强震人员损失回归预测方法
|
摘要
在回顾近年对地震人员损失预测的研究工作的基础上,根据USGS的PAGER系统中地震人员损失回归模型,利用发生在1970-2008年间的128条地震现场调查灾害记录建立了我国东、西部区域适用的地震人员损失预测模型;并利用发生在1980-2007年间的234条地震损失记录建立了地震人员重伤数与人员死亡数的回归关系;最后利用模型对2008年四川汶川地震的人员损失进行评估计算,得到了与实际震害损失相接近的评估结果。
Based on the review of researches on several models for earthquake casualty estimation in recent years,according to the empirical estimation model of PAGER system which is released by USGS in October,2007,two regional applicable earthquake casualty estimation models are developed using the loss records of 128 earthquakes from 1970 to 2008 in China.And using 234 earthquakes occurred from 1980 to 2007,a linear regression relationship between the number of the seriously injured and the number of death caused by earthquakes is established.At last,by comparing the estimation of casualty using the models with the actual number of victims in 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,it is proved that the model can make approximate estimation.
Based on the review of researches on several models for earthquake casualty estimation in recent years,according to the empirical estimation model of PAGER system which is released by USGS in October,2007,two regional applicable earthquake casualty estimation models are developed using the loss records of 128 earthquakes from 1970 to 2008 in China.And using 234 earthquakes occurred from 1980 to 2007,a linear regression relationship between the number of the seriously injured and the number of death caused by earthquakes is established.At last,by comparing the estimation of casualty using the models with the actual number of victims in 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,it is proved that the model can make approximate estimation.
引文
[1]姜立新,聂高众,帅向华,等.我国地震应急指挥技术体系初探[J].自然灾害学报,2003.12(2):1-6.
[2]帅向华,姜立新,王栋梁.国家地震应急指挥软件系统研究[J].自然灾害学报,2009.18(3):99-104.
[3]帅向华.地震应急信息管理技术研究和指挥首长信息查询系统实现[J].地震,2006.26(3):93-98.
[4]帅向华,姜立新,成小平.利用WebGIS实现地震灾害信息数据的管理[J].自然灾害学报,2003.12(3):110-114.
[5]Applied Technology Council.Earthquake Damage EstimationData for California(ATC-13)[R].Applied TechnologyCommission,1985:280.
[6]傅征祥,李革平.地震生命损失研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.
[7]杨天青,姜立新,杨桂岭.地震人员伤亡快速评估[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2006.27(4):39-43.
[8]谢礼立.城市防震减灾能力的定义及评估方法[J].西北地震学报,2005.27(4):296-304.
[9]周中红,何少林,陈文凯.震害快速评估中基于GM(1,1)模型的人口预测[J].西北地震学报,2009.31(1):71-74.
[10]Chen Qifu,Chen Yong,et al.Quick and approximate estima-tion of earthquake loss based on macroscopic index of expo-sure and population distribution[J].Natural Hazards,1997,15:217-229.
[11]Samardjieva E,Badal J.Estimation of the expected numberof casualties caused by strong earthquakes[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2002,92:2310-2322.
[12]Kishor Jaiswal,Wald,et al.Estimating Casualties for LargeEarthquakes Worldwide Using an Empirical Approach[R],USGS Open-File Report,2009.
[13]Porter,Jaiswal,Wald,et al.Fatality Models for the U.S.Geological Survey,s Prompt Assessment of Global Earth-quakes for Response System[A]∥The 14th world conferenceon earthquake engineering[C].Beijing,2008.
[14]中国地震局监测预报司.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编[M].北京:地震出版社,1996,2001.
[15]张肇诚,陈棋福,郑大林.中国震例[M].北京:地震出版社,1988,1990,1999,2000,2002,2008.
[16]中国地震台网中心.国家地震科学数据共享中心[OL].2010,http://data.earthquake.cn/index.do.
[17]TrevorI Allen,Kristin D Marano,et al.PAGER-CAT:AComposite Earthquake Catalog for Calibrating Global FatalityModels[J].Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(1):57-62.
[18]地球系统科学数据共享运行服务总中心.地球系统科学数据共享平台[OL].2008,http://www.geodata.cn/Portal/in-dex.jsp.
[19]江东,杨小唤,王乃斌,等.基于RS、GIS的人口空间分布研究[J].地球科学进展,2002.17(5):734-738.
[20]中华人民共和国统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1999-2009.
[21]John H Mathews著,周璐(译).数值方法(Matlab版)[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2009.
[2]帅向华,姜立新,王栋梁.国家地震应急指挥软件系统研究[J].自然灾害学报,2009.18(3):99-104.
[3]帅向华.地震应急信息管理技术研究和指挥首长信息查询系统实现[J].地震,2006.26(3):93-98.
[4]帅向华,姜立新,成小平.利用WebGIS实现地震灾害信息数据的管理[J].自然灾害学报,2003.12(3):110-114.
[5]Applied Technology Council.Earthquake Damage EstimationData for California(ATC-13)[R].Applied TechnologyCommission,1985:280.
[6]傅征祥,李革平.地震生命损失研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.
[7]杨天青,姜立新,杨桂岭.地震人员伤亡快速评估[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2006.27(4):39-43.
[8]谢礼立.城市防震减灾能力的定义及评估方法[J].西北地震学报,2005.27(4):296-304.
[9]周中红,何少林,陈文凯.震害快速评估中基于GM(1,1)模型的人口预测[J].西北地震学报,2009.31(1):71-74.
[10]Chen Qifu,Chen Yong,et al.Quick and approximate estima-tion of earthquake loss based on macroscopic index of expo-sure and population distribution[J].Natural Hazards,1997,15:217-229.
[11]Samardjieva E,Badal J.Estimation of the expected numberof casualties caused by strong earthquakes[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2002,92:2310-2322.
[12]Kishor Jaiswal,Wald,et al.Estimating Casualties for LargeEarthquakes Worldwide Using an Empirical Approach[R],USGS Open-File Report,2009.
[13]Porter,Jaiswal,Wald,et al.Fatality Models for the U.S.Geological Survey,s Prompt Assessment of Global Earth-quakes for Response System[A]∥The 14th world conferenceon earthquake engineering[C].Beijing,2008.
[14]中国地震局监测预报司.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编[M].北京:地震出版社,1996,2001.
[15]张肇诚,陈棋福,郑大林.中国震例[M].北京:地震出版社,1988,1990,1999,2000,2002,2008.
[16]中国地震台网中心.国家地震科学数据共享中心[OL].2010,http://data.earthquake.cn/index.do.
[17]TrevorI Allen,Kristin D Marano,et al.PAGER-CAT:AComposite Earthquake Catalog for Calibrating Global FatalityModels[J].Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(1):57-62.
[18]地球系统科学数据共享运行服务总中心.地球系统科学数据共享平台[OL].2008,http://www.geodata.cn/Portal/in-dex.jsp.
[19]江东,杨小唤,王乃斌,等.基于RS、GIS的人口空间分布研究[J].地球科学进展,2002.17(5):734-738.
[20]中华人民共和国统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1999-2009.
[21]John H Mathews著,周璐(译).数值方法(Matlab版)[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2009.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心