北天山地震带测震学预测方案初探

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英文篇名：PRIMARY DISCUSSION ON SEISMOLOGICAL PREDICTION IN NORTH OF TIANSHAN SEISMIC BELT 中文刊名：高原地震 英文刊名：Plateau Earthquake Research 作者：周波 英文作者：ZHOU Bo(Earthquake Administration of Shihezi City ; Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region ; Shihezi 832000 ; China) 中文关键词：新疆 ; 北天山地震带 ; 测震学 ; 地震预测 英文关键词：Xinjiang ; North of Tianshan seismic belt ; Seismometry ; Earthquake prediction 出版日期：2011-03-15 机构：新疆维吾尔自治区石河子市地震局; 年：2011 期：01 出版单位：高原地震

摘要

基于测震学Ab值、地震异常变化及空区等,对新疆北天山地震带1970年以来5级以上地震进行了系统分析,形成了该区中强震初步预测方案,即:新疆北天山地震带西区Ab值低于均值半年,东区Ab值低于均值3年;出现3级以上地震空区;2°×2°异型区内地震异常增强;出现6个月以上地震平静,就可综合考虑作出5级以上地震的预报。
Based on the seismic Ab value,anomalies and seismic gaps,the earthquakes with Ms≥ 5.0 since 1970 in north of Tianshan seismic belt are analyzed,and got the middle-strong earthquakes prediction as following: if Ab value in the west of the belt is lower than the mean value for half a year;or Ab value in the east of the belt is lower than the mean value for three years;or it appears Ms≥3.0 earthquake gaps;or the earthquake anomalies are strengthened in 2° ×2° precursory area;or it appears earthquake quiet for six months,the earthquakes with Ms≥5.0 may be predicted in the area.

引文

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