从水位观测数据中排除非构造因素影响的状态空间分析方法
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摘要
为了更有效地利用地下水位观测数据开展地震预测,需要排除其它因素对地下水位的干扰。降雨、气压和潮汐是影响地下水位的3个重要的非构造应力因素,对此建立状态空间模型以提取与地震有关的水文异常。这个模型把观测到的地下水位时间序列分解为气压响应、潮汐响应、降雨响应、噪声因子和水位残差5个因子,运用状态空间分析方法,从地下水位的实际观测数据中分解出气压、潮汐和降雨等主要的非构造因素对地下水位的影响,从而得到构造应力影响下的地下水位数据,以便于提取与地震活动有关的异常信息。
To make full use of observation data,get rid of interference factors, we build a state space model to extract the hydrology abnormal that relevant to the earthquake.This method can decompose observed groundwater level into five components: atmospheric pressure,tidal,precipitation responses,observation noise,and residual water level.Using state space analysis method,we could obtain the water lever data in the Non-tectonic stress affects,and then,find the law of earthquake evolution through analysis the relations between the trend of the new water lever data and the earthquake activity.
To make full use of observation data,get rid of interference factors, we build a state space model to extract the hydrology abnormal that relevant to the earthquake.This method can decompose observed groundwater level into five components: atmospheric pressure,tidal,precipitation responses,observation noise,and residual water level.Using state space analysis method,we could obtain the water lever data in the Non-tectonic stress affects,and then,find the law of earthquake evolution through analysis the relations between the trend of the new water lever data and the earthquake activity.
引文
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[7]张昭栋,郑金涵,冯初刚.深井水位的固体潮效应[J].地震学报,1991,13(1):66-75.
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[9]张昭栋,耿杰,高玉斌,等.计算井水位对固体潮和气压滞后响应的新方法[J].华南地震,1993,13(3):16-21.
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[13]苗敬毅.关于状态空间方法中状态空间模型的札记[J].山西经济管理干部学院学报,2001,9(4):44-46.
[2]Bodvarsson G..Confined fluids as strain meter[J].Geophys,1970,(75):2 711-2 718.
[3]Roeloffs EA.Hydrologic precursors to earthquake:a review[J].Geophys,1988,(126):177-206.
[4]Quilty E.G.&Roeloffs,E.A.Removal of barometric pressure response from water level data[J].geophys,1991,(96),10 209-10 218.
[5]Igarashi G.,Wakita H.Tidal responses and earthquake-related changes in the water level of deep wells[J].Geophys,1991,(96):4 269-4 278.
[6]Matsumoto N.,Takahashi M.Time series analysis for detecting changes of ground water level due to earthquakes at Hamaoka observation well,Shizuoka Prefecture,central Japan[J].Zisin-(J.Seism.Soc.Japan)2nd series,1993,(45):407-415(in Japanese with English abstract).
[7]张昭栋,郑金涵,冯初刚.深井水位的固体潮效应[J].地震学报,1991,13(1):66-75.
[8]张昭栋,郑金涵,张广城,等.承压井水位对气压动态过程的响应[J].地球物理学报,1989,32(5):539-549.
[9]张昭栋,耿杰,高玉斌,等.计算井水位对固体潮和气压滞后响应的新方法[J].华南地震,1993,13(3):16-21.
[10]国家地震局地下水影响因素研究组.地震地下水动态及其影响因素分析[M].北京:地震出版社,1985.
[11]国家地震局预测预防司.地下流体地震预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997.
[12]车用太.地下水动态映震理论与预报地震方法[J].地震,1990,12(6):19-25.
[13]苗敬毅.关于状态空间方法中状态空间模型的札记[J].山西经济管理干部学院学报,2001,9(4):44-46.
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