滇9井水温在5.0级以上近震前的异常动态特征
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摘要
对滇9井水温观测资料的日均值动态变化、30天滑动均值动态变化和残差滑动均值动态变化进行了研究。结果表明:水温日均值动态变化在距该井40km范围内≥5.0级中强地方震前,具有异常幅度较大、映震时间极短的显著临震特征;水温30天滑动均值连续上升动态变化在距该井500km范围内≥5.0级中强近震前,具有异常幅度显著、映震时间多数在3个月内的短临特征;水温30天滑动均值连续下降动态变化在距该井250～450km范围内≥6.0级中强近震前,具有异常幅度大、映震强度大、时间稍长的中期特征。因此,滇9井水温动态变化异常对中短临预报效果明显,特别是水温日均值动态变化异常具有地方震临震指示意义,对实现临震预报有一定的实践意义。
The relationships between the local earthquakes and the anomaly changes of the average daily value,30-day moving average value,moving residual error of the water temperature observed from the No.9well in Yunnan were studied in this paper.Firstly,there is an obvious correspondence between the average daily value anomalies of the water temperature in this well and the occurrence of the earthquakes within 40km.It usually appears bigger anomaly amplitude and with shorter time interval as a sign of the impending earthquake;Secondly,the ascending 30-day moving average value anomalies apparently related to the earthquakes of M≥5.0within 500km during 3months.Thirdly,the descending 30-day moving average value anomalies mean the occurrences of the earthquakes of M≥6.0 within 250～450km and show medium-term anomaly feature.Therefore,the anomalies of the water temperature in No.9well in Yunnan could be useful for earthquake prediction,especially its average daily value anomaly may be helpful in imminent earthquake prediction for local events.
The relationships between the local earthquakes and the anomaly changes of the average daily value,30-day moving average value,moving residual error of the water temperature observed from the No.9well in Yunnan were studied in this paper.Firstly,there is an obvious correspondence between the average daily value anomalies of the water temperature in this well and the occurrence of the earthquakes within 40km.It usually appears bigger anomaly amplitude and with shorter time interval as a sign of the impending earthquake;Secondly,the ascending 30-day moving average value anomalies apparently related to the earthquakes of M≥5.0within 500km during 3months.Thirdly,the descending 30-day moving average value anomalies mean the occurrences of the earthquakes of M≥6.0 within 250～450km and show medium-term anomaly feature.Therefore,the anomalies of the water temperature in No.9well in Yunnan could be useful for earthquake prediction,especially its average daily value anomaly may be helpful in imminent earthquake prediction for local events.
引文
[1][苏]巴尔苏可夫,瓦尔沙尔.水文地球化学方法在地震短期预报中的作用//地震水文地球化学前兆.北京:地震出版社,1989
[2]赵家本.滇9井在中强地方震前的地下流体动态特征.地震研究,2004,27(1):30-36
[3]万迪堃,汪成民,李建成,等.地下水动态震例剖析与短临预报方法研究//中国地震预报方法研究.北京:地震出版社,1991
[2]赵家本.滇9井在中强地方震前的地下流体动态特征.地震研究,2004,27(1):30-36
[3]万迪堃,汪成民,李建成,等.地下水动态震例剖析与短临预报方法研究//中国地震预报方法研究.北京:地震出版社,1991
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