地震预报实验场:科学问题与科学目标
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摘要
本文简要回顾了以往地震预报实验场的经验教训,讨论了新一代地震预报实验场的实施策略。汲取汶川地震的经验启示,本文提出"地震博弈"策略,即考虑中长期地震预测的可用性与不确定性,在监测与实验系统设计中考虑地震活动和地震构造相依的区域模型。对于特定的活动断裂或活动地块边界带的潜在强震段落,设置适应多种孕震模型的"想定地震破裂",针对地震孕育的"想定模式"设计观测项目和监测系统。这一系统以地震成因和孕震模型的有效约束、"预期"前兆的有效监测、预测/预报效能的有效检验为导向。从技术角度,本文提出将地震预报实验场作为一个"大科学工程",强调复杂的多层次、多组分技术系统性能的稳健性,以及为确保与地震有效的"近距离接触"的系统可持续性。
This article briefly reviews the lessons and experiences of the previously installed earthquake prediction experiment sites,and discusses on the strategies for the planning and implementation of the new generation earthquake prediction experiment sites.Learning from the lessons and experiences of the Wenchuan earthquake,one of the concepts proposed is the strategy of 'playing games with earthquakes ',that is,given the usefulness and uncertainties of intermediate-term medium-range earthquake forecast,region-specific models of seismic activity and seismo-tectonics are considered in the design of the monitoring and experiment system.For a certain segment of active fault or block boundary zone which accommodates future earthquakes,a 'rupture scenario'is designed to provide different versions of the earthquake preparation model.Based on the earthquake preparation scenario,detection programs and monitoring systems are designed.The system is to be oriented at the effective constraint of the seismogenis model and models for earthquake preparation,the effective monitoring of 'expected'anomalies,and the effective test of the forecast/prediction schemes.In the perspective of technology,the experiment site is treated as a 'big-science'device,emphasizing the robustness of the performance of the system with complex multi-layer and multi-component structures,and the sustainable functioning of the system ensuring the effective 'close-in contact'with earthquakes.
This article briefly reviews the lessons and experiences of the previously installed earthquake prediction experiment sites,and discusses on the strategies for the planning and implementation of the new generation earthquake prediction experiment sites.Learning from the lessons and experiences of the Wenchuan earthquake,one of the concepts proposed is the strategy of 'playing games with earthquakes ',that is,given the usefulness and uncertainties of intermediate-term medium-range earthquake forecast,region-specific models of seismic activity and seismo-tectonics are considered in the design of the monitoring and experiment system.For a certain segment of active fault or block boundary zone which accommodates future earthquakes,a 'rupture scenario'is designed to provide different versions of the earthquake preparation model.Based on the earthquake preparation scenario,detection programs and monitoring systems are designed.The system is to be oriented at the effective constraint of the seismogenis model and models for earthquake preparation,the effective monitoring of 'expected'anomalies,and the effective test of the forecast/prediction schemes.In the perspective of technology,the experiment site is treated as a 'big-science'device,emphasizing the robustness of the performance of the system with complex multi-layer and multi-component structures,and the sustainable functioning of the system ensuring the effective 'close-in contact'with earthquakes.
引文
[1]刘杰,2009,个人通讯。
[2]http://www.iaspei.org/cape_town_2009/Jordan_IASPEI_Final.pdf
[3]Hoshiba,M.,2006.Current strategy for prediction of Tokai earthquake and its recent topics.http://cais.gsi.go.jp/UJNR/6th/orally/O04_UJNR_Hoshiba.pdf.
杜方、闻学泽、张培震等,2009,2008年汶川8.0级地震前横跨龙门山断裂带的震间形变,地球物理学报,52(11),2729～2738。
蒋海昆、苗青壮、吴琼等,2009,基于震例的前兆统计特征分析,地震学报,31(3),253～267。
刘桂萍,2010,关于我国地震预测预报发展的几点思考,地震,30(1),1～9。
孙其政、吴书贵(主编),2007,中国地震监测预测40年(1966～2006),490～491,北京:地震出版社。
吴忠良、蒋长胜,2006,地震前兆检验的地球动力学问题——对地震预测问题争论的评述(之三),中国地震,22(3),236～241。
张国民、马宏生、王辉等,2005,中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动,地球物理学报,48(3),602～610。
张培震、闻学泽、徐锡伟等,2009,2008年汶川8.0级特大地震孕育和发生的多单元组合模式,科学通报,54(7),944～953。
Bakun W.H.,Aagaard B.,Dost B.et al,2005,Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the2004Parkfieldearthquake,Nature,437,969～974.
Davis J.F.,Somerville P.,1982,Comparison of earthquake prediction approaches in the Tokai area of Japan and in California,Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,72,S367～S392.
Field E.H.(eds.),2007,Special Issue-Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models,Seism.Res.Lett.,78(1),1～140.
Harris R.A.(eds.),1998,Special Section-Stress Triggers,Stress Shadows,and Implication for Seismic Hazard,J.Geophys.Res.,103,24347～24572.
Harris R.A.,2003,Stress triggers,stress shadows,and seismic hazard,In:Lee,W.H.K.,Kanamori,H.,Jennings,P.C.and Kisslinger,C.(eds.),International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology,1217～1232,Amsterdam:Academic Press.
Johnson K.M.,Segall P.,Yu S.B.,2005,A viscoelastic earthquake cycle model for Taiwan,J.Geophys.Res.,110,B10404,doi:10.1029/2004JB003516.
Langbein J.,Gwyther R.,Hart R.H.G.et al,1999,Slip rate increase at Parkfield in1993detected by high-precision EDMand borehole tensor strainmeters,Geophys,Res.Lett.,26,2529～2532.
Lin A.,Ouchi T.,Chen A.et al,2001,Nature of the fault jog inferred from a deformed well in the northern Chelungpu surfacerupture zone,related to the1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,ML7.3earthquake,Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,91,959～965.
Ma K.F.,Mori J.,Lee S.J.et al,2001,Spatial and temporal distribution of slip for the1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake,Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,91,1069～1087.
Nadeau R.M.,Foxall W.,McEvilly T.V.,1995,Clustering and periodic recurrence of microseismicities on the San Andreasfault at Parkfield,California.Science,267,503～507.
Niu F.,Silver P.G.,Nadeau R.M.et al,2003,Migration of seismic scatterers associated with the1993Parkfield aseismictransient event,Nature,426,544～548.
Olson E.L.,Allen R.M.,2005,The deterministic nature of earthquake rupture,Nature,438,212～215.
Pandolfi D.,Bean C.J.,Saccorott G.,2006,Coda wave interferometric detection of seismic velocity changes associated with the1999M=3.6event at Mt.Vesuvius,J.Geophys.Res.,33,L06306,doi:10.1029/2005GL025355.
Roeloffs E.,2000,The Parkfield California earthquake experiment:An update in2000,Current Science,79,1226～1236.
Schaff D.P.,Richards P.G.,2004,Repeating seismic events in China,Science,303,1176～1178.
Schwartz S.Y.,Rokosky J.M.,2007,Slow slip events and seismic tremor at Circum-Pacific subduction zones,Rev.Geophys.,45,RG3004,doi:10.1029/2006RG000208.
Shin T.C.,Teng T.,2001,An overview of the1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake,Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,91,895～913.
Wyss M.,Dmowska R.(eds.),1997,Special Issue-Earthquake Prediction,State-of-the-art,Pure appl.Geophys.,149,1～264.
[2]http://www.iaspei.org/cape_town_2009/Jordan_IASPEI_Final.pdf
[3]Hoshiba,M.,2006.Current strategy for prediction of Tokai earthquake and its recent topics.http://cais.gsi.go.jp/UJNR/6th/orally/O04_UJNR_Hoshiba.pdf.
杜方、闻学泽、张培震等,2009,2008年汶川8.0级地震前横跨龙门山断裂带的震间形变,地球物理学报,52(11),2729～2738。
蒋海昆、苗青壮、吴琼等,2009,基于震例的前兆统计特征分析,地震学报,31(3),253～267。
刘桂萍,2010,关于我国地震预测预报发展的几点思考,地震,30(1),1～9。
孙其政、吴书贵(主编),2007,中国地震监测预测40年(1966～2006),490～491,北京:地震出版社。
吴忠良、蒋长胜,2006,地震前兆检验的地球动力学问题——对地震预测问题争论的评述(之三),中国地震,22(3),236～241。
张国民、马宏生、王辉等,2005,中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动,地球物理学报,48(3),602～610。
张培震、闻学泽、徐锡伟等,2009,2008年汶川8.0级特大地震孕育和发生的多单元组合模式,科学通报,54(7),944～953。
Bakun W.H.,Aagaard B.,Dost B.et al,2005,Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the2004Parkfieldearthquake,Nature,437,969～974.
Davis J.F.,Somerville P.,1982,Comparison of earthquake prediction approaches in the Tokai area of Japan and in California,Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,72,S367～S392.
Field E.H.(eds.),2007,Special Issue-Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models,Seism.Res.Lett.,78(1),1～140.
Harris R.A.(eds.),1998,Special Section-Stress Triggers,Stress Shadows,and Implication for Seismic Hazard,J.Geophys.Res.,103,24347～24572.
Harris R.A.,2003,Stress triggers,stress shadows,and seismic hazard,In:Lee,W.H.K.,Kanamori,H.,Jennings,P.C.and Kisslinger,C.(eds.),International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology,1217～1232,Amsterdam:Academic Press.
Johnson K.M.,Segall P.,Yu S.B.,2005,A viscoelastic earthquake cycle model for Taiwan,J.Geophys.Res.,110,B10404,doi:10.1029/2004JB003516.
Langbein J.,Gwyther R.,Hart R.H.G.et al,1999,Slip rate increase at Parkfield in1993detected by high-precision EDMand borehole tensor strainmeters,Geophys,Res.Lett.,26,2529～2532.
Lin A.,Ouchi T.,Chen A.et al,2001,Nature of the fault jog inferred from a deformed well in the northern Chelungpu surfacerupture zone,related to the1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,ML7.3earthquake,Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,91,959～965.
Ma K.F.,Mori J.,Lee S.J.et al,2001,Spatial and temporal distribution of slip for the1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake,Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,91,1069～1087.
Nadeau R.M.,Foxall W.,McEvilly T.V.,1995,Clustering and periodic recurrence of microseismicities on the San Andreasfault at Parkfield,California.Science,267,503～507.
Niu F.,Silver P.G.,Nadeau R.M.et al,2003,Migration of seismic scatterers associated with the1993Parkfield aseismictransient event,Nature,426,544～548.
Olson E.L.,Allen R.M.,2005,The deterministic nature of earthquake rupture,Nature,438,212～215.
Pandolfi D.,Bean C.J.,Saccorott G.,2006,Coda wave interferometric detection of seismic velocity changes associated with the1999M=3.6event at Mt.Vesuvius,J.Geophys.Res.,33,L06306,doi:10.1029/2005GL025355.
Roeloffs E.,2000,The Parkfield California earthquake experiment:An update in2000,Current Science,79,1226～1236.
Schaff D.P.,Richards P.G.,2004,Repeating seismic events in China,Science,303,1176～1178.
Schwartz S.Y.,Rokosky J.M.,2007,Slow slip events and seismic tremor at Circum-Pacific subduction zones,Rev.Geophys.,45,RG3004,doi:10.1029/2006RG000208.
Shin T.C.,Teng T.,2001,An overview of the1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake,Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,91,895～913.
Wyss M.,Dmowska R.(eds.),1997,Special Issue-Earthquake Prediction,State-of-the-art,Pure appl.Geophys.,149,1～264.
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