地震预测预报能与不能的争论
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摘要
对破坏力巨大的地震的预测、预报,既是地震理论上的难题,也是技术上、实践上和政治政策上的难题。在我国曾有过成功的经验,但也有人为因素不能回避的惨痛的教训。在学术上存在着地震不可预测预报与地震可预测预报的尖锐争论,而这种争论又因为掺杂了政治上的因素而变得更加微妙、复杂、纠缠不清和难以深入,也制约着防震减灾事业的发展。地震不可预测预报论是目前的主流观点。不可预测预报论与可预测预报论的学术立场分歧也必然延伸到人们的防震减灾的社会实践当中。六十余年来,可预测预报论者积极进行预测预报上的学术创新,先后诞生过李四光的地质力学理论、翁文波的信息预测理论和天灾预测法、耿庆国的旱震关系理论、钱复业等的"潮汐力谐振共振短临前兆模型"、钱学森的"开放的复杂巨系统论"与"定性与定量的综合集成法"等等理论和技术成果。可预测预报论突破传统科学的还原论思维模式,积极发展现代系统论的思维模式,并挖掘中国古代传统科学中的一些要素和整理利用中国古代积累下来的对自然灾变观测的丰富资料,进行理论创新,并在地震预测预报实践中取得了一定的成效,但目前仍然克服不了种种理论的批判和质疑。尽管如此,可预测预报论者仍坚信如果能更好地克服思想上、体制上的障碍,中国地震预测预报科学研究工作者能创新出一种"半经验半理论的系统科学方法"的地震预测预报理论,在该领域为人类的科学进步事业做出巨大贡献。
The prediction and forecast of massive destructive earthquakes are not only a problem in earthquake theory,but also that in technique,practice and political policy.There have been in China successful experiences and unavoidable agonizing lessons due to human factors.Academically,the disputes exist on the capability or incapability for earthquake predication,which have become more complicated,subtle and entangled with the involvement of political factors,and which restrict the development of the course of quake-prevention and disaster-reduction.The mainstream viewpoint is currently of incapability to predict earthquakes.The academic differences between the two viewpoints inevitably extend to social practice in quake-prevention and disaster-reduction.During over sixty years,those in favor of prediction have made academic innovation actively and contributed a number of theories and technical achievements on the prediction,producing in a succession the theory of geological mechanics by Li Siguang,the informational prediction theory and natural disaster prediction methods by Weng Wenbo,the drought relative theory by Geng Qing-guo,"Short-Impending Anomaly Precursory Mode with Resonance Tidal Forces" by Qian Fuye et al.,the "Theory of Open Complex Giant System" and "The Qualitative and Quantitative Comprehensive Integration Means" by Qian Xuesen.By breakthrough from the thinking mode of traditional reductionism the predicable theories actively develop the thinking mode of modern system theory,and probe into the elements of Chinese traditional sciences conforming and utilizing the rich data accumulated since ancient times in China on observation of natural disasters.Some progresses have been made in theoretical innovation and earthquake prediction practice,although various existing theoretical criticisms and challenges still cannot be overcome.In spite of these,those in favor of prediction still firmly believe that by better overcome obstacles in thoughts and in system,Chinese earthquake scientists are capable of producing an "experience plus theory" method in system science for earthquake prediction,to make great contribution in this field for the progressive course of human science.
The prediction and forecast of massive destructive earthquakes are not only a problem in earthquake theory,but also that in technique,practice and political policy.There have been in China successful experiences and unavoidable agonizing lessons due to human factors.Academically,the disputes exist on the capability or incapability for earthquake predication,which have become more complicated,subtle and entangled with the involvement of political factors,and which restrict the development of the course of quake-prevention and disaster-reduction.The mainstream viewpoint is currently of incapability to predict earthquakes.The academic differences between the two viewpoints inevitably extend to social practice in quake-prevention and disaster-reduction.During over sixty years,those in favor of prediction have made academic innovation actively and contributed a number of theories and technical achievements on the prediction,producing in a succession the theory of geological mechanics by Li Siguang,the informational prediction theory and natural disaster prediction methods by Weng Wenbo,the drought relative theory by Geng Qing-guo,"Short-Impending Anomaly Precursory Mode with Resonance Tidal Forces" by Qian Fuye et al.,the "Theory of Open Complex Giant System" and "The Qualitative and Quantitative Comprehensive Integration Means" by Qian Xuesen.By breakthrough from the thinking mode of traditional reductionism the predicable theories actively develop the thinking mode of modern system theory,and probe into the elements of Chinese traditional sciences conforming and utilizing the rich data accumulated since ancient times in China on observation of natural disasters.Some progresses have been made in theoretical innovation and earthquake prediction practice,although various existing theoretical criticisms and challenges still cannot be overcome.In spite of these,those in favor of prediction still firmly believe that by better overcome obstacles in thoughts and in system,Chinese earthquake scientists are capable of producing an "experience plus theory" method in system science for earthquake prediction,to make great contribution in this field for the progressive course of human science.
引文
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[2]方舟子.地震预测的梦想与现实[N].中国青年报,2008-05-28
[3]徐道一.中国地震预测研究的战略特色[C]//辽宁省地震局,中国地震局.纪念海城地震三十周年文集.沈阳:中新出版社.2006.
[4]王中宇.地震预报,路在何方?[N].科学时报2,008-06-10.
[5]张庆洲.唐山警世录[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2006.
[6]梅世蓉.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.
[7]伊.普里戈金,伊.斯唐热.从混沌到有序:人与自然的新对话[M].曾庆红,沈小峰,译.上海:上海译文出版社1,987.
[8]赫尔曼.哈肯.协同学:大自然构成的奥秘[M].凌复华,译.上海:上海译文出版社,1995.
[9]宋正海,孙关龙.总论[C]//宋正海,孙关龙.中国传统文化与现代科学技术.杭州:浙江教育出版社,1999.
[10]钱学森,于景元,戴汝为.一个科学新领域——开放的复杂巨系统及其方法论[J].自然杂志,1990(1).
[11]马宗晋,张进,王国权,等.地球到底怎么了[J].科学中国人,2001(4).
[12]许国志.系统科学[M].上海:上海科技教育出版社,2000.
[13]А.Я.Лернер.控制论基础[M].刘定一,译.北京:科学出版社,1983.
[14]贺仲雄.模糊数学及其应用[M].天津:天津科学技术出版社,1985.
[15]苗东升.系统科学精要[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1998.
[16]王士舫,董自励.科学技术发展简史[M].北京:北京大学出版社1,997.
[17]冯.贝塔朗菲.一般系统论:基础、发展和应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社1,987.
[18]王寿云.科学与经验相结合的作战模拟研究途径[J].军事系统工程1,988(1).
[19]苗东升.灾害研究与复杂性科学[J].河池学院学报,2009(1).
[20]马克思恩格斯选集(第1卷)[M].北京:人民出版社1,995.
[21]艾什比.大脑设计[M].乐秀成,译.北京:商务印书馆,1991.
[22]汪成民.对汶川大震的预测存在两种尖锐对立的意见[J].地震预测咨询通讯2,008(3).
[23]王志明.当代预测宗师[M].北京:中国文学出版社,1994.
[24]徐道一,王明太,耿庆国,等.翁文波院士的信息预测理论体系的创新性及其意义[J].地球物理学进展2,007(4).
[25]龙小霞,延军平,孙虎,等.基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J].灾害学,2006(3).
[26]耿庆国.对2008年5月12日汶川巨震预测过程的简略回顾[C]//中国地球物理学会.中国地球物理2008.北京:中国大地出版社2,008.
[27]卫一清,丁国瑜.当代中国的地震事业[M].北京:当代中国出版社1,993.
[28]耿庆国.关于短期临震气象要素五项指标异常(续篇)[C]//中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会.唐山大地震三十周年纪念文集2,006.
[29]地震局地质研究所所长称汶川震前未发现前兆异常[N].新京报2,008-06-27.
[30]汪成民.我们成功预测了汶川三次强余震[J].地震预测咨询通讯2,009(3).
[31]周光亚.我国爆炸第一颗原子弹前后[C]//中共中央文献研究室.不尽的思念.北京:中央文献出版社,1987.
[32]钱复业,赵璧如,钱卫,等.汶川8.0级地震HRT波地震短临波动前兆及HRT波地震短临预测方法——关于实现强震短临预测可能性的讨论[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学2,009(1).
[33]任振球.突发性特大自然灾害出发因子的发现及其物理研究方案[J].中国工程科学,2004(12).
[34]姜岩.多种路径探索地震前兆[N].北京日报,2008-06-25.
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