大地震时空窗口研究
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摘要
依据《地震应可预测》一书收录的自中国初建电信传输台网以来,涉及近半个世纪的地震活动性图像,震级跨度自M3.0—M4.0级中强震至M8.0级大震,着眼于地震大尺度的观点,将中国地震的活动性图像置于全球地震活动框架中进行分析研究。认识到大地震不是任何地方都能发生的,大地震不是任何时间都能发生的,大地震有其特定的时空结构。条环交会、差异活动和深震与天外来客事件等是制约发震时空窗口的主要因素。条带与圆环的交会基本上有三种类型:条带与条带、圆环与圆环以及条带与圆环。研究了空区的特征形态,认为似用屈曲传递动力的组合环节以解释可能更为合适。因之重点应着眼于对其两者(活跃与平静)的差异性组合。鉴于大地震发震时刻窗口经常处在天外来客的节点上,因之我们尚需关注那些非随机的天外来客事件。本文阐述了制约发震时空窗口的诸多因素,这些因素也已在2011年3月11日M9.0东北日本大地震观测中得到了印证。
According to the book "Earthquake Can Be Predicted",which studied earthquakes of M3.0—M4.0 to M8.0,since very beginning on Chinese Seismic Network via elect-communication lines,in about half a century duration,in view of earthquakes in large scale,the Chinese seismic pattern is studied in the globe scale seismic framework.It is recognized that not anywhere and anytime can a large earthquake occur.Large earthquakes occur in their special temporal and spatial windows.The intersection between earthquake stripe and earthquake circularity,the difference in seismic activities;the earthquakes in great depth and the events outside the Earth are the main factors that control the temporal and spatial windows of the large earthquake occurrence.There are three types of intersections between earthquake stripe and earthquake circularity:stripe with stripe;circularity with circularity;and stripe with circularity.According to the features of the gaps,it is recognized that the gap may be caused by buckling on its earth layer.Therefore,one has to pay attention on the difference between active and quiet regions.Since a large earthquake very often occurs at the time node of a special condition,related with events outside the Earth,one should pay attention to these events that are not random in nature.The main factors that control the temporal and spatial windows of large earthquake occurrences,as described in this paper,were verified in a earthquake of magnitude of 9.0 occurred on 11 March 2011,off the Pacific Coast of the northeastern part of the Japanese main land(Tohoku Region).
According to the book "Earthquake Can Be Predicted",which studied earthquakes of M3.0—M4.0 to M8.0,since very beginning on Chinese Seismic Network via elect-communication lines,in about half a century duration,in view of earthquakes in large scale,the Chinese seismic pattern is studied in the globe scale seismic framework.It is recognized that not anywhere and anytime can a large earthquake occur.Large earthquakes occur in their special temporal and spatial windows.The intersection between earthquake stripe and earthquake circularity,the difference in seismic activities;the earthquakes in great depth and the events outside the Earth are the main factors that control the temporal and spatial windows of the large earthquake occurrence.There are three types of intersections between earthquake stripe and earthquake circularity:stripe with stripe;circularity with circularity;and stripe with circularity.According to the features of the gaps,it is recognized that the gap may be caused by buckling on its earth layer.Therefore,one has to pay attention on the difference between active and quiet regions.Since a large earthquake very often occurs at the time node of a special condition,related with events outside the Earth,one should pay attention to these events that are not random in nature.The main factors that control the temporal and spatial windows of large earthquake occurrences,as described in this paper,were verified in a earthquake of magnitude of 9.0 occurred on 11 March 2011,off the Pacific Coast of the northeastern part of the Japanese main land(Tohoku Region).
引文
[1]许绍燮.地震应可预测[M].北京:地震出版社,2011.Xu Shaoxie.Earthquake should be predicted[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2011.
[2]许绍燮.地震发震大尺度结构[J].科技导报,2010,28(23):26-33.Xu Shaoxie.Science and Technology Review,2010,28(23):26-33.
[3]赵树贤,许绍燮,吴平静,等.地震发生与日月运行之关联[J].科技导报,2011,29(13):18-23.Zhao Shuxian,Xu Shaoxie,Wu Pingjing,et al.Science and Technology Review,2011,29(13):18-23.
[4]范兴川,佟旭.探索地震预报尚需关注“天外来客”[J].科学中国人,2009(2):64-71.Fan Xingchuan,Tong Xu.Scientific Chinese,2009(2):64-71.
[5]许绍燮,刘玉芬.从两次溧阳地震认识地震现象的相似性[J].地震学刊,1985(3):1-6.Xu Shaoxie,Liu Yutfen.Journal of Seismology,1985(3):1-6.
[6]许绍燮.从汶川地震震前现象认识其发震动力应具有的大尺度与深层次性[J].中国工程科学,2009,11(6):16-18.Xu Shaoxie.Engineering Sciences,2009,11(6):16-18.
[7]许绍燮.大尺度地层内的分层运动[J].中国工程科学,2006,8(6):1422.Xu Shaoxie.Engineering Sciences,2006,8(6):14-22.
[8]赵树贤,许绍燮,马莉,等.“311”东北日本M9.0大地震可预测性特征探索[J].科技导报,2012,30(4):26-30.Zhao Shuxian,Xu Shaoxie,Ma Li,et al.Science&Technology Review,2012,30(4):26-30.
[2]许绍燮.地震发震大尺度结构[J].科技导报,2010,28(23):26-33.Xu Shaoxie.Science and Technology Review,2010,28(23):26-33.
[3]赵树贤,许绍燮,吴平静,等.地震发生与日月运行之关联[J].科技导报,2011,29(13):18-23.Zhao Shuxian,Xu Shaoxie,Wu Pingjing,et al.Science and Technology Review,2011,29(13):18-23.
[4]范兴川,佟旭.探索地震预报尚需关注“天外来客”[J].科学中国人,2009(2):64-71.Fan Xingchuan,Tong Xu.Scientific Chinese,2009(2):64-71.
[5]许绍燮,刘玉芬.从两次溧阳地震认识地震现象的相似性[J].地震学刊,1985(3):1-6.Xu Shaoxie,Liu Yutfen.Journal of Seismology,1985(3):1-6.
[6]许绍燮.从汶川地震震前现象认识其发震动力应具有的大尺度与深层次性[J].中国工程科学,2009,11(6):16-18.Xu Shaoxie.Engineering Sciences,2009,11(6):16-18.
[7]许绍燮.大尺度地层内的分层运动[J].中国工程科学,2006,8(6):1422.Xu Shaoxie.Engineering Sciences,2006,8(6):14-22.
[8]赵树贤,许绍燮,马莉,等.“311”东北日本M9.0大地震可预测性特征探索[J].科技导报,2012,30(4):26-30.Zhao Shuxian,Xu Shaoxie,Ma Li,et al.Science&Technology Review,2012,30(4):26-30.
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