰减关系[J].震灾防御技术,2006,1(3):206-217.(YU Yanxiang,WANG Suyun.Attenuation relations for horizontal peak ground acceleration and response spectrum in eastern and western China[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2006,1(3):206-217.(in Chinese))
[14]郭增建,马宗晋.中国特大地震研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1988.(GUO Zengjian,MA Zongjin.Study on strong earthquakes in China[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1988.(in Chinese))
[15]国家地震局科技发展司.中国近代地震目录(MS≥4.7,公元1912～1990年)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999.(Office of Science and Technology,China Seismological Bureau.Catalogue of Chinese earthquakes(1912-1990,MS≥4.7)[M].Beijing:Chinese Science and Technology Press,1999.(in Chinese))
[16]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪～公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.(Department of Seismic Hazard Prevention,China Seismological Bureau.Catalogue of Chinese earthquakes(2300B.C.-1911A.D.)[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1995.(in Chinese))
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