对日本9级地震的中期预测及其依据
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摘要
对2011年3月11日发生在日本的9级大地震所做出的中期预测进行小结,并对所提出预测意见及其依据做了简要论述。预测地区在日本南部、台湾以及菲律宾一带;预测震级为8～8.3级;预测时间是今后几年;预测依据是青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系。预测地震三要素与日本9级大地震三要素的对比结果表明,这一中期预测是基本正确的。
In this paper,the author summarized the moderate-term prediction about the super-great earthquake occurred in the sea off the east coast of Honshu,Japan on March 11,2011,and discussed the predicting criteria.The predicted areas were defined to south Japan and other two areas.The predicted earthquake magnitude was 8.0 to 8.3.The moderate-term prediction was based on the tectonic system controlled by Qinhai-Tibet-Yunnan-Burma-Indonesian eta-type tectonic series.The comparison of prediction result to the occurrence of Mw 9.0 earthquake in Japan indicates that the prediction is basically correct.
In this paper,the author summarized the moderate-term prediction about the super-great earthquake occurred in the sea off the east coast of Honshu,Japan on March 11,2011,and discussed the predicting criteria.The predicted areas were defined to south Japan and other two areas.The predicted earthquake magnitude was 8.0 to 8.3.The moderate-term prediction was based on the tectonic system controlled by Qinhai-Tibet-Yunnan-Burma-Indonesian eta-type tectonic series.The comparison of prediction result to the occurrence of Mw 9.0 earthquake in Japan indicates that the prediction is basically correct.
引文
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[13]XU Dao-Yi,Ouchi T.Spatiotemporal ordering of great earthquakes(M≥8)in Asia during1934-1970Years[C]//Research report of RCUSS.Kobe:Kobe University,1998:159～170.
[2]徐道一.预测20世纪90年代中国大陆8级大震的成果及其理论意义[C]//李克.中国八级大震研究及防震减灾学术会议论文集.北京:地震出版社,2001:24～30.XU Dao-yi.Results of the prediction of great earthquakes(M>=8)on China continent during the1990s and its theoretical significance[C]//LI Ke.Symposium of papers of the meeting of researches on great earthquakes with magnitude M8.Beijing:Seismological Press,2001:24～30.
[3]徐道一.2003年9月27日俄蒙中边界7.9级地震的中期预测及其重要意义[J].中国地震,2004,20(4):341～346.XU Dao-yi.Prediction for the M=7.9earthquake occurred near the boundaries among Russia,Mongolia and China on September27,2003,and its significances[J].Earthquake Research in China,2004,20(4):341～346.
[4]徐道一,孙文鹏.歹字型构造体系在地震预测中的应用[J].地质力学学报,2011,17(1):64～73.XU Dao-yi,SUN Wen-peng.Application of the eta-type tectonic series suggested by Li Si-guang to earthquake prediction[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2011,17(1):64～73.
[5]徐道一.21世纪初全球巨灾群发期的认识及其预测意义[C]//中国地球物理学会,中国地震学会.中国地球物理2010.北京:地震出版社,2010:384～385.XU Dao-yi.Cognition and prediction on global huge disasters at the early of the21 th century[C]//China Geophysical Society,China Seismological Society.2010Geophysics in China.Beijing:Seismological Press,2010:384～385.
[6]中国地震局地质研究所.中国大陆构造活动背景分析及2009年度地震危险性预测研究[R].北京:中国地震局地质研究所,2008.Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration.Analysis on structural activity and prediction of earthquake risk in 2009in Chinese mainland[R].Beijing:Institute of Geology of China Earthquake Administration,2008.
[7]徐道一.21世纪初的巨震群发期及其对中国大陆地震趋势的预测意义[R].北京:中国地震局地质研究所,2009.XU Dao-yi.Cognition on concentrated occurrence of huge earthquakes at the early of the21 th century and its significance on prediction of earthquake tendency in Chinese mainland[R].Beijing:Institute of Geology of China Earthquake Administration,2009.
[8]徐道一.日本南部、中国台湾地震趋势的估计[R].北京:中国地震局地质研究所,2006.XU Dao-y.Prediction on earthquake tendency in the south of Japan and Chinese Taiwan[R].Beijing:Institute of Geology of China Earthquake Administration,2006.
[9]徐道一.汶川巨震印度尼西亚巨震及其与青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系的关系[C]//康玉柱,王宗秀.学习李四光的创新精神,发展地质力学理论:著名地质学家李四光诞辰120周年纪念.北京:大地出版社,2009:147～152.XU Dao-yi.Wenchuan and Indonesian earthquakes and their relation to tectonic regime in the Qinghai-Tibet-Yunnan-Burma[C]//KANG Yu-zhu,WANG Zong-xiu.Studying Li Si-guang(J.S.Lee)'s innovative spirit and developing the theory of geomechanics:To commemorate the120 th anniversary of famous geologist Li Siguang's birth.Beijing:Land Press,2009:147～152.
[10]Xu Dao-yi,Ouchi T.Equidistant ordering of shallow earthquakes(M≥7.5)in and around Japan since1890[C]//Research report of RCUSS.Kobe:Kobe University,1998:141～158.
[11]宇佐美龙夫.新编日本被害地震总览(增补改订版)[M].东京:东京大学出版社,1996.Tatsuo USAMI.Materials for comprehensive list of destructive earthquakes in Japan(Revised and enlatged edition)[M].Tokyo:University of Tokyo Press,1996.
[12]XU Dao-yi,MEN Ke-pei,DENG Zhi-hui.Self-organized ordering of earthquake(M≥8)in Mainland China[J].Engineering Sciences,2010,8(4):13～17.
[13]XU Dao-Yi,Ouchi T.Spatiotemporal ordering of great earthquakes(M≥8)in Asia during1934-1970Years[C]//Research report of RCUSS.Kobe:Kobe University,1998:159～170.
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