基于情景推演的地震灾害演化动态GERT网络模型
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摘要
地震发生后,各种原生、次生以及衍生灾害相互耦合、演化,且在灾害耦合、演化过程中又伴有不同力度的抢险救灾行为,准确描述这一过程有助于有效应对和缓解灾情。为此,在传统的GERT网络模型的基础上,建立了一个基于情景推演的地震灾害演化的动态GERT网络模型,较好地解决了地震灾害相互耦合关系的定性和定量描述问题以及网络模型的动态修正和优化问题,为地震灾害演化的预测与分析提供了一种新的研究思路。
After an earthquake,all kinds of primary disasters,derived disasters and secondary disasters couple and evolve mutually or together.The coupling and evolution process is often accompanied by different intensity of rescue and relief actions.Accurately describing the process is of great significance to deal with and relieve the disaster situation.Based on classical GERT(Graph Evaluation and Review Technique) network model and scenario inference,a dynamic GERT network model for the evolution of earthquake disaster was developed herein.The problems of qualitative and quantitative description of mutual coupling relationships in earthquake disasters,and dynamic correction and optimization of the network model are well solved.The approach presents a new idea for the prediction and analysis of earthquake disaster evolution.
After an earthquake,all kinds of primary disasters,derived disasters and secondary disasters couple and evolve mutually or together.The coupling and evolution process is often accompanied by different intensity of rescue and relief actions.Accurately describing the process is of great significance to deal with and relieve the disaster situation.Based on classical GERT(Graph Evaluation and Review Technique) network model and scenario inference,a dynamic GERT network model for the evolution of earthquake disaster was developed herein.The problems of qualitative and quantitative description of mutual coupling relationships in earthquake disasters,and dynamic correction and optimization of the network model are well solved.The approach presents a new idea for the prediction and analysis of earthquake disaster evolution.
引文
[1]方志耕,杨保华,陆志鹏,等.基于Bayes推理的灾害演化GERT网络模型研究[J].中国管理科学,2009,17(2):102-107.FANG Zhigeng,YANG Baohua,LU Zhipeng,et al.The GERT network model study of disaster evolution based on Bayes Inference[J].ChineseJournal of Management Science,2009,17(2):102-107.(in Chinese)
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[4]荣莉莉,张继永.突发事件的不同演化模式研究[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(3):1-6.RONG Lili,ZHANG Jiyong.Research on different evolution models of emergency[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2012,21(3):1-6.(inChinese)
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[6]马祖军,谢自莉.基于贝叶斯网络的城市地震次生灾害演化机理分析[J].灾害学,2012,27(4):1-5.MA Zujun,XIE Zili.Evolution mechanism of earthquake-induced urban disasters based on bayesian networks[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2012,27(4):1-5.(in Chinese)
[7]Kenzo K,Nobuyuki N.Efficient Monte Carlo simulation method of GERT-type network for project management[J].Computers&IndustrialEngineering,2002,42(11):521-531.
[8]Lin KP,Wu W,Chang C,et al.Applying fuzzy GERT with approximate fuzzy arithmetic based on the weakest t-norm operations to evaluaterepairable reliability[J].Applied Mathematical Modelling,2011,35(11):5314-5325.
[9]Hamid R A,Shamsollah A,et al.Modeling and Analysis of Mechanization Projects of Wheat Production by GERT Networks[J].AgriculturalSciences in China,2010,9(7):1078-1083.
[10]谢家平,赵忠.基于GERT随机网络的废弃回收预测模型研究[J].管理学报,2010,7(2):294-300.XIE Jiaping,ZHAO Zhong.Forecasting model for the reusing process of the discarded products based on GERT network theory[J].ChineseJournal of Management,2010,7(2):294-300.(in Chinese)
[11]邬晓光,石卫平,武和谦,等.桥梁施工进度控制随机网络解析算法[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2003,3(5):61-63.WU Xiaoguang,SHi Weiping,WU Heqian,et al.Analytic method of graphical evaluation review technique(GERT)network to control bridgeconstruction progress[J].Journal of Chang’an University:Natural Science Edition,2003,3(5):61-63.(in Chinese)
[2]宋利萍,张俊玲,柏琳,等.城市地震成灾机制分析[J].高原地震,2005,17(2):38-43.SONG Liping,ZHANG Junling,BAI Lin,et al.Analysis for the seismic disaster mechanism of cities[J].Earthquake Research in Plateau,2005,17(2):38-43.(in Chinese)
[3]陈素文,李国强.地震次生火灾的研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(5):120-126.CHEN Suwen,LI Guoqiang.Advance in research on secondary fire of earthquake[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2008,17(5):120-126.(inChinese)
[4]荣莉莉,张继永.突发事件的不同演化模式研究[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(3):1-6.RONG Lili,ZHANG Jiyong.Research on different evolution models of emergency[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2012,21(3):1-6.(inChinese)
[5]谢自莉,马祖军.城市地震次生灾害演化机理分析及仿真研究[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(3):155-163.XIE Zili,MA Zujun.Analysis and simulation of evolution mechanism of urban post-earthquake disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2012,21(3):155-163.(in Chinese)
[6]马祖军,谢自莉.基于贝叶斯网络的城市地震次生灾害演化机理分析[J].灾害学,2012,27(4):1-5.MA Zujun,XIE Zili.Evolution mechanism of earthquake-induced urban disasters based on bayesian networks[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2012,27(4):1-5.(in Chinese)
[7]Kenzo K,Nobuyuki N.Efficient Monte Carlo simulation method of GERT-type network for project management[J].Computers&IndustrialEngineering,2002,42(11):521-531.
[8]Lin KP,Wu W,Chang C,et al.Applying fuzzy GERT with approximate fuzzy arithmetic based on the weakest t-norm operations to evaluaterepairable reliability[J].Applied Mathematical Modelling,2011,35(11):5314-5325.
[9]Hamid R A,Shamsollah A,et al.Modeling and Analysis of Mechanization Projects of Wheat Production by GERT Networks[J].AgriculturalSciences in China,2010,9(7):1078-1083.
[10]谢家平,赵忠.基于GERT随机网络的废弃回收预测模型研究[J].管理学报,2010,7(2):294-300.XIE Jiaping,ZHAO Zhong.Forecasting model for the reusing process of the discarded products based on GERT network theory[J].ChineseJournal of Management,2010,7(2):294-300.(in Chinese)
[11]邬晓光,石卫平,武和谦,等.桥梁施工进度控制随机网络解析算法[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2003,3(5):61-63.WU Xiaoguang,SHi Weiping,WU Heqian,et al.Analytic method of graphical evaluation review technique(GERT)network to control bridgeconstruction progress[J].Journal of Chang’an University:Natural Science Edition,2003,3(5):61-63.(in Chinese)
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