华东地区地震活动加速指数AI算法应用探讨
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摘要
应用改进的地震活动加速指数AI算法对华东地区1970年以来MS≥5.0地震进行了回顾性统计检验。结果表明,AI指数能够量化地给出中强地震前小震活动的相对增强或减弱变化程度;在小震目录较为完整的情况下,中强地震震中区及其附近地区震前1年的小震活动与之前三年的活动背景相比,会出现较明显的"加速"或"减速"现象。
Applying Acceleration Index(AI)algorithm,this paper makes statistical retrospective tests for earthquakes with MS≥5.0 in eastern China since 1970.The results show that AI can quantitatively indicate activity strengthen or weaken level of micro earthquakes before moderate-to-strong shocks.If earthquake catalog is completed,activity of micro earthquakes 1 year before moderate-to-strong shocks near epicenters will 'accelerate' or 'decelerate' compared to the 3-year background.
Applying Acceleration Index(AI)algorithm,this paper makes statistical retrospective tests for earthquakes with MS≥5.0 in eastern China since 1970.The results show that AI can quantitatively indicate activity strengthen or weaken level of micro earthquakes before moderate-to-strong shocks.If earthquake catalog is completed,activity of micro earthquakes 1 year before moderate-to-strong shocks near epicenters will 'accelerate' or 'decelerate' compared to the 3-year background.
引文
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[2]Wyss M.Nomination of precursory seismic quiescence as a significant precursor[J].Pure Appl Geo-phys.,1997,149:79-114.
[3]Z ller G,HAInzl S,Kurths J,et al.ASystematic Test on Precursory Seismic Quiescence in Arme-nia[J].Natural Hazards,2002,26(3):245-263.
[4]杨立明,车时.大震前后中强地震活动格局变化及其预测意义初步研究[J].西北地震学报,2004,26(3):212-217.
[5]冯建刚,周龙泉,杨立明,等.青藏块体东北缘中强地震前小震频度异常研究[J].地震,2009,29(3):19-26.
[6]梅世蓉.地震前兆物理模式与前兆时空分布特征与机制研究(一):坚固体孕震模式的由来与依据[J].地震学报,1995,17(3):273-282.
[7]梅世蓉,宋治平,薛艳.中国巨大地震前地震活动环形分布图像与规律[J].地震学报,1996,18(4):413-419.
[8]宋治平,梅世蓉,尹祥础.强大地震前地震活动增强区及其力学研究[J].地震学报,1999,21(3):271-277.
[9]梅世蓉,薛艳,宋治平.汶川8.0级地震与昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动异常特征与启示[J].地震,2009,29(1):1-14.
[10]陈祺福,郑大林,车时,等.中国震例(2000—2002)[C].北京:地震出版社,2008.
[11]Knopoff L,Levshina T,Keilis-Borok V I,et al.Increased long-range intermediate magnitu de earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California.J Geophys Res,101:5779-5796.
[12]蒋长胜,吴忠良,史勇军.中强震前地震活动矩释放加速现象(AMR)的普遍性问题[J].中国地震,2004,20(2):119-125.
[13]蒋海昆,苗青壮,董祥,等.中国大陆7级强震前中小地震应变释放特征[J].地震,2009,29(3):1-11.
[14]杨明芝,金延龙.宁夏及邻近地区中强地震前地震累积数的非线性变化[J].地震,1991,11(3):71-74.
[15]马禾青,杨明芝,李春贵.小地震发生率和累计次数变化的理论解释及应用实例[J].地震,2008,28(1):57-66.
[16]Po-Chen Lin,Hin-Chi Lee.地震数目改变率的计算及应用[D].台湾:国立中央大学土木工程学研究所,2007,1-84.
[17]林邦慧,李大鹏,刘杰,等.前震和前震序列的研究[J].地震学报,1994,16(A00):24-38.
[18]Jones,L M&Molnar,P.Some characteristics of foreshocks and their possible relationship to earthquake prediction and premonitory slip on faults[J].J Geophysys Res,1979,84(B7):3596-3608.
[19]Console R,Murru M,Alessandrini B.Foreshock statistics and their possible relationship to earth-quake predictionin the Italian region[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1993,83(4):1248-1263.
[20]蒋海昆,曲延军,李永莉,等.中国大陆中强地震余震序列的部分统计特征[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(4):1110-1117.
[21]梅世蓉.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(二)——强震孕育时应力、应变场的演化与地震活动、地震前兆的关系[J].地震学报,1996,18(1):1-10.
[22]梅世蓉.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(三)——强震孕育时地震活动与地壳形变场异常及机制[J].地震学报,1996,18(2):170-178.
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