PI算法用于川滇-安达曼-苏门答腊地区7.0级以上强震危险性预测的回溯性检验
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摘要
作为一个中长期地震预测方法,基于复杂系统统计物理的图象信息学PI算法近年来广受关注.针对7级以上强震成组和突发交替的川滇地区,考虑将与其构造和地震活动关系密切,且强震频发的安达曼-苏门答腊地区作为统一的强震预测研究区,使用PI算法进行MW7.0及以上预测"目标震级"的地震危险性分析.计算中使用了1973年以来的NEIC目录,采用10年尺度的地震活动"异常学习"时段和3年尺度"预测时间窗",对预测效果进行了ROC检验.回溯性研究显示,PI算法预测效果较好,表明将川滇-安达曼-苏门答腊地区作为统一的7级以上强震PI算法预测研究区在统计上具有合理性.从统计物理角度,研究区组合前后的各态遍历性曲线显示,组合后的研究区对PI算法的适用程度虽不优于单独考虑川滇地区,但优于安达曼-苏门答腊地区.PI预测图象显示,2008年汶川地震前可能存在中长期尺度的"前兆性"地震活动异常.
Pattern Informatics(PI)algorithm,a recently developed predictive algorithm based on the statistical physics of complex systems,has caused much attention in the study of earthquake predictability and time-dependent seismic hazard assesment.This paper applied the PI algorithm to the Sichuan-Yunnan region of southwest China,where strong earthquakes show complicated pattern,considering the tectonically correlated and active Andaman-Sumatra region and aiming at the forecast of 'target earthquakes' no less than MW7.0.NEIC catalogue since 1973 was used,with 'anomaly training time window' being 10 years and 'forecast time window' being 3 years,respectively.ROC test was used for evaluating the performance of the forecasts.Retrospective forecast test shows positive evidence for the application of PI algorithm to this region,and also indicates that considering the connection between the Sichuan-Yunnan region and the Andaman-Sumatra region is reasonable in the calculation.In the perspective of statistical physics,ergodicity shown by seismicity gets significantly improved for the Andaman-Sumatra region when the combination with the Sichuan-Yunnan region is considered,with an acceptable sacrifice of the ergodicity for the later.Hot spot picture given by PI algorithm shows some 'precursory' intermediate-term anomaly before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.
Pattern Informatics(PI)algorithm,a recently developed predictive algorithm based on the statistical physics of complex systems,has caused much attention in the study of earthquake predictability and time-dependent seismic hazard assesment.This paper applied the PI algorithm to the Sichuan-Yunnan region of southwest China,where strong earthquakes show complicated pattern,considering the tectonically correlated and active Andaman-Sumatra region and aiming at the forecast of 'target earthquakes' no less than MW7.0.NEIC catalogue since 1973 was used,with 'anomaly training time window' being 10 years and 'forecast time window' being 3 years,respectively.ROC test was used for evaluating the performance of the forecasts.Retrospective forecast test shows positive evidence for the application of PI algorithm to this region,and also indicates that considering the connection between the Sichuan-Yunnan region and the Andaman-Sumatra region is reasonable in the calculation.In the perspective of statistical physics,ergodicity shown by seismicity gets significantly improved for the Andaman-Sumatra region when the combination with the Sichuan-Yunnan region is considered,with an acceptable sacrifice of the ergodicity for the later.Hot spot picture given by PI algorithm shows some 'precursory' intermediate-term anomaly before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.
引文
邓起东,张培震,冉勇康,杨晓平,闵伟,陈立春.2003.中国活动构造与地震活动[J].地学前缘,10(Sl):66--73.
付虹,刘强,邬成栋,王永安,吴小平.2007.印尼8.7、8.5级远震对云南地区小震的激发和地下流体异常响应初探[J].地震研究,30(1):8--13.
韩渭宾,蒋国芳.2006.川滇地区较长时间尺度的地震活动盛衰交替性[J].地震,26(1):51--57.
蒋长胜,吴忠良.2008.对地震预测的一个统计物理算法在川滇地区的回溯性预测检验[J].中国科学(D),38(7):852--861.
刘瑞丰,陈运泰,Perter Bormann,任枭,侯建民,邹立晔,杨辉.2006.中国地震台网与美国地震台网测定震级的对比(Ⅱ):面波震级[J].地震学报,28(1):1--7.
马宗晋,叶洪.2005.2004年12月26日苏门答腊-安达曼大地震构造特征及地震海啸灾害[J].地学前缘,12(1):281--287.
石耀霖,刘杰,张国民.2000.对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,17(1):63--69.
史勇军,吴忠良,白玲,蒋长胜,蔡明军.2003.位于预测区边界附近的地震统计检验问题[J].中国地震,19(4):351--357.
吴忠良,陈运泰.2002.地震预测与统计物理[J].物理,31(6):365--371.
徐锡伟,张培震,闻学泽,秦尊丽,陈桂华,朱艾斓.2005.川西及其邻近地区活动构造基本特征与强震复发模型[J].地震地质,27(3):446--461.
杨国华,江在森,王敏,张祖胜,刘广余,韩月萍,丁平,龚平.2006.印尼地震对我国川滇地区地壳水平活动的影响[J].大地测量与地球动力学,26(1):9--20.
易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.2002.川滇地区若干活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征研究[J].中国地震,18(3):267--276.
张国民,张晓东,刘杰,刘耀炜,田勤俭,郝平,马宏生,焦明若.2005.印尼苏门答腊8.7级大震对中国陆区的影响[J].地震,25(4):15--25.
Chen C C,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,Nanjo KZ,Turcotte D L,Li S C,Tiampo KF.2005.The1999Chi-Chi,Tai wan,earthquake as a typical example of seismic activation and quiescence[J].Geophys Res Lett,32:L22315,doi:10.1029/2005GL023991.
Ferguson C D,Klein W,Rundle J B.1999.Spinodals,scaling,and ergodicityin a threshold model withlong-range stresstransfer[J].Phys Rev E,60:1359--1373.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1956.Magnitude and energy of earthquake[J].Annali di Geofisica,9:1--15.
Hanks T C,Kanamori H.1979.A moment magnitude scale[J].J Geophys Res,84(B5):2348--2350.
Holliday J R,Chen C C,Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,Turcotte D L,Donnellan A.2007.A RELMearthquake forecastbased on patterninformatics[J].SeismRes Lett,78:87--93.
Holliday J R,Nanjo KZ,Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,Turcotte D L.2005.Earthquake forecasting andits verification[J].Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,12:965--977.
Holliday J R,Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,Klein W,Donnellan A.2006.Modification of the patterninformatics methodforforecasting large earthquake events using complex eigenfactors[J].Tectonophysics,413:87--91.
Johnston A C.1996.Seismic moment assessment of earthquakesin stable continental regions:Ⅰ.Instrumental seismici-ty[J].Geophys J Int,124:381--414.
Kanamori H.1977.The energy release in great earthquake[J].J Geophys Res,82:2981--2987.
Klein W,Rundle J B,Ferguson,C D.1997.Scaling and nucleationin models of earthquake faults[J].Phys Rev Lett,78:3793--3796.
Molchan G M.1997.Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem[J].Pure Appl Geophys,149:233--247.
Nanjo K Z,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,Turcotte D,L.2006.Patterninformatics andits application for optimal forecas-ting of large earthquakes in Japan[J].Pure Appl Geophys,163:2417--2432.
Rundle J B,Klein W,Gross S,Turcotte D L.1995.Boltzman fluctuations in numerical simulations of non-equilibriumlattice threshold systems[J].Phys Rev Lett,75:1658--1661.
Rundle J B,Klein W,Turcotte D L,Malamud B D.2000.Precursory seismic activation and critical-point phenomena[J].Pure Appl Geophys,157:2165--2182.
Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,Klein W,Martins J S Sá.2002.Self-organizationinleaky threshold systems:Theinfluence ofnear meanfield dynamics anditsimplications for earthquakes,neurobiology,andforecasting[J].Proc Natl Acad SciU S A,99:2514--2521.
Rundle J B,Turcotte D L,Shcherbakov R,Klein W,Sammis C.2003.Statistical physics approachto understanding themultiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems[J].Rev Geophys,41:1019,doi:10.1029/2003RG000135.
Swets J A.1973.The relative operating characteristic in psychology[J].Science,182:990--1000.
Thirumalai D,Mountain R D,Kirkpatrick T R.1989.Ergodic behavior in supercooled liquids and in glasses[J].PhysRev A,39:3563--3574.
Thirumalai D,Mountain R D.1993.Activated dynamics,loss of ergodicity,and transport in supercooled liquids[J].Phys Rev E,47:479--489.
Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,McGinnis S,Gross SJ,Klein W.2002.Mean-fieldthreshold systems and phase dynamics:Anapplication to earthquake fault systems[J].Europhys Lett,60:481--487.
Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,Klein W,Martins J S Sá.2004.Ergodicityin natural fault systems[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161:1957--1968.
Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,Klein W,Holliday J,Martins J S Sá,Ferguson C D.2007.Ergodicity in natural earthquakefault networks[J].Phys Rev E,75:066107,doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.75.066107.
付虹,刘强,邬成栋,王永安,吴小平.2007.印尼8.7、8.5级远震对云南地区小震的激发和地下流体异常响应初探[J].地震研究,30(1):8--13.
韩渭宾,蒋国芳.2006.川滇地区较长时间尺度的地震活动盛衰交替性[J].地震,26(1):51--57.
蒋长胜,吴忠良.2008.对地震预测的一个统计物理算法在川滇地区的回溯性预测检验[J].中国科学(D),38(7):852--861.
刘瑞丰,陈运泰,Perter Bormann,任枭,侯建民,邹立晔,杨辉.2006.中国地震台网与美国地震台网测定震级的对比(Ⅱ):面波震级[J].地震学报,28(1):1--7.
马宗晋,叶洪.2005.2004年12月26日苏门答腊-安达曼大地震构造特征及地震海啸灾害[J].地学前缘,12(1):281--287.
石耀霖,刘杰,张国民.2000.对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,17(1):63--69.
史勇军,吴忠良,白玲,蒋长胜,蔡明军.2003.位于预测区边界附近的地震统计检验问题[J].中国地震,19(4):351--357.
吴忠良,陈运泰.2002.地震预测与统计物理[J].物理,31(6):365--371.
徐锡伟,张培震,闻学泽,秦尊丽,陈桂华,朱艾斓.2005.川西及其邻近地区活动构造基本特征与强震复发模型[J].地震地质,27(3):446--461.
杨国华,江在森,王敏,张祖胜,刘广余,韩月萍,丁平,龚平.2006.印尼地震对我国川滇地区地壳水平活动的影响[J].大地测量与地球动力学,26(1):9--20.
易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.2002.川滇地区若干活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征研究[J].中国地震,18(3):267--276.
张国民,张晓东,刘杰,刘耀炜,田勤俭,郝平,马宏生,焦明若.2005.印尼苏门答腊8.7级大震对中国陆区的影响[J].地震,25(4):15--25.
Chen C C,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,Nanjo KZ,Turcotte D L,Li S C,Tiampo KF.2005.The1999Chi-Chi,Tai wan,earthquake as a typical example of seismic activation and quiescence[J].Geophys Res Lett,32:L22315,doi:10.1029/2005GL023991.
Ferguson C D,Klein W,Rundle J B.1999.Spinodals,scaling,and ergodicityin a threshold model withlong-range stresstransfer[J].Phys Rev E,60:1359--1373.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1956.Magnitude and energy of earthquake[J].Annali di Geofisica,9:1--15.
Hanks T C,Kanamori H.1979.A moment magnitude scale[J].J Geophys Res,84(B5):2348--2350.
Holliday J R,Chen C C,Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,Turcotte D L,Donnellan A.2007.A RELMearthquake forecastbased on patterninformatics[J].SeismRes Lett,78:87--93.
Holliday J R,Nanjo KZ,Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,Turcotte D L.2005.Earthquake forecasting andits verification[J].Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,12:965--977.
Holliday J R,Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,Klein W,Donnellan A.2006.Modification of the patterninformatics methodforforecasting large earthquake events using complex eigenfactors[J].Tectonophysics,413:87--91.
Johnston A C.1996.Seismic moment assessment of earthquakesin stable continental regions:Ⅰ.Instrumental seismici-ty[J].Geophys J Int,124:381--414.
Kanamori H.1977.The energy release in great earthquake[J].J Geophys Res,82:2981--2987.
Klein W,Rundle J B,Ferguson,C D.1997.Scaling and nucleationin models of earthquake faults[J].Phys Rev Lett,78:3793--3796.
Molchan G M.1997.Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem[J].Pure Appl Geophys,149:233--247.
Nanjo K Z,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,Turcotte D,L.2006.Patterninformatics andits application for optimal forecas-ting of large earthquakes in Japan[J].Pure Appl Geophys,163:2417--2432.
Rundle J B,Klein W,Gross S,Turcotte D L.1995.Boltzman fluctuations in numerical simulations of non-equilibriumlattice threshold systems[J].Phys Rev Lett,75:1658--1661.
Rundle J B,Klein W,Turcotte D L,Malamud B D.2000.Precursory seismic activation and critical-point phenomena[J].Pure Appl Geophys,157:2165--2182.
Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,Klein W,Martins J S Sá.2002.Self-organizationinleaky threshold systems:Theinfluence ofnear meanfield dynamics anditsimplications for earthquakes,neurobiology,andforecasting[J].Proc Natl Acad SciU S A,99:2514--2521.
Rundle J B,Turcotte D L,Shcherbakov R,Klein W,Sammis C.2003.Statistical physics approachto understanding themultiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems[J].Rev Geophys,41:1019,doi:10.1029/2003RG000135.
Swets J A.1973.The relative operating characteristic in psychology[J].Science,182:990--1000.
Thirumalai D,Mountain R D,Kirkpatrick T R.1989.Ergodic behavior in supercooled liquids and in glasses[J].PhysRev A,39:3563--3574.
Thirumalai D,Mountain R D.1993.Activated dynamics,loss of ergodicity,and transport in supercooled liquids[J].Phys Rev E,47:479--489.
Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,McGinnis S,Gross SJ,Klein W.2002.Mean-fieldthreshold systems and phase dynamics:Anapplication to earthquake fault systems[J].Europhys Lett,60:481--487.
Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,Klein W,Martins J S Sá.2004.Ergodicityin natural fault systems[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161:1957--1968.
Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,Klein W,Holliday J,Martins J S Sá,Ferguson C D.2007.Ergodicity in natural earthquakefault networks[J].Phys Rev E,75:066107,doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.75.066107.
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