我国地震海啸危险性概率分析方法
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摘要
日本、美国等国家在海啸危险性分析方面做了较多的研究,有相关的分析方法提出。我国地震海啸研究尚属于起步阶段,还没有形成公认的地震海啸危险性概率分析的思路和方法。简要综述了我国地震海啸的研究进展,借鉴我国已成熟的地震危险性分析方法,给出了地震海啸危险性概率分析的思路与方法,并对其关键技术问题进行了分析,为我国全面开展地震海啸减灾工作提供依据。
Tsunami hazard analysis has been undergone many years in Japan,America and other countries.Some methods had been applied in the resistance of tsunami hazard.In China,the studies on tsunami hazard are just realized by the public.However,the definition and method of probability analysis of earthquake-induced tsunami hazard has not been proposed.In this paper,following the regular seismic hazard analysis methods,Chinese probability analysis of tsunami hazard is given.
Tsunami hazard analysis has been undergone many years in Japan,America and other countries.Some methods had been applied in the resistance of tsunami hazard.In China,the studies on tsunami hazard are just realized by the public.However,the definition and method of probability analysis of earthquake-induced tsunami hazard has not been proposed.In this paper,following the regular seismic hazard analysis methods,Chinese probability analysis of tsunami hazard is given.
引文
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[6]温瑞智,任叶飞.日本Mw9.0地震海啸数值模拟与启示[J].国际地震动态,2011,388:23-28.
[7]于福江,原野,赵联大,等.2010年2月27日智利8.8级地震海啸对我国影响分析[J].科学通讯,2011,56(3):239-246.
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[12]李起彤.我国海洋工程场地安全性评价的回顾与展望[J].国际地震动态,2001,(5):22-26.
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[23]Ren,Y.F.,Wen,R.Z.,Zhou,B.F.,et.al.Deterministic analysis of the tsunami hazard in China[J].Science of Tsunami Hazards,2010,29(1):32-41.
[24]Liu,Y.,Santos,A.,Wang,S.M.,et.al.Tsunami hazards along Chinese coast from potential earthquakes inSouth China Sea[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2007,163(4):233-244.
[25]杨马陵.地震海啸监测预警现状与进展[J].华南地震,2005,25(2):22-29.
[26]温瑞智,周正华,谢礼立.基于强震台网的我国沿海海啸走时预警[J].地震工程与工程振动,2006,26(2):20-24.
[27]陈运平,沈繁銮,陈定.海南省南海地震监测和海啸预警服务[J].华南地震,2005,26(1):61-65.
[28]黄永德,李健威.香港海啸监测及警报系统的发展[J].华南地震,2005,28(2):118-124.
[29]Cornell,C.A..Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1968,58(5):1583-1606.
[30]胡聿贤主编.地震安全性评价技术教程[M].北京:地震出版社,1999.
[31]Geist,E.L.,Parsons,T..Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Hazards[J].Natural Hazards,2006,37(3):277-314.
[32]Soloviev,S.L..Recurrence of tsunamis in the Pacific[R].East-West Center Press,1969.
[33]Houston,J.R..Type 19 Flood Insurance Study,Tsunami Predictions for Southern California[R].TechnicalReport HL-80-18,1980.
[34]Burroughs,S.M,Tebbens,S.F..Power law scaling and probabilistic forecasting of tsunami runup heights[J].Pure Applied Geophysics.,2005,162:331-342.
[35]Burroughs,S.M.,Tebbens,S.F..Upper-truncated power laws in natural systems[J].Pure AppliedGeophysics.,2001,158:741-757.
[36]Kagan,Y.Y,Jackson,D.D..Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes[J].Geophysical JournalInternational,2000,143:438-453.
[37]Schwartz,D.P.,Coppersmith,K.J..Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes:examples from theWasatch and San Andreas fault zones[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1984,89(B7):568l-5698.
[38]Andrews,D.J..A stochastic fault model 1.Static case[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1980,85(B7):3867-3877.
[39]Andrews,D.J..A stochastic fault model 2.Time-dependent case[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1981,86(B11):10821-10834.
[40]Wells,D.,Coppersmith,K..New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupturearea,and surface displacement[J].Bulletin Seismological.Society of America.1994,84(4):974-1002.
[41]Becker,J.J.,Sandwell,D.T.,Smith,W.H.F.,et.al,Global Bathymetry and Elevation Data at 30Arc Seconds Resolution:SRTM30_PLUS[J].Marine Geodesy,2009,32(4):355-371.
[2]Kurkin,A.A.,Pelinovskii,E.N.,Choi,B.H.,et.al.A comparative estimation of the tsunami hazardfor the Russian coast of the Sea of Japan based on numerical simulation[J].Oceanology,2004,44(2):163-172.
[3]Annaka,T.,satake,k.,sakakt yama,T.,et.al.Logic-tree approach for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysisand its applications to the Japanese coasts[J].Pure Applied Geophysics,2007,164:577-592.
[4]Salamon,A.,Rockwell,T.,Ward,S.N.,et.al.Tsunami hazard evaluation of the easternMediterranean—Historical analysis and selected modeling[J].Bulletin Seismological.Society of America,2007,97(3):705-724.
[5]Kelvin,B..Review of tsunami hazard and risk in New Zealand[R].Institute of Geological&Nuclear Sciencesclient report 2005/104,2005.
[6]温瑞智,任叶飞.日本Mw9.0地震海啸数值模拟与启示[J].国际地震动态,2011,388:23-28.
[7]于福江,原野,赵联大,等.2010年2月27日智利8.8级地震海啸对我国影响分析[J].科学通讯,2011,56(3):239-246.
[8]李成.地震海啸的研究[J].海洋通报,1982,1(2):16-23.
[9]Zhou,Q.,Adams,W.M..Tsunamigenic Earthquakes in China,1831 BC to 1980 AD[J].Science ofTsunami Hazards,1986,4(3):131-148.
[10]郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.未来灾害学[M].北京:地震出版社,1992.
[11]Zhou,Q.,Adams,W M..Tsunami Risk Analysis for China[J].Natural Hazards,1988,1(2):181-195.
[12]李起彤.我国海洋工程场地安全性评价的回顾与展望[J].国际地震动态,2001,(5):22-26.
[13]王锋,刘昌森,章振铨.中国古籍中的地震海啸记录[J].中国地震,2005,21(3):437-443.
[14]段家芬,尹茂仲,魏汝庆.山东日照地区沿海海啸探析[J].华南地震,2005,26(2):1-7.
[15]魏柏林,康英,陈玉桃,等.海地震与海啸[J].华南地震,2006,26(1):47-60.
[16]郭彩玲,王晓峰.中国东部海域发生海啸的可能性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(1):7-11.
[17]陈颙,陈棋福,张尉.中国的海啸灾害[J].自然灾害学报,2006,16(2):1-6.
[18]李小军.海域工程场地地震安全性评价的特殊问题[J].震灾防御技术,2006,1(2):97-104.
[19]祝会兵,于颖,戴世强.海啸数值计算研究进展[J].水动力学研究与进展,2006,2l(6):714-723.
[20]姚远,蔡树群,王盛安.海啸波数值模拟的研究现状[J].海洋科学进展,2007,25(4):487-494.
[21]温燕林,朱元清,宋治平,等.东海海域潜在地震海啸的数值模拟初步研究[J].地震学报,2008,30(5):456-463.
[22]潘文亮,王盛安,蔡树群.南海潜在海啸灾害的模拟[J].热带海洋学报,2009,28(6):7-14.
[23]Ren,Y.F.,Wen,R.Z.,Zhou,B.F.,et.al.Deterministic analysis of the tsunami hazard in China[J].Science of Tsunami Hazards,2010,29(1):32-41.
[24]Liu,Y.,Santos,A.,Wang,S.M.,et.al.Tsunami hazards along Chinese coast from potential earthquakes inSouth China Sea[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2007,163(4):233-244.
[25]杨马陵.地震海啸监测预警现状与进展[J].华南地震,2005,25(2):22-29.
[26]温瑞智,周正华,谢礼立.基于强震台网的我国沿海海啸走时预警[J].地震工程与工程振动,2006,26(2):20-24.
[27]陈运平,沈繁銮,陈定.海南省南海地震监测和海啸预警服务[J].华南地震,2005,26(1):61-65.
[28]黄永德,李健威.香港海啸监测及警报系统的发展[J].华南地震,2005,28(2):118-124.
[29]Cornell,C.A..Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1968,58(5):1583-1606.
[30]胡聿贤主编.地震安全性评价技术教程[M].北京:地震出版社,1999.
[31]Geist,E.L.,Parsons,T..Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Hazards[J].Natural Hazards,2006,37(3):277-314.
[32]Soloviev,S.L..Recurrence of tsunamis in the Pacific[R].East-West Center Press,1969.
[33]Houston,J.R..Type 19 Flood Insurance Study,Tsunami Predictions for Southern California[R].TechnicalReport HL-80-18,1980.
[34]Burroughs,S.M,Tebbens,S.F..Power law scaling and probabilistic forecasting of tsunami runup heights[J].Pure Applied Geophysics.,2005,162:331-342.
[35]Burroughs,S.M.,Tebbens,S.F..Upper-truncated power laws in natural systems[J].Pure AppliedGeophysics.,2001,158:741-757.
[36]Kagan,Y.Y,Jackson,D.D..Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes[J].Geophysical JournalInternational,2000,143:438-453.
[37]Schwartz,D.P.,Coppersmith,K.J..Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes:examples from theWasatch and San Andreas fault zones[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1984,89(B7):568l-5698.
[38]Andrews,D.J..A stochastic fault model 1.Static case[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1980,85(B7):3867-3877.
[39]Andrews,D.J..A stochastic fault model 2.Time-dependent case[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1981,86(B11):10821-10834.
[40]Wells,D.,Coppersmith,K..New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupturearea,and surface displacement[J].Bulletin Seismological.Society of America.1994,84(4):974-1002.
[41]Becker,J.J.,Sandwell,D.T.,Smith,W.H.F.,et.al,Global Bathymetry and Elevation Data at 30Arc Seconds Resolution:SRTM30_PLUS[J].Marine Geodesy,2009,32(4):355-371.
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