锁固体破裂标志性地震震级与峰值强度点地震震级的统计关系
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摘要
锁固体变形到膨胀点时,震群事件开始发生,在震群事件中常出现一个或两个震级显著较大的地震,即标志性地震事件.基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与孕震时空区域划分原则,以中国及其边境地区历史强震震例为源数据,得到锁固体破裂标志性地震震级Msc与峰值强度点地震震级Msf之间的统计关系为:Msf≈Msc+0.5.这为依据Msc预测Msf提供了一个简便方法.
Earthquake swarm events will initially occur when the deformation of locked patch in a fault arrives at the dilatant point.One or two obviously larger earthquakes among these events refer to the symbolic earthquake event.Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along a seismogenic fault system and division principle of seismogenic time and space region developed by us,a statistical relation between the symbolic earthquake magnitude Msc and the earthquake magnitude Msf at the peak strength of locked patch is determined from the original source data of historical strong earthquake cases in China and its border zone,i.e.Msf≈Msc+0.5.This provides a simple and convenient approach of applying Msc to predict Msf.
Earthquake swarm events will initially occur when the deformation of locked patch in a fault arrives at the dilatant point.One or two obviously larger earthquakes among these events refer to the symbolic earthquake event.Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along a seismogenic fault system and division principle of seismogenic time and space region developed by us,a statistical relation between the symbolic earthquake magnitude Msc and the earthquake magnitude Msf at the peak strength of locked patch is determined from the original source data of historical strong earthquake cases in China and its border zone,i.e.Msf≈Msc+0.5.This provides a simple and convenient approach of applying Msc to predict Msf.
引文
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[2]Wyss M.Why is earthquake prediction research not progressingfaster?[J].Tectonophysics,2001,338:217-223.
[3]李勇.基于固体潮的地震模拟预警系统的初步设计[J].地球物理学进展,2008,32(2):384-391.Li Y.A tentatine earthquake warning system for the planetEarth.[J].Progress in Geophysics,2008,32(2):384-391.)
[4]彭克银,尹祥础,和锐.用临界点理论讨论应变能加速释放现象和孕震区尺度[J].中国地震,2003,19(4):425-430.Peng K Y,Yin X C,He Y.Accelerating strain release andearthquake genesis scaling exponents from critical pointhypothesis[J].Earthquake Research in China,2003,19(4):425-430.
[5]Ben-Zion Y.Dynamic ruptures in recent models of earthquakefaults[J].Journal of the Mechanics and Physics of Solids,2001,49:2209-2244.
[6]Gross S,Rundle J.A systematic test of time-to-failure analysis[J].Geophys.J.Int.,1998,133:57-64.
[7]雷兴林,马胜利,闻学泽,等.地表水体对断层应力与地震时空分布影响的综合分析—以紫坪铺水库为例[J].地震地质,2008,30(4):1046-1064.Lei X L,Ma S L,Wen X Z,et al.Integrated analysis ofstress and regional seismicity by surface loading-a case study ofZipingpu reservoir[J].Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),2008,30:1046-1064.
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[9]吴忠良.自组织临界性与地震预测——对目前地震预测问题争论的评述(之一)[J].中国地震,1998,14(4):1-9.Wu Z L.Self-organization criticality and earthquakeprediction-a review on the current discussions aboutearthquake prediction[J].Earthquake Research in China,1998,14(4):1-9.
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[11]门可佩.1999年台湾7.6级大震与江苏—南黄海地区中强震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2002,17(1):121-126.Men Ke pei.Prediction of moderate-strong earthquakes inJiangsu-South Yellow sea area after the 1999 Taiwanearthquake of Ms 706[J].Progress in Geophysic(inChinese),2002,17(1):121-126.
[12]Mogi K.Earthquake Prediction,Tokyo:Academic Press,1985.
[13]王时标,姚振兴,王光远.多闭锁点地区地震预测唯象模型[J].地球物理学进展,1999,14(2):7-26.Wang Shi-biao,Yao Zhen-xing,Wang Guang-yuan.Thesimulation method of eatthquake prediction in the region withagroup of locked-points[J].Progress in Geophysic(inChinese),1999,14(2):7-26.
[14]楚全芝,邓志辉,杨竹转.中国大陆地震构造特点及其在地震危险性预测中的作用[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(2):395-402.Chu Quan-zhi,Deng Zhi-hui Yang Zhu-zhuan.Seimo-tectonicfeatures and their effects of the earthquake prediction inChina-Mainland.Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2007,22(2):395-402
[15]赵国泽,陈小斌,蔡军涛.电磁卫星和地震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(3):667-673.Zhao Guo-ze,Chen Xiao-bin,Cai-Jun-tao.Electromagneticobservation by satellite and earthquake prediction[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2007,22(3):664-673
[16]余怀忠.地震前兆物理模型与地震预测初步研究[R].中国地震局地质研究所博士后出站报告,2006.Yu H Z.Preliminary studies on mechanical models ofearthquake precursors and earthquake prediction[R].Postdoctorate research report,Institute of Geology,ChinaEarthquake Administration,2006
[17]门可佩.信息预测理论与新疆地区7级强震趋势研究[J].地球物理学进展,2002,17(3):418-423.Men K P.Theory of informational forecast and MS.strongearthquake trend in Xinjiang area[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2002,17(3):418-423
[18]门可佩.青藏高原北部地区7级强震的有序网络特征及其预测研究[J].地球物理学进展,2003,18(3):765-771.Men K P.Ordered network feature of M.earthquakes and itsprediction in northern part of Qinghai-Xizang plateau[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2003,18(3):765-771
[19]秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4):1001-1014.Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.Brittle failure mechanism ofmultiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system andexploration on a new way for earthquake prediction[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(4):1001-1014
[20]秦四清,泮晓华.地壳岩石剪切失稳的应力与应变准则[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(7):1767-1771.Qin S Q,Pan X H.Stress and strain instability criteria forcrustal rocks under shear condition[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2011,54(7):1767-1771
[21]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.青海、甘肃与宁夏地区未来大地震预测分析[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(4):1168-1174.Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X et al.Prediction of strongearthquakes in the Qinhai,Gansu and Ningxia regions[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(4):1168-1174
[22]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.山东、河北、河南、山西、辽宁海城与京津地区未来中强地震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(5):1539-1549.Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X et al.A forward prediction ofmoderate-sized or strong earthquakes in Shandong,Hebei,Henan,Shanxi,Haicheng in Liaoning province and Beijing-Tianjing regions[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(5):1539-1549.
[23]秦四清,薛雷,徐锡伟,等,川滇地区未来强震预测与汶川MW7.9级地震孕震过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(11):2639-2650.Qin S Q,Xue L,Xu X Wet al.A forward prediction ofstrong earthquakes in the Sichuan and Yunnan region andanalysis on the seismogenic process of the Wenchuan MW7.9earthquake[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(11):2639-2650.
[24]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.西藏地区未来强震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(6):1879-1886.Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X et al.A forward prediction ofstrong earthquakes in the Tibet region[J].Progress inGeophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(6):1879-1886.
[25]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.新疆与其边境地区、内蒙古地区及华东、华南与台湾部分地区未来强震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(1):21-31.Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et al.A forward prediction ofstrong earthquakes in the Xinjiang and its border regions,theInner Mongolia region,and certain regions of east China,south China and Taiwan[J].Progress in Geophysic,2011,26(1):21-31.
[26]秦四清,薛雷.云南盈江MS5.8级地震和缅甸MS7.2级地震预测总结及震后趋势分析[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(2):462-468.Qin S Q,Xue L.A summary of prediction for the YingjiangMs5.8 earthquake in Yunnan and the Burma Ms7.2earthquake as well as the analysis on the earthquake situationafter the earthquake[J].Progress in Geophysic(inChinese),2011,26(2),462-468.
[27]秦四清,熊巨华,薛雷,等.强震的孕育规律与孕震模式[J].地球科学与环境学报,2011,33(3):311-316.Qin S Q,Xiong J H,Xue L,et al.Seismogenic law andmode of strong earthquakes[J].Journal of Earth Sciencesand Environment,2011,33(3):311-316.
[28]秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛,等.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(3):749-758.Qin S Q,Xue L,Wang Y Yet al.Further verifications onthe brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along aseismogenic fault system and discussions on some scienceissues[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(3):749-758.
[2]Wyss M.Why is earthquake prediction research not progressingfaster?[J].Tectonophysics,2001,338:217-223.
[3]李勇.基于固体潮的地震模拟预警系统的初步设计[J].地球物理学进展,2008,32(2):384-391.Li Y.A tentatine earthquake warning system for the planetEarth.[J].Progress in Geophysics,2008,32(2):384-391.)
[4]彭克银,尹祥础,和锐.用临界点理论讨论应变能加速释放现象和孕震区尺度[J].中国地震,2003,19(4):425-430.Peng K Y,Yin X C,He Y.Accelerating strain release andearthquake genesis scaling exponents from critical pointhypothesis[J].Earthquake Research in China,2003,19(4):425-430.
[5]Ben-Zion Y.Dynamic ruptures in recent models of earthquakefaults[J].Journal of the Mechanics and Physics of Solids,2001,49:2209-2244.
[6]Gross S,Rundle J.A systematic test of time-to-failure analysis[J].Geophys.J.Int.,1998,133:57-64.
[7]雷兴林,马胜利,闻学泽,等.地表水体对断层应力与地震时空分布影响的综合分析—以紫坪铺水库为例[J].地震地质,2008,30(4):1046-1064.Lei X L,Ma S L,Wen X Z,et al.Integrated analysis ofstress and regional seismicity by surface loading-a case study ofZipingpu reservoir[J].Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),2008,30:1046-1064.
[8]Allegre C J,Mouel J L Le,Provost A.Scaling rules in rockfracture and possible implications for earthquake prediction[J].Nature,1982,297:47-49.
[9]吴忠良.自组织临界性与地震预测——对目前地震预测问题争论的评述(之一)[J].中国地震,1998,14(4):1-9.Wu Z L.Self-organization criticality and earthquakeprediction-a review on the current discussions aboutearthquake prediction[J].Earthquake Research in China,1998,14(4):1-9.
[10]Bufe C G,Varnes D J.Predictive modeling of the seismiccycle of the greater San Francisco bay region.J[J].Geophys.Res.,1993,98:9871-9883.
[11]门可佩.1999年台湾7.6级大震与江苏—南黄海地区中强震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2002,17(1):121-126.Men Ke pei.Prediction of moderate-strong earthquakes inJiangsu-South Yellow sea area after the 1999 Taiwanearthquake of Ms 706[J].Progress in Geophysic(inChinese),2002,17(1):121-126.
[12]Mogi K.Earthquake Prediction,Tokyo:Academic Press,1985.
[13]王时标,姚振兴,王光远.多闭锁点地区地震预测唯象模型[J].地球物理学进展,1999,14(2):7-26.Wang Shi-biao,Yao Zhen-xing,Wang Guang-yuan.Thesimulation method of eatthquake prediction in the region withagroup of locked-points[J].Progress in Geophysic(inChinese),1999,14(2):7-26.
[14]楚全芝,邓志辉,杨竹转.中国大陆地震构造特点及其在地震危险性预测中的作用[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(2):395-402.Chu Quan-zhi,Deng Zhi-hui Yang Zhu-zhuan.Seimo-tectonicfeatures and their effects of the earthquake prediction inChina-Mainland.Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2007,22(2):395-402
[15]赵国泽,陈小斌,蔡军涛.电磁卫星和地震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(3):667-673.Zhao Guo-ze,Chen Xiao-bin,Cai-Jun-tao.Electromagneticobservation by satellite and earthquake prediction[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2007,22(3):664-673
[16]余怀忠.地震前兆物理模型与地震预测初步研究[R].中国地震局地质研究所博士后出站报告,2006.Yu H Z.Preliminary studies on mechanical models ofearthquake precursors and earthquake prediction[R].Postdoctorate research report,Institute of Geology,ChinaEarthquake Administration,2006
[17]门可佩.信息预测理论与新疆地区7级强震趋势研究[J].地球物理学进展,2002,17(3):418-423.Men K P.Theory of informational forecast and MS.strongearthquake trend in Xinjiang area[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2002,17(3):418-423
[18]门可佩.青藏高原北部地区7级强震的有序网络特征及其预测研究[J].地球物理学进展,2003,18(3):765-771.Men K P.Ordered network feature of M.earthquakes and itsprediction in northern part of Qinghai-Xizang plateau[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2003,18(3):765-771
[19]秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4):1001-1014.Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.Brittle failure mechanism ofmultiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system andexploration on a new way for earthquake prediction[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(4):1001-1014
[20]秦四清,泮晓华.地壳岩石剪切失稳的应力与应变准则[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(7):1767-1771.Qin S Q,Pan X H.Stress and strain instability criteria forcrustal rocks under shear condition[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2011,54(7):1767-1771
[21]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.青海、甘肃与宁夏地区未来大地震预测分析[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(4):1168-1174.Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X et al.Prediction of strongearthquakes in the Qinhai,Gansu and Ningxia regions[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(4):1168-1174
[22]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.山东、河北、河南、山西、辽宁海城与京津地区未来中强地震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(5):1539-1549.Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X et al.A forward prediction ofmoderate-sized or strong earthquakes in Shandong,Hebei,Henan,Shanxi,Haicheng in Liaoning province and Beijing-Tianjing regions[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(5):1539-1549.
[23]秦四清,薛雷,徐锡伟,等,川滇地区未来强震预测与汶川MW7.9级地震孕震过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(11):2639-2650.Qin S Q,Xue L,Xu X Wet al.A forward prediction ofstrong earthquakes in the Sichuan and Yunnan region andanalysis on the seismogenic process of the Wenchuan MW7.9earthquake[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(11):2639-2650.
[24]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.西藏地区未来强震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(6):1879-1886.Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X et al.A forward prediction ofstrong earthquakes in the Tibet region[J].Progress inGeophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(6):1879-1886.
[25]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.新疆与其边境地区、内蒙古地区及华东、华南与台湾部分地区未来强震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(1):21-31.Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et al.A forward prediction ofstrong earthquakes in the Xinjiang and its border regions,theInner Mongolia region,and certain regions of east China,south China and Taiwan[J].Progress in Geophysic,2011,26(1):21-31.
[26]秦四清,薛雷.云南盈江MS5.8级地震和缅甸MS7.2级地震预测总结及震后趋势分析[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(2):462-468.Qin S Q,Xue L.A summary of prediction for the YingjiangMs5.8 earthquake in Yunnan and the Burma Ms7.2earthquake as well as the analysis on the earthquake situationafter the earthquake[J].Progress in Geophysic(inChinese),2011,26(2),462-468.
[27]秦四清,熊巨华,薛雷,等.强震的孕育规律与孕震模式[J].地球科学与环境学报,2011,33(3):311-316.Qin S Q,Xiong J H,Xue L,et al.Seismogenic law andmode of strong earthquakes[J].Journal of Earth Sciencesand Environment,2011,33(3):311-316.
[28]秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛,等.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(3):749-758.Qin S Q,Xue L,Wang Y Yet al.Further verifications onthe brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along aseismogenic fault system and discussions on some scienceissues[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(3):749-758.
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