地震海啸危险性分析研究进展
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摘要
本文追溯地震海啸危险性分析研究的兴起与发展,介绍地震海啸危险性分析的原理和方法,综述地震海啸危险性分析的常用工具———地震海啸数值模式的研究进展,讨论目前地震海啸危险性分析研究中存在的主要困难和问题。指出建立地震海啸危险性分析不确定性的定性分析和定量评估方法,进行地震海啸危险性分析的不确定性评估,应是今后的一个重要研究方向。
The authors trace the rise and development of seismic tsunamis hazard analysis,and introduce its principle and the research progress of seismic tsunami numerical model used in it.The main difficulties as well as problems to be solved in it are also discussed in this paper.The authors point out that: establishing the qualitative and quantitative methods to estimate the uncertainty in seismic tsunami hazard analysis effectively will be one of the important research directions in the near future.
The authors trace the rise and development of seismic tsunamis hazard analysis,and introduce its principle and the research progress of seismic tsunami numerical model used in it.The main difficulties as well as problems to be solved in it are also discussed in this paper.The authors point out that: establishing the qualitative and quantitative methods to estimate the uncertainty in seismic tsunami hazard analysis effectively will be one of the important research directions in the near future.
引文
[1]叶琳,王喜年,包澄澜.中国的地震海啸及其预警服务[J].自然灾害学报,1994,3(1):100-103.
[2]叶琳,于福江,吴玮.我国海啸灾害及预警现状与建议[J].海洋预报,2005,22(增刊):147-157.
[3]TSUNAMI GLOSSARY,Intergovernmental Oceano-graphic Commission[Z].UNESCO,IOC TechnicalSereies,Paris,2008,85.
[4]Rikitake,T.and Aida,I.Tsunami hazard probability inJapan[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,1988,78:1268-1278.
[5]Ho,C.and Sung,J.H.,Simulation of prognostictsunamis on the Korean coast[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2001,28(10):2013-2016.
[6]Kurkin A.A.,Pelinovskii E.N.,Choi B.H.,and LeeJ.S.,A Comparative Estimation of the Tsunami Hazardfor the Russian Coast of the Sea of Japan Based onNumerical Simulation[J].Oceanology,2004,44(2):163-172.
[7]Annaka T.,Satake T.,Sakakiyama,K.,Yanagisawa,Shuto.N.,Logic—tree Approach for ProbabilisticTsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to theJapanese Coasts[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2007,164:577-592.
[8]Salamon A.,Rockwell T.,Ward S.N.,Guidoboni E.and Comastri A.,Tsunami Hazard Evaluation of theEastern Mediterranean-Historical Analysis and SelectedModeling[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2007,97(3):705-724.
[9]Eric L.Geist and Tomparsons.Probabilistic Analysis ofTsunami Hazards[J].Natural Hazards,2006,(37):277-314.
[10]Watts P.,Probabilistic predictions of landslide tsunamisoff Southern California[J].Marine Geology.2004,203:281-301.
[11]Zhou,Q.and W.M.Adams.Tsunami Risk Analysis forChina[J].Natural Hazards,1988,1(2):181-195.
[12]杨马陵,魏柏林.南海海域地震海啸潜在危险的探析[J].灾害学,2005a,20(3):41-46.
[13]杨马陵.广东省地震海啸危险分析与监测预警系统构想[J].华南地震,2005b,25(4):25-33.
[14]任鲁川,薛艳.我国沿海地区地震海啸危险性的初步估计[M]//中国地震趋势预测研究(2007年度).北京:地震出版社,2006:640-647.
[15]温瑞智,任叶飞.我国地震海啸危险性分析方法研究[J].世界地震工程,2007,23(1):6-11.
[16]刘迎春.中国沿海地区潜在地震海啸灾害评估[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院,2007.
[17]Yingchun Liu.et al.Tsunami hazards along Chinesecoast from potential earthquakes in South China Sea[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2007,163:233-244.
[18]Yefei Ren,Ruizhi Wen,Baofeng Zhou,DachengShi.,Deterministic Analysis of Tsunami Hazard in China[J].Science of Tsunami Hazards,2010,29(1):32-42.
[19]Goto C.,Ogawa Y.,Shuto N.and Imamura N.,Numerical method of tsunami simulation with the leap-frog scheme[Z].IUGG/IOC Time Project.IOC Manual,UNESCO 35.1997.
[20]Titov V.V.and Gonzalez F.I.,Implementation andtesting of the Method of Splitting Tsunami(MOST)model[R],NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL,1997.
[21]Titov.V.V,Synolakis.E,Numerical modeling of tidalwave runup[J].Journal of Waterway,Port,Coastal andOcean Engineering.1998,124(4):151-17l.
[22]Titov V,Gonzalez F,Bernard E,et a1.Real-timetsunami forecasting:challenges and solutions[J].NaturalHazards,2005,35(1):35-41.
[23]Liu P.L.-F.,Woo S-B.and Cho Y-S.,Computerprograms for tsunami propagation and inundation,CornellUniversity.1998[OL].http://ceeserver.cee.cornell.edu/pll-group/comcot_down.htm.
[24]Liu P.L.-F.,Wang X.M.and Salisbury A.J.,Tsunami Hazard and early warning system in South ChinaSea[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2009,36(1):2-12.
[25]Liu Y,Santos A.,Wang S.,Shi Y.,Liu H.andYuen D.,Tsunami hazards along Chinese coast frompotential earthquakes in South China Sea[J].Phys EarthPlan Int,2007,163:233-244.
[26]于福江,叶琳,王喜年,等.1994年发生在台湾海峡的一次地震海啸的数值模拟[J].海洋学报,2001,23(6):32-40.
[27]祝会兵,于颖,戴世强.海啸数值计算研究进展[J].水动力学研究与进展,2006A,2l(6):714-723.
[28]姚远,蔡树群,王盛.海啸波数值模拟的研究现状[J].海洋科学进展,2007,25(4):489-494.
[29]姚远,蔡树群,王盛安.台湾海峡一次海啸的初步数值模拟[J].热带海洋学报,2009,28(2):1-6.
[30]张超凡,石耀霖.海啸灾害的数值模拟研究[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,2008,25(3):289-296.
[31]温燕玲,朱元清.海啸传播模型与数值模拟研究进展[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(5):143-150.
[32]李伟,朱元清,王本龙,等.海啸在冲绳海槽和东海浅水大陆架地形上产生和传播的数值模拟[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(5):138-142.
[33]潘文亮,王盛安.COMCOT数值模式的介绍与应用[J].海洋预报,2009,26(3):45-52.
[34]Tinti,S.and Armigliato,A.,The use of scnarios toevaluate the tsunami impact in southern Italy[J].Mar.Geology,2003,199:221-243.
[35]Robert A.Dalrymple,Stephan T.James T.Kirby,Tsunamis and Challenge for Accurate Modeling[J].Oceanography,2006,19(1):142-151.
[36]任枭,刘瑞峰,陈运泰.一种快速测定大地震震级的方法[J].地震地磁观察与研究,2006,27(1):107-110.
[37]赵荣国、李卫平.现今震级测定偏差[J].国际地震动态,1997(12):1-8.
[38]赵荣国、李卫平.从震级偏差看震级问题[J].国际地震动态,1998(4):10-16.
[39]任鲁川,薛艳,简春林,等.南海北缘海啸波高对潜在海啸源震级偏差的敏感性[J].中国地震,2009,25(2):186-192.
[2]叶琳,于福江,吴玮.我国海啸灾害及预警现状与建议[J].海洋预报,2005,22(增刊):147-157.
[3]TSUNAMI GLOSSARY,Intergovernmental Oceano-graphic Commission[Z].UNESCO,IOC TechnicalSereies,Paris,2008,85.
[4]Rikitake,T.and Aida,I.Tsunami hazard probability inJapan[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,1988,78:1268-1278.
[5]Ho,C.and Sung,J.H.,Simulation of prognostictsunamis on the Korean coast[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2001,28(10):2013-2016.
[6]Kurkin A.A.,Pelinovskii E.N.,Choi B.H.,and LeeJ.S.,A Comparative Estimation of the Tsunami Hazardfor the Russian Coast of the Sea of Japan Based onNumerical Simulation[J].Oceanology,2004,44(2):163-172.
[7]Annaka T.,Satake T.,Sakakiyama,K.,Yanagisawa,Shuto.N.,Logic—tree Approach for ProbabilisticTsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to theJapanese Coasts[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2007,164:577-592.
[8]Salamon A.,Rockwell T.,Ward S.N.,Guidoboni E.and Comastri A.,Tsunami Hazard Evaluation of theEastern Mediterranean-Historical Analysis and SelectedModeling[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2007,97(3):705-724.
[9]Eric L.Geist and Tomparsons.Probabilistic Analysis ofTsunami Hazards[J].Natural Hazards,2006,(37):277-314.
[10]Watts P.,Probabilistic predictions of landslide tsunamisoff Southern California[J].Marine Geology.2004,203:281-301.
[11]Zhou,Q.and W.M.Adams.Tsunami Risk Analysis forChina[J].Natural Hazards,1988,1(2):181-195.
[12]杨马陵,魏柏林.南海海域地震海啸潜在危险的探析[J].灾害学,2005a,20(3):41-46.
[13]杨马陵.广东省地震海啸危险分析与监测预警系统构想[J].华南地震,2005b,25(4):25-33.
[14]任鲁川,薛艳.我国沿海地区地震海啸危险性的初步估计[M]//中国地震趋势预测研究(2007年度).北京:地震出版社,2006:640-647.
[15]温瑞智,任叶飞.我国地震海啸危险性分析方法研究[J].世界地震工程,2007,23(1):6-11.
[16]刘迎春.中国沿海地区潜在地震海啸灾害评估[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院,2007.
[17]Yingchun Liu.et al.Tsunami hazards along Chinesecoast from potential earthquakes in South China Sea[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2007,163:233-244.
[18]Yefei Ren,Ruizhi Wen,Baofeng Zhou,DachengShi.,Deterministic Analysis of Tsunami Hazard in China[J].Science of Tsunami Hazards,2010,29(1):32-42.
[19]Goto C.,Ogawa Y.,Shuto N.and Imamura N.,Numerical method of tsunami simulation with the leap-frog scheme[Z].IUGG/IOC Time Project.IOC Manual,UNESCO 35.1997.
[20]Titov V.V.and Gonzalez F.I.,Implementation andtesting of the Method of Splitting Tsunami(MOST)model[R],NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL,1997.
[21]Titov.V.V,Synolakis.E,Numerical modeling of tidalwave runup[J].Journal of Waterway,Port,Coastal andOcean Engineering.1998,124(4):151-17l.
[22]Titov V,Gonzalez F,Bernard E,et a1.Real-timetsunami forecasting:challenges and solutions[J].NaturalHazards,2005,35(1):35-41.
[23]Liu P.L.-F.,Woo S-B.and Cho Y-S.,Computerprograms for tsunami propagation and inundation,CornellUniversity.1998[OL].http://ceeserver.cee.cornell.edu/pll-group/comcot_down.htm.
[24]Liu P.L.-F.,Wang X.M.and Salisbury A.J.,Tsunami Hazard and early warning system in South ChinaSea[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2009,36(1):2-12.
[25]Liu Y,Santos A.,Wang S.,Shi Y.,Liu H.andYuen D.,Tsunami hazards along Chinese coast frompotential earthquakes in South China Sea[J].Phys EarthPlan Int,2007,163:233-244.
[26]于福江,叶琳,王喜年,等.1994年发生在台湾海峡的一次地震海啸的数值模拟[J].海洋学报,2001,23(6):32-40.
[27]祝会兵,于颖,戴世强.海啸数值计算研究进展[J].水动力学研究与进展,2006A,2l(6):714-723.
[28]姚远,蔡树群,王盛.海啸波数值模拟的研究现状[J].海洋科学进展,2007,25(4):489-494.
[29]姚远,蔡树群,王盛安.台湾海峡一次海啸的初步数值模拟[J].热带海洋学报,2009,28(2):1-6.
[30]张超凡,石耀霖.海啸灾害的数值模拟研究[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,2008,25(3):289-296.
[31]温燕玲,朱元清.海啸传播模型与数值模拟研究进展[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(5):143-150.
[32]李伟,朱元清,王本龙,等.海啸在冲绳海槽和东海浅水大陆架地形上产生和传播的数值模拟[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(5):138-142.
[33]潘文亮,王盛安.COMCOT数值模式的介绍与应用[J].海洋预报,2009,26(3):45-52.
[34]Tinti,S.and Armigliato,A.,The use of scnarios toevaluate the tsunami impact in southern Italy[J].Mar.Geology,2003,199:221-243.
[35]Robert A.Dalrymple,Stephan T.James T.Kirby,Tsunamis and Challenge for Accurate Modeling[J].Oceanography,2006,19(1):142-151.
[36]任枭,刘瑞峰,陈运泰.一种快速测定大地震震级的方法[J].地震地磁观察与研究,2006,27(1):107-110.
[37]赵荣国、李卫平.现今震级测定偏差[J].国际地震动态,1997(12):1-8.
[38]赵荣国、李卫平.从震级偏差看震级问题[J].国际地震动态,1998(4):10-16.
[39]任鲁川,薛艳,简春林,等.南海北缘海啸波高对潜在海啸源震级偏差的敏感性[J].中国地震,2009,25(2):186-192.
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