量纲分析应用于地震预测的探索
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摘要
加卸载响应比(LURR)的基本思路是希望能够通过刻画震源区介质的损伤程度,反映地震孕育的进程,从而预测地震.近30年来,很多人对加卸载响应比做了大量基础研究,取得了一系列新的进展.加卸载响应比在地震预测实践中也取得了一定的效果,异常区与地震发生的位置有较好的对应性,但是预测效果仍不够理想.究其原因主要是:在实际预测中对当地的地球物理情况考虑的不够.本文采用量纲分析与加卸载响应比结合的方法,综合考虑当地的地球物理情况,例如剪应变率和平均地震波能量等因素的影响.文中选取1970年以来发生在中国大陆的34个震例资料,通过分析得到了与发震震级和时间相关的无量纲量π1和π3,根据对实际数据的拟合,π1和π3均与震级成指数关系.在应用于地震预测实践时,首先根据LURR空间扫描结果选取异常区,然后确定异常区的地球物理参数,通过π1确定震级M,再由π3确定发震时间T.
The Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR) theory is a new method in earthquake prediction.LURR is defined as the medium′s response to loading divided by the response to unloading.For the earth medium,the earth tide provides a natrual way to load and unload.Benioff strain is selected as the response quantity.Through space-time scanning in Chinese mainland as well as other regions,the abnormal region where an earthquake may occur can be got.Then we hope the LURR in the abnormal rigon can reflect the preparation process of earthquake through depicting the damage of seismogenic zone,and then predict earthquake.It′s about thirty years since LURR was put forward.These years many people have done a series research on LURR,and have got some achievements.In practice of earthquake prediction,LURR has achieved success to some extent.Many earthquakes occurred in the abnormal zones from LURR′s space-time scanning.But the result is not as good as we wished,the main reason is that we don′t consider the geophysical condition enough.In this paper,we conbine dimensional analysis with LURR method,considering the local geophysical condition,for example the shear strain rate and the average seismic wave energy etc.Using the data of 34 seismic cases which occured in Chinese mainland since 1970,we obtain two dimensionless quantities π1 and π3 related with the earthquake magnitude and occurrence time.Through the process of data fitting,the relationships between π1 and magnitude and between π3 and occurrence time have been obtained.Applying the result to earthquake prediction,we should determine the seismogenic zone according to LURR′s spce-time scanning result at first;then after determining the geophysical parameters of the specific seismogenic zone,we can get the magnitude and the the occurrence time for the future earthquake through π1 and π3 separately.
The Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR) theory is a new method in earthquake prediction.LURR is defined as the medium′s response to loading divided by the response to unloading.For the earth medium,the earth tide provides a natrual way to load and unload.Benioff strain is selected as the response quantity.Through space-time scanning in Chinese mainland as well as other regions,the abnormal region where an earthquake may occur can be got.Then we hope the LURR in the abnormal rigon can reflect the preparation process of earthquake through depicting the damage of seismogenic zone,and then predict earthquake.It′s about thirty years since LURR was put forward.These years many people have done a series research on LURR,and have got some achievements.In practice of earthquake prediction,LURR has achieved success to some extent.Many earthquakes occurred in the abnormal zones from LURR′s space-time scanning.But the result is not as good as we wished,the main reason is that we don′t consider the geophysical condition enough.In this paper,we conbine dimensional analysis with LURR method,considering the local geophysical condition,for example the shear strain rate and the average seismic wave energy etc.Using the data of 34 seismic cases which occured in Chinese mainland since 1970,we obtain two dimensionless quantities π1 and π3 related with the earthquake magnitude and occurrence time.Through the process of data fitting,the relationships between π1 and magnitude and between π3 and occurrence time have been obtained.Applying the result to earthquake prediction,we should determine the seismogenic zone according to LURR′s spce-time scanning result at first;then after determining the geophysical parameters of the specific seismogenic zone,we can get the magnitude and the the occurrence time for the future earthquake through π1 and π3 separately.
引文
[1]尹祥础,地震预测新途径的探索.中国地震,1987,3(1):1-7.Yin X C.The new approach of earthquake prediction.Earthquake Research in China(in Chinese),1987,3(1):1-7.
[2]尹祥础,尹灿.非线性系统失稳的前兆与地震预报——响应比理论及其应用.中国科学B辑,1991,21(5):512-518.Yin X C,Yin C.The precursor of instability for nonlinearsystem and earthquake prediction—load/unload responseratio theory and its application.J.Science in China(SeriesB)(in Chinese),1991,21(5):512-518.
[3]尹祥础,陈学忠,尹灿.加卸载响应比——一个刻划构造运动稳定性的新参数及其在地质灾害预测中的应用.地球物理学进展,1993,8(4):90-96.Yin X C,Chen X Z,Yin C.Loading and unloading responseratio——a new parameter determing the degree of stability oftectonic movement and its application to prediction ofgeological disasters.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),1993,8(4):90-96.
[4]尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平等.加卸载响应比─一种新的地震预报方法.地球物理学报,1994,37(6):767-775.Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,et al.The load-unloadresponse ratio theory:a new approach to earthquakeprediction.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1994,37(6):767-775.
[5]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P.The load/unload responseratio(LURR)theory and its application to earthquakeprediction.Journal of Earthquake Prediction Research,1994,3(3):325-333.
[6]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,et al.A new approach toearthquake prediction—the load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory.Pure Applies Geophysiscs,1995,145(3-4):701-715.
[7]施行觉,许和明,万永中等.模拟引潮力作用下的岩石破裂特征─加卸载响应比理论的实验研究.地球物理学报,1994,37(5):633-637.Shi X J,Xu H M,Wan Y Z,et al.The characteristic of rockfracture under simulated tide force─laboratory study on thetheory of loading and unloading response ratio.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1994,37(5):633-637.
[8]尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平.加卸载响应比理论及其在地震预测中的应用研究进展.地球物理学报,1994,37(S1):223-230.Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P.The development of load-unload response ratio theory and its application to earthquakeprediction.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1994,37(S1):223-230.
[9]施行觉,卢振刚,许和明.岩石非线性破裂的衰减特征.地球物理学报,1996,39(S1):231-237.Shi X J,Lu Z G,Xu H M.The attenuation characteristic ofrock′s non-linear fracture.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1996,39(S1):231-237.
[10]王裕仓,尹祥础,彭克银等.加卸载响应比的数值模拟.地球物理学报,1999,42(5):669-676.Wang Y C,Yin X C,Peng K Y,et al.Numerical simulationon load/unload response ratio theory.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1999,42(5):669-676.
[11]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Wang Y C,et al.Development of a newapproach to earthquake prediction—load/unload responseratio(LURR)theory.Pure and Applies Geophysiscs,2000,157(11-12):2365-2383.
[12]Yin X C,Mora P,Peng K Y,et al.Load-unload responseratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical regionscaling and earthquake prediction.Pure and AppliedGeophysics,2002,159(10):2511-2523.
[13]Yu H Z,Cheng J,Zhu Q Y,et al.Critical sensitivity ofload/unload response ratio and stress accumulation beforelarge earthquakes:example of the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuanearthquake.Natural Hazards,2011,58(1):251-267.
[14]Yu H Z,Zhu Q Y.A probabilistic approach for earthquakepotential evaluation based on the Load/Unload Responseratio method.Concurrency and Computation:Practice andExperience,2010,22(12):1520-1533.
[15]Yin X C,Zhang L P,Zhang H H,et al.LURR's twentyyears and its perspective.Pure and Applied Geophysics,2006,163(11-12):2317-2341.
[16]张浪平,余怀忠,尹祥础等.加卸载响应比方法在结构灾变预测中的应用.工程力学,2010,27(3):228-235.Zhang L P,Yu H Z,Yin X C,et al.Application of the load/unload response ratio method in catastrophic failure predictionof structures.Engineering Mechanics(in Chinese),2010,27(3):228-235.
[17]Zhang H H,Yin X C,Liang N G,et al.Acoustic emissionexperiments of rock failure under load simulating thehypocenter condition.Pure and Applied Geophysics,2006,163(11-12):2389-2406.
[18]尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平等.关东等地区加卸载响应比的时间变化及其预测意义.中国地震,1996,12(3):331-334.Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,et al.The temporal variationof LURR in Kanto and other regions in Japan and itsapplication to the earthquake prediction.EarthquakeResearch in China(in Chinese),1996,12(3):331-334.
[19]宋治平,尹祥础,王裕仓等.美国加州地区地震前加卸载响应比的时空演化特征及预测意义.地震学报,2000,22(6):588-595.Song Z P,Yin X C,Wang Y C,et al.The tempo-spatialevolution characteristics of the load/unload response ratiobefore strong earthquakes in California of America and itspredicting implications.Acta Seismological Sinica(inChinese),2000,22(6):588-595.
[20]尹祥础,张浪平,张永仙等.大地震前LURR的大时空异常—预测中国大陆未来大地震的探讨.∥中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2009年度).北京:地震出版社,2008:144-150.Yin X C,Zhang L P,Zhang Y X,et al.LURR anomoly withgreat tempo-spatial scale before large Earthquake—Predictionof the upcoming great earthquake in the Chinese mainland.∥The Researches on Prediction of the Strong EarthquakeTendency for Chinese Mainland in 2009(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,2008:144-150.
[21]张晖辉,尹祥础,梁乃刚.中国大陆地区中强地震前加卸载响应比异常时间尺度的统计研究.中国地震,2005,21(4):486-495.Zhang H H,Yin X C,Liang N G.Statistic study of LURRanomaly temporal scale before moderately strong earthquakeson the Chinese mainland.Earthquake Research in China(inChinese),2005,21(4):486-495.
[22]Sedov L I.Similarity and Dimensional Methods inMechanics.London:Academic Press,1959.
[23]钱伟长.应用数学.安徽:科学技术出版社,1993.Qian W C.Applied Mathematics(in Cinese).Anhui:Scienceand Technology Press,1993.
[24]谈庆明.量纲分析.合肥:中国科学技术大学,2007.Tan Q M.Dimensional analysis(in Cinese).Hefei:Universityof Science and Technology of China,2007.
[25]沈正康,王敏,甘卫军等.中国大陆现今构造应变率场及其动力学成因研究.地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):93-100.Shen Z K,Wang M,Gan W J,et al.Contemporary tectonicstrain rate field of Chinese continent and its geodynamicimplications.Earth Science Frontiers(in Chinese),2003,10(special):93-100.
[26]Gu G H,Shen X H,Wang M,et al.General characteristicsof the recent horizontal crustal movement in Chinesemainland.Acta Seismological Sinica,2001,23(4):362-369.
[2]尹祥础,尹灿.非线性系统失稳的前兆与地震预报——响应比理论及其应用.中国科学B辑,1991,21(5):512-518.Yin X C,Yin C.The precursor of instability for nonlinearsystem and earthquake prediction—load/unload responseratio theory and its application.J.Science in China(SeriesB)(in Chinese),1991,21(5):512-518.
[3]尹祥础,陈学忠,尹灿.加卸载响应比——一个刻划构造运动稳定性的新参数及其在地质灾害预测中的应用.地球物理学进展,1993,8(4):90-96.Yin X C,Chen X Z,Yin C.Loading and unloading responseratio——a new parameter determing the degree of stability oftectonic movement and its application to prediction ofgeological disasters.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),1993,8(4):90-96.
[4]尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平等.加卸载响应比─一种新的地震预报方法.地球物理学报,1994,37(6):767-775.Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,et al.The load-unloadresponse ratio theory:a new approach to earthquakeprediction.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1994,37(6):767-775.
[5]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P.The load/unload responseratio(LURR)theory and its application to earthquakeprediction.Journal of Earthquake Prediction Research,1994,3(3):325-333.
[6]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,et al.A new approach toearthquake prediction—the load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory.Pure Applies Geophysiscs,1995,145(3-4):701-715.
[7]施行觉,许和明,万永中等.模拟引潮力作用下的岩石破裂特征─加卸载响应比理论的实验研究.地球物理学报,1994,37(5):633-637.Shi X J,Xu H M,Wan Y Z,et al.The characteristic of rockfracture under simulated tide force─laboratory study on thetheory of loading and unloading response ratio.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1994,37(5):633-637.
[8]尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平.加卸载响应比理论及其在地震预测中的应用研究进展.地球物理学报,1994,37(S1):223-230.Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P.The development of load-unload response ratio theory and its application to earthquakeprediction.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1994,37(S1):223-230.
[9]施行觉,卢振刚,许和明.岩石非线性破裂的衰减特征.地球物理学报,1996,39(S1):231-237.Shi X J,Lu Z G,Xu H M.The attenuation characteristic ofrock′s non-linear fracture.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1996,39(S1):231-237.
[10]王裕仓,尹祥础,彭克银等.加卸载响应比的数值模拟.地球物理学报,1999,42(5):669-676.Wang Y C,Yin X C,Peng K Y,et al.Numerical simulationon load/unload response ratio theory.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1999,42(5):669-676.
[11]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Wang Y C,et al.Development of a newapproach to earthquake prediction—load/unload responseratio(LURR)theory.Pure and Applies Geophysiscs,2000,157(11-12):2365-2383.
[12]Yin X C,Mora P,Peng K Y,et al.Load-unload responseratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical regionscaling and earthquake prediction.Pure and AppliedGeophysics,2002,159(10):2511-2523.
[13]Yu H Z,Cheng J,Zhu Q Y,et al.Critical sensitivity ofload/unload response ratio and stress accumulation beforelarge earthquakes:example of the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuanearthquake.Natural Hazards,2011,58(1):251-267.
[14]Yu H Z,Zhu Q Y.A probabilistic approach for earthquakepotential evaluation based on the Load/Unload Responseratio method.Concurrency and Computation:Practice andExperience,2010,22(12):1520-1533.
[15]Yin X C,Zhang L P,Zhang H H,et al.LURR's twentyyears and its perspective.Pure and Applied Geophysics,2006,163(11-12):2317-2341.
[16]张浪平,余怀忠,尹祥础等.加卸载响应比方法在结构灾变预测中的应用.工程力学,2010,27(3):228-235.Zhang L P,Yu H Z,Yin X C,et al.Application of the load/unload response ratio method in catastrophic failure predictionof structures.Engineering Mechanics(in Chinese),2010,27(3):228-235.
[17]Zhang H H,Yin X C,Liang N G,et al.Acoustic emissionexperiments of rock failure under load simulating thehypocenter condition.Pure and Applied Geophysics,2006,163(11-12):2389-2406.
[18]尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平等.关东等地区加卸载响应比的时间变化及其预测意义.中国地震,1996,12(3):331-334.Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,et al.The temporal variationof LURR in Kanto and other regions in Japan and itsapplication to the earthquake prediction.EarthquakeResearch in China(in Chinese),1996,12(3):331-334.
[19]宋治平,尹祥础,王裕仓等.美国加州地区地震前加卸载响应比的时空演化特征及预测意义.地震学报,2000,22(6):588-595.Song Z P,Yin X C,Wang Y C,et al.The tempo-spatialevolution characteristics of the load/unload response ratiobefore strong earthquakes in California of America and itspredicting implications.Acta Seismological Sinica(inChinese),2000,22(6):588-595.
[20]尹祥础,张浪平,张永仙等.大地震前LURR的大时空异常—预测中国大陆未来大地震的探讨.∥中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2009年度).北京:地震出版社,2008:144-150.Yin X C,Zhang L P,Zhang Y X,et al.LURR anomoly withgreat tempo-spatial scale before large Earthquake—Predictionof the upcoming great earthquake in the Chinese mainland.∥The Researches on Prediction of the Strong EarthquakeTendency for Chinese Mainland in 2009(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,2008:144-150.
[21]张晖辉,尹祥础,梁乃刚.中国大陆地区中强地震前加卸载响应比异常时间尺度的统计研究.中国地震,2005,21(4):486-495.Zhang H H,Yin X C,Liang N G.Statistic study of LURRanomaly temporal scale before moderately strong earthquakeson the Chinese mainland.Earthquake Research in China(inChinese),2005,21(4):486-495.
[22]Sedov L I.Similarity and Dimensional Methods inMechanics.London:Academic Press,1959.
[23]钱伟长.应用数学.安徽:科学技术出版社,1993.Qian W C.Applied Mathematics(in Cinese).Anhui:Scienceand Technology Press,1993.
[24]谈庆明.量纲分析.合肥:中国科学技术大学,2007.Tan Q M.Dimensional analysis(in Cinese).Hefei:Universityof Science and Technology of China,2007.
[25]沈正康,王敏,甘卫军等.中国大陆现今构造应变率场及其动力学成因研究.地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):93-100.Shen Z K,Wang M,Gan W J,et al.Contemporary tectonicstrain rate field of Chinese continent and its geodynamicimplications.Earth Science Frontiers(in Chinese),2003,10(special):93-100.
[26]Gu G H,Shen X H,Wang M,et al.General characteristicsof the recent horizontal crustal movement in Chinesemainland.Acta Seismological Sinica,2001,23(4):362-369.
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