不同暴雨条件下形成的草坡磨子沟泥石流堵塞岷江可能性分析
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摘要
2013年7月10日,草坡磨子沟暴发特大规模泥石流,造成岷江堵塞并淤埋都汶高速,造成巨大的经济损失。为研究此次泥石流堵河特点并预测未来暴发泥石流堵河的可能性,通过分析该沟基本特征,探讨了汶川震后沟内地形地貌、降雨条件及物源变化对泥石流暴发的影响;分析了泥石流动力学特征及不同堵河判别公式计算结果,得出在不同暴雨频率下暴发泥石流可能引起的堵河情况,进而预测了该沟的堵河发展趋势。研究结果表明,震后沟内形成超过7×106 m3的固体物源储量,沟道内形成了大量堵塞体,在强降雨条件下极易暴发泥石流;草坡磨子沟在暴雨频率小于5%时暴发泥石流便可造成堵河事件。
A widespread debris flow had initiated in Caopo Mozi valley on 10 th July 2013,which led to the blocking of Minjiang River,buried the Duwen Highway and caused irreparable economic losses.In order to study the river-blocking characteristics of this debris flow and predict the possibility of river blocking caused by future debris flow,the influence of the valley topography,rainfall condition and source change after Wenchuan earthquake on debris flow out-breaking was discussed by analyzing the basic characteristics of this valley.And then the dynamics characteristics of debris flow and different calculation results of river-blocking discriminant formula were analyzed.The river-blocking situations caused by debris flow were obtained under different rainstorm frequency.Finally,the river-blocking development trend of this valley was forecasted.The study results show that there are more than 700×104 m3 solid source reserves formed after the earthquake,a large number of solid objects blocked in the channel,and the debris flow easily out-breaking under the condition of heavy rainfall;Caopo Mozi valley can produce river blocking due to the debris flows triggered by the rainfall frequency with return period greater than 5%.
A widespread debris flow had initiated in Caopo Mozi valley on 10 th July 2013,which led to the blocking of Minjiang River,buried the Duwen Highway and caused irreparable economic losses.In order to study the river-blocking characteristics of this debris flow and predict the possibility of river blocking caused by future debris flow,the influence of the valley topography,rainfall condition and source change after Wenchuan earthquake on debris flow out-breaking was discussed by analyzing the basic characteristics of this valley.And then the dynamics characteristics of debris flow and different calculation results of river-blocking discriminant formula were analyzed.The river-blocking situations caused by debris flow were obtained under different rainstorm frequency.Finally,the river-blocking development trend of this valley was forecasted.The study results show that there are more than 700×104 m3 solid source reserves formed after the earthquake,a large number of solid objects blocked in the channel,and the debris flow easily out-breaking under the condition of heavy rainfall;Caopo Mozi valley can produce river blocking due to the debris flows triggered by the rainfall frequency with return period greater than 5%.
引文
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[2]周必凡,李德基,罗德富,等.泥石流防治指南[M].北京:科学出版社,1991.
[3]吴积善,康志成,田连权,等.云南蒋家沟泥石流观测研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1990.
[4]徐永年,匡尚富,黄永键,等.泥石流入汇的危险性判别指标[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):33-38.
[5]张金山,谢洪.岷江上游泥石流堵河可能性的经验公式判别[J].长江流域资源与环境,2008,17(4):651-655.
[6]唐川,黄润秋,黄达,等.金沙江美姑河牛牛坝水电站库区泥石流对工程影响分析[J].工程地质学报,2006,14(2):145-151.
[7]庄建琦,葛永刚,陈兴长.震后都汶公路沿线泥石流沟堵江危险性评估[J].工程地质学报,2012,20(2):195-203.
[8]张金山,沈兴菊,谢洪.泥石流堵河影响因素研究——以岷江上游为例[J].灾害学,2007,22(2):82-86.
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