四川芦山M_s 7.0级地震灾情快速评估与反思
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摘要
在四川芦山Ms 7.0级地震震后第一时间启动了灾情快速评估,对地震烈度图、受灾人口分布及比例、房屋倒损分布及比例、伤亡人口分布、道路损毁等灾情进行了演进式4次评估。评估过程充分考虑数据的完备性,从数据不完备情况下的初步定性评估到数据较完备情况下的定量评估,并将第4次评估结果与2013年4月23日民政部公布数据相比:受灾人口评估准确度为95%、房屋倒损评估准确度为73.3%。继玉树地震灾情评估之后,再次验证了本项目组开发的地震灾情快速评估体系(模型、方法、软件)的实用性。分析灾情评估过程中存在的问题,本文对其进行了反思并指明了解决办法和工作方向。
We initiated the disaster assessment of Lushan M s 7.0 earthquake immediately after the shocking.The disaster situations including the ratio and distribution of affected population,the ratio of damaged houses,the distribution of casualties and the damaged roads were estimated for four times after seismic intensity was mapped.The whole assessment procedure,referring to the availability of data,was developed from qualitative assessment to quantitative assessment.As compared to the announced data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs,the accuracy of rapid assessment on affected population was 95%,that of damaged houses was 73.3%.The assessment system,including the models,methods and softwares,was validated to be practical after the successful assessment of Yushu earthquake,2010.In addition,The problems existed in the assessment were rethought,and the solution and direction of the earthquake situations assessment were also put forward.
We initiated the disaster assessment of Lushan M s 7.0 earthquake immediately after the shocking.The disaster situations including the ratio and distribution of affected population,the ratio of damaged houses,the distribution of casualties and the damaged roads were estimated for four times after seismic intensity was mapped.The whole assessment procedure,referring to the availability of data,was developed from qualitative assessment to quantitative assessment.As compared to the announced data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs,the accuracy of rapid assessment on affected population was 95%,that of damaged houses was 73.3%.The assessment system,including the models,methods and softwares,was validated to be practical after the successful assessment of Yushu earthquake,2010.In addition,The problems existed in the assessment were rethought,and the solution and direction of the earthquake situations assessment were also put forward.
引文
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[18]刘欢,徐中春,吴绍洪,等.基于GIS的中国地震灾害人口风险性分析[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(3):368-374.Liu Huan,Xu Zhongchun,Wu Shaohong,et al.Progress in Geography,2012,31(3):368-374.
[2]刘欣,谢庆胜.基于GIS技术的快速震害评估方法[J].灾害学,2002,17(3):26-29.Liu Xin,Xie Qingsheng.Journal of Catastrophology,2002,17(3):26-29.
[3]李德仁.对地观测与抗震救灾[J].测绘科学.2009,34(1):8-10.Li Deren.Science of surveying and mapping,2009,34(1):8-10.
[4]李萍,陶夏新,颜世菊.基于3S技术的震害快速评估[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(3):110-114.Li Ping,Tao Xiaxin,Yan Shiju.Journal of Natural Disasters,2007,16(3):110-114.
[5]陈文凯,何少林,周中红.基于多源数据的震害快速评估方法探讨[J].西北地震学报,2010,32(1):76-82.Chen Wenkai,He Shaolin,Zhou Zhonghong.Northwest Seismological Journal,2010,32(1):76-82.
[6]吴立新,李志锋,王植,等.地震灾情快速评估方法和应用:以玉树地震为例[J].科技导报,2010,28(24):38-43.Wu Lixin,Li Zhifeng,Wang Zhi,et al.Science&Technology Review,2010,28(24):38-43.
[7]Wang Z,Li Z F,Shen Y L,et al.Event-driven observations and comprehensive evaluation for natural disaster assessment in china[C].International Archives of the Photogrammetry,Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences,Melbourne,Australia,August25-Septem-ber1,2012.
[8]Shen Y L,Wu L X,Li Z F,et al.3D visualization of seismic buildings in Yushu earthquake for disaster management[C].Multimedia Technology(ICMT),Ningbo,China,October29-31,2010.
[9]雷建成,高孟潭,俞言祥.四川及邻区地震动衰减关系[J].地震学报,2007,29(5):500-511.Lei Jiancheng,Gao Mengtan,Yu Yanxiang.Acta Seismologica Sinica,2007,29(5):500-511.
[10]范一大,杨思全,王磊,等.汶川地震应急监测评估方法研究[J].遥感学报,2008,12(6):858-864.Fan Yida,Yang Siquan,Wang Lei,et al.Journal of Remote Sensing,2008,12(6):858-864.
[11]马玉宏,谢礼立.地震人员伤亡估算方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2000,20(4):140-147.Ma Yuhong,Xie Lili.Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2000,20(4):140-147.
[12]尹之潜.结构易损性分类和未来地震灾害估计[J].中国地震,1996,12(1):49-55.Yin Zhijian.Earthquake in China,1996,12(1):49-55.
[13]徐国栋,方伟华,史培军,等.汶川地震损失快速评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(6):74-83.Xu Guodong,Fang Weihua,Shi Peijun,et al.Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2008,28(6):74-83.
[14]徐国栋,袁艺,方伟华,等.玉树7.1级地震震后损失快速评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,2011(1):114-123.Xu Guodong,Yuan Yi,Fang Weihua,et al.Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2011(1):114-123.
[15]聂承静,杨林生,李海蓉.中国地震灾害宏观人口脆弱性评估[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(3):375-382.Nie Chengjing,Yang Linsheng,Li Hairong.Progress in Geography,2012,31(3):375-382.
[16]Xu Z C,Wu S H,Dai E F.Quantitative assessment of seismic mortality risks in China[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology.2011,2(1):83-90.
[17]Kircher C A,Whitman R V,Holmes W T.HAZUS earthquake loss estimation methods[J].Natural Hazards Review,2006,7(2):45-59.
[18]刘欢,徐中春,吴绍洪,等.基于GIS的中国地震灾害人口风险性分析[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(3):368-374.Liu Huan,Xu Zhongchun,Wu Shaohong,et al.Progress in Geography,2012,31(3):368-374.
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