基于元胞自动机的地震触发崩塌滑坡分布规律
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摘要
为了从物理角度对地震触发崩塌滑坡分布规律的机理进行诠释,通过汶川震区典型路段考察和遥感资料解译发现:位于IX度地震烈度区,崩塌滑坡方量与出现频率之间存在良好的负幂律关系;在X度区,崩塌滑坡面积与出现频率的关系仍可用负幂律描述;在XI度区,这一关系转为对数正态分布.元胞自动机模拟表明:以扰动值递增模拟地震强度的增大,沙堆模型的动力特性也经历了幂律—幂律弱化—对数正态分布的演变过程,从而在自组织临界性的概念框架下,证明了上述不同烈度区地震触发崩塌滑坡分布概型的演变规律具有普适性,为汶川地震崩塌滑坡编目以及高烈度地震山区灾势预估等提供了科学依据.
In order to interpret the mechanism of distribution of landslides triggered by earthquake from a physical point of view,typical sections in earthquake zones in the Wenchuan earthquake were investigated,and related remote sensing data was interpreted.The result shows that there exists a negative power-law relationship between the volume and number of landslides in IX seismic intensity zone of the Wenchuan earthquake,and the same is true between the area and frequency of landslides in X intensity seismic zone.However,the relationship changes into a lognormal distribution in XI seismic intensity zone.In addition,cellular automata was used to simulate landslides.The cellular automaton simulation reveals that with the change of disturbance intensity,the dynamical mechanism of sand-pile model is from a strong power-law to a weak power law,then to a lognormal distribution.Under the conceptual framework of self-organized criticality,it is proved that the distribution model of landslides in different seismic intensity zones has a universal law.The research results may not only be used to guide inventory of landslides triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake,but also provide a scientific basis for mountain disaster assessment in high seismic intensity zones.
In order to interpret the mechanism of distribution of landslides triggered by earthquake from a physical point of view,typical sections in earthquake zones in the Wenchuan earthquake were investigated,and related remote sensing data was interpreted.The result shows that there exists a negative power-law relationship between the volume and number of landslides in IX seismic intensity zone of the Wenchuan earthquake,and the same is true between the area and frequency of landslides in X intensity seismic zone.However,the relationship changes into a lognormal distribution in XI seismic intensity zone.In addition,cellular automata was used to simulate landslides.The cellular automaton simulation reveals that with the change of disturbance intensity,the dynamical mechanism of sand-pile model is from a strong power-law to a weak power law,then to a lognormal distribution.Under the conceptual framework of self-organized criticality,it is proved that the distribution model of landslides in different seismic intensity zones has a universal law.The research results may not only be used to guide inventory of landslides triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake,but also provide a scientific basis for mountain disaster assessment in high seismic intensity zones.
引文
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[11]姚令侃,黄艺丹,杨庆华.地震触发崩塌滑坡自组织临界性研究[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2010,42(5):33-43.YAO Lingkan,HUANG Yidan,YANG Qinghua.Onthe self-organized criticality of landslids triggered byearthquake[J].Journal of Sichuan University:Engineering Science Edition,2010,42(5):33-43.
[12]CHOPARD B,DROZ M.物理系统的元胞自动机模拟[M].祝玉学,赵学龙,译.北京:清华大学出版社,2003:1-2.
[13]OLAMI Z,FEDER H,JACOB S,et al.Self-organizedcriticality in a continuous,nonconservative cellularautomaton modeling earthquakes[J].Physical ReviewLetters,1992,68(8):1244-1247.
[14]姚令侃,邱燕玲,魏永幸.青藏高原东缘进藏高等级道路面临的挑战[J].西南交通大学学报,2012,47(5):719-734.YAO Lingkan,QIU Yanling,WEI Yongxing.Challenges in construction of railway and highway fromSichuan to Tibet through eastern margin of TibetanPlateau[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2012,47(5):719-734.
[15]WANG Jian,YAO Lingkan,HUSSAIN A.Analysis ofearthquake-triggered failure mechanisms of slopes andsliding surfaces[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2010,7(3):282-290.
[2]许冲.汶川地震滑坡详细编录及其与全球其他地震滑坡事件对比[J].科技导报,2012,30(25):18-26.XU Chong.Detailed inventory of landslides triggered bythe 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and its comparison withother earthquake events in the world[J].Science&Technology Review,2012,30(25):18-26.
[3]胡元鑫,刘新荣,蒋洋,等.非完整滑坡编目三参数反Gamma概率分布模型[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2011,42(10):3176-3181.HU Yuanxin,LIU Xinrong,JIANG Yang,et al.Three-parameter inverse-Gamma probability distribution modelof incomplete landslide inventory[J].Journal of CentralSouth University:Science and Technology,2011,42(10):3176-3181.
[4]XU Chong,DAI Fuchu,XU Xiwei,et al.GIS-basedsupport vector machine modeling of earthquake-triggeredlandslide susceptibility in the Jianjiang River watershed,China[J].Geomorphology,2012,145:70-80.
[5]XU Chong,XU Xiwei,DAI Fuchu,et al.Comparisonof different models for susceptibility mapping ofearthquake triggered landslides related with the 2008Wenchuan earthquake in China[J].Computers&Geosciences,2012,46:317-329.
[6]XU Chong,XU Xiwei,DAI Fuchu,et al.Landslidehazard mapping using GIS and weight of evidence modelin Qingshui River watershed of 2008 Wenchuanearthquake struck region[J].Journal of Earth Science,2012,23(1):97-120.
[7]MALAMUD B D,TURCOTTE D L,GUZZETTI F,etal.Landslide inventories and their statistical proper-ties[J].Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,2004,29(6):687-711.
[8]BAK P,TANG Chao,WIESENFELD K.Self-organizedcriticality:an explanation of the 1/f noise[J].PhysicalReview Letters,1987,59(4):381-384.
[9]HELD G A.Experimental study of critical massfluctuations in an evolving sand-pile[J].PhysicalReview Letters,1990,65(9):1120-1123.
[10]YAO Lingkan,HUANG Yuan,LU Yang.Self-organized criticality and its application in the slopedisasters under gravity[J].Science in China Series E:Technological Sciences,2003,46(Sup.1):20-30.
[11]姚令侃,黄艺丹,杨庆华.地震触发崩塌滑坡自组织临界性研究[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2010,42(5):33-43.YAO Lingkan,HUANG Yidan,YANG Qinghua.Onthe self-organized criticality of landslids triggered byearthquake[J].Journal of Sichuan University:Engineering Science Edition,2010,42(5):33-43.
[12]CHOPARD B,DROZ M.物理系统的元胞自动机模拟[M].祝玉学,赵学龙,译.北京:清华大学出版社,2003:1-2.
[13]OLAMI Z,FEDER H,JACOB S,et al.Self-organizedcriticality in a continuous,nonconservative cellularautomaton modeling earthquakes[J].Physical ReviewLetters,1992,68(8):1244-1247.
[14]姚令侃,邱燕玲,魏永幸.青藏高原东缘进藏高等级道路面临的挑战[J].西南交通大学学报,2012,47(5):719-734.YAO Lingkan,QIU Yanling,WEI Yongxing.Challenges in construction of railway and highway fromSichuan to Tibet through eastern margin of TibetanPlateau[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2012,47(5):719-734.
[15]WANG Jian,YAO Lingkan,HUSSAIN A.Analysis ofearthquake-triggered failure mechanisms of slopes andsliding surfaces[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2010,7(3):282-290.
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