滇西地区前兆观测资料的分类、分级与强震关系研究
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摘要
采用两种方式对1990年以来滇西地区前兆台网观测资料的质量进行了分类、分级判别。第一种方式是根据各测项资料数据波动变化的程度,按A、B、C三类定性地划分资料的优劣程度,然后对各类资料的质量及地震预报能力进行分析研究;第二种方式是采用多种前兆异常提取方法对观测资料进行分析、处理,提取异常指标,根据各资料异常指标的映震效能,按A、B、C三个档次判定其优劣。研究结果表明,这两种方式得到的结果大致相同:(1)地形变和水位的观测资料质量最好,多为A类,具有较强的6级以上地震前兆信息;(2)水氡和水温观测资料质量一般,为B类,其异常信息主要对应5级地震,对6级以上地震的反应较迟钝;(3)水质、地磁、地电观测资料质量最差,为C类,但主要显示6级以上地震的异常信息。
We used two methods to study the classification and grade of the precursor data in West Yunnan since 1990.First,we qualitatively classified the precursor data as three types(A,B and C)according to the variation degree of the data,and analyzed their prediction ability by the grades.Second,we picked up the anomaly indexes of the precursor data using multifarious methods,and graded the data into three types(A,B and C)according to the prediction efficiency of the anomaly indexes.The results of two methods show to be approximate:(1)The quality of ground deformation and water level data is the best.Most of them are in Type A and they include more precursory information of M≥6 earthquakes.(2)The quality of water radon and water temperature is common.Most of them are in Type B and they mainly show the precursors of M≥5 earthquakes.(3)The quality of hydrochemistry,geomagnetic and geo-electricity is bad.Most of them are in Type C,but their precursors are mainly from M≥6 earthquakes.
We used two methods to study the classification and grade of the precursor data in West Yunnan since 1990.First,we qualitatively classified the precursor data as three types(A,B and C)according to the variation degree of the data,and analyzed their prediction ability by the grades.Second,we picked up the anomaly indexes of the precursor data using multifarious methods,and graded the data into three types(A,B and C)according to the prediction efficiency of the anomaly indexes.The results of two methods show to be approximate:(1)The quality of ground deformation and water level data is the best.Most of them are in Type A and they include more precursory information of M≥6 earthquakes.(2)The quality of water radon and water temperature is common.Most of them are in Type B and they mainly show the precursors of M≥5 earthquakes.(3)The quality of hydrochemistry,geomagnetic and geo-electricity is bad.Most of them are in Type C,but their precursors are mainly from M≥6 earthquakes.
引文
虢顺民,韩源,李祥根,等.1990.滇西北地区活动断裂[M].北京:地震出版社:69-124.
刘祖荫,李宣瑚,秦嘉政,等.1996滇西地震预报实验研究论文集[M].北京:地震出版社:39-550.
梅世蓉.1993.地震科学研究论文选集[M].北京:地震出版社
刘祖荫,李宣瑚,秦嘉政,等.1996滇西地震预报实验研究论文集[M].北京:地震出版社:39-550.
梅世蓉.1993.地震科学研究论文选集[M].北京:地震出版社
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